Fire Behavior Comparison

GLMM Surface Rate of Spread

Rate of Spread Model Comparison

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: S_ROS ~ Status * Season 
##    Data: fb (Number of observations: 4374) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Regression Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS
## Intercept                      4.21      0.06     4.09     4.34 1.00     2644
## StatusInvaded                  2.61      0.11     2.38     2.82 1.00     1855
## SeasonSummer                  -2.25      0.09    -2.42    -2.08 1.00     2549
## SeasonWinter                  -1.33      0.10    -1.51    -1.14 1.00     2401
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer    -1.46      0.14    -1.74    -1.18 1.00     2000
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter    -0.80      0.16    -1.11    -0.49 1.00     1716
##                            Tail_ESS
## Intercept                      2915
## StatusInvaded                  2298
## SeasonSummer                   2500
## SeasonWinter                   2183
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer     2327
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     2266
## 
## Further Distributional Parameters:
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.62      0.03     1.55     1.68 1.00     2089     1988
## nu        8.28      1.13     6.39    10.86 1.00     1991     2280
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

## Using 10 posterior draws for ppc type 'dens_overlay' by default.

Surface Rate of Spread Table

## # A tibble: 6 × 9
##   Parameter              Estimate `Est. Error` `95% CI (Lower)` `95% CI (Upper)`
##   <fct>                     <dbl>        <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
## 1 Intercept                 4.21        0.0653             4.09            4.34 
## 2 Season-Summer            -2.25        0.0889            -2.42           -2.08 
## 3 Season-Winter            -1.33        0.0937            -1.51           -1.14 
## 4 Status-Invaded            2.61        0.110              2.38            2.82 
## 5 Status-Invaded x Seas…   -1.46        0.145             -1.74           -1.18 
## 6 Status-Invaded x Seas…   -0.797       0.158             -1.11           -0.488
## # ℹ 4 more variables: `Probability > 0` <dbl>, `Bulk ESS` <dbl>,
## #   `Tail ESS` <dbl>, `R-hat` <dbl>

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##   <thead>
##     <tr class="gt_heading">
##       <td colspan="9" class="gt_heading gt_title gt_font_normal gt_bottom_border" style>Posterior Estimates for Surface Rate of Spread</td>
##     </tr>
##     
##     <tr class="gt_col_headings">
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a::stub"></th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Estimate">Estimate</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Est.-Error">Est. Error</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Lower)">95% CI (Lower)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Upper)">95% CI (Upper)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Probability-&gt;-0">Probability &gt; 0</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bulk-ESS">Bulk ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Tail-ESS">Tail ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="R-hat">R-hat</th>
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##   <tbody class="gt_table_body">
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_1" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Intercept</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">4.21</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.07</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">4.09</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">4.34</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,644</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,915</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_2" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−2.25</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.09</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−2.42</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−2.08</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,549</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,500</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_3" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.33</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.09</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.51</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.14</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,401</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,183</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_4" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2.61</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.11</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2.38</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2.82</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,855</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,298</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_5" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.46</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.14</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.74</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.18</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,327</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.002</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_6" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.80</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.16</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.11</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.49</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,716</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,266</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td></tr>
##   </tbody>
##   
##   
## </table>
## </div>

ROS Conditional Effects

## Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.

Estimated Marginal Means for Surface Rate of Spread

## Season = Spring:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded   4.21      4.09      4.34
##  Invaded       6.82      6.64      7.01
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded   1.97      1.84      2.08
##  Invaded       3.11      2.98      3.24
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded   2.89      2.75      3.03
##  Invaded       4.70      4.57      4.82
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Season = Spring:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded     2.61     2.388      2.83
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded     1.14     0.976      1.33
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded     1.81     1.630      2.02
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Probability of Direction
## 
## contrast              | Season |   pd
## -------------------------------------
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Spring | 100%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Summer | 100%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Winter | 100%

GLMM Flame Length

Flame Length Model Comparison

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: S_ROS ~ Status * Season 
##    Data: fb (Number of observations: 4374) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Regression Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS
## Intercept                      4.21      0.06     4.09     4.34 1.00     2644
## StatusInvaded                  2.61      0.11     2.38     2.82 1.00     1855
## SeasonSummer                  -2.25      0.09    -2.42    -2.08 1.00     2549
## SeasonWinter                  -1.33      0.10    -1.51    -1.14 1.00     2401
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer    -1.46      0.14    -1.74    -1.18 1.00     2000
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter    -0.80      0.16    -1.11    -0.49 1.00     1716
##                            Tail_ESS
## Intercept                      2915
## StatusInvaded                  2298
## SeasonSummer                   2500
## SeasonWinter                   2183
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer     2327
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     2266
## 
## Further Distributional Parameters:
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.62      0.03     1.55     1.68 1.00     2089     1988
## nu        8.28      1.13     6.39    10.86 1.00     1991     2280
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

## Using 10 posterior draws for ppc type 'dens_overlay' by default.

Surface Flame Length Table

## # A tibble: 6 × 9
##   Parameter              Estimate `Est. Error` `95% CI (Lower)` `95% CI (Upper)`
##   <fct>                     <dbl>        <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
## 1 Intercept                 2.12        0.0253            2.07             2.16 
## 2 Season-Summer            -0.857       0.0344           -0.924           -0.790
## 3 Season-Winter            -0.522       0.0357           -0.593           -0.453
## 4 Status-Invaded            0.796       0.0358            0.729            0.868
## 5 Status-Invaded x Seas…   -0.456       0.0496           -0.549           -0.360
## 6 Status-Invaded x Seas…   -0.240       0.0512           -0.343           -0.143
## # ℹ 4 more variables: `Probability > 0` <dbl>, `Bulk ESS` <dbl>,
## #   `Tail ESS` <dbl>, `R-hat` <dbl>

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## </style>
##   <table class="gt_table" data-quarto-disable-processing="false" data-quarto-bootstrap="false">
##   <thead>
##     <tr class="gt_heading">
##       <td colspan="9" class="gt_heading gt_title gt_font_normal gt_bottom_border" style>Posterior Estimates for Surface Flame Length</td>
##     </tr>
##     
##     <tr class="gt_col_headings">
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a::stub"></th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Estimate">Estimate</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Est.-Error">Est. Error</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Lower)">95% CI (Lower)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Upper)">95% CI (Upper)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Probability-&gt;-0">Probability &gt; 0</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bulk-ESS">Bulk ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Tail-ESS">Tail ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="R-hat">R-hat</th>
##     </tr>
##   </thead>
##   <tbody class="gt_table_body">
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_1" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Intercept</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2.12</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.03</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2.07</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2.16</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,401</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,899</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_2" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.86</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.03</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.92</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.79</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,333</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,716</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_3" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.52</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.04</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.59</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.45</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,470</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,764</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_4" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.80</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.04</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.73</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.87</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,131</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,356</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_5" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.46</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.05</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.55</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.36</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,127</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,500</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.002</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_6" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.24</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.05</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.34</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.14</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,185</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,427</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##   </tbody>
##   
##   
## </table>
## </div>

Flame Length Conditional Effects

Estimated Marginal Means for Surface Flame Length

## Season = Spring:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded   2.12      2.07      2.16
##  Invaded       2.91      2.87      2.96
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded   1.26      1.21      1.30
##  Invaded       1.60      1.56      1.65
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded   1.59      1.55      1.64
##  Invaded       2.15      2.11      2.20
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Season = Spring:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded    0.796     0.723     0.861
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded    0.342     0.277     0.408
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded    0.558     0.483     0.626
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Probability of Direction
## 
## contrast              | Season |   pd
## -------------------------------------
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Spring | 100%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Summer | 100%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Winter | 100%

GLMM Surface Fireline Intensity

Fireline Intensity Model Comparison

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: S_Fin ~ Status * Season 
##    Data: fb (Number of observations: 4374) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Regression Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS
## Intercept                   1354.31     28.94  1298.89  1411.33 1.00     2592
## StatusInvaded               1094.24     49.21   998.27  1188.37 1.00     1685
## SeasonSummer                -846.63     37.81  -919.86  -773.13 1.00     2642
## SeasonWinter                -545.87     41.28  -626.79  -467.14 1.00     2374
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer  -740.89     62.40  -860.85  -618.50 1.00     1886
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter  -392.60     66.04  -520.20  -266.91 1.00     1726
##                            Tail_ESS
## Intercept                      2587
## StatusInvaded                  2507
## SeasonSummer                   2665
## SeasonWinter                   2937
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer     2349
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     2288
## 
## Further Distributional Parameters:
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma   685.81     12.55   660.92   710.06 1.00     2871     2773
## nu        4.27      0.27     3.78     4.85 1.00     2581     2617
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

## Using 10 posterior draws for ppc type 'dens_overlay' by default.

Surface Fireline Intensity Table

## # A tibble: 6 × 9
##   Parameter              Estimate `Est. Error` `95% CI (Lower)` `95% CI (Upper)`
##   <fct>                     <dbl>        <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
## 1 Intercept                 1354.         29.6            1299.            1411.
## 2 Season-Summer             -846.         38.1            -920.            -773.
## 3 Season-Winter             -546.         41.9            -627.            -467.
## 4 Status-Invaded            1095.         49.7             998.            1188.
## 5 Status-Invaded x Seas…    -740.         63.2            -861.            -618.
## 6 Status-Invaded x Seas…    -392.         67.3            -520.            -267.
## # ℹ 4 more variables: `Probability > 0` <dbl>, `Bulk ESS` <dbl>,
## #   `Tail ESS` <dbl>, `R-hat` <dbl>

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##   <table class="gt_table" data-quarto-disable-processing="false" data-quarto-bootstrap="false">
##   <thead>
##     <tr class="gt_heading">
##       <td colspan="9" class="gt_heading gt_title gt_font_normal gt_bottom_border" style>Posterior Estimates for Surface Fireline Intensity</td>
##     </tr>
##     
##     <tr class="gt_col_headings">
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a::stub"></th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Estimate">Estimate</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Est.-Error">Est. Error</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Lower)">95% CI (Lower)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Upper)">95% CI (Upper)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Probability-&gt;-0">Probability &gt; 0</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bulk-ESS">Bulk ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Tail-ESS">Tail ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="R-hat">R-hat</th>
##     </tr>
##   </thead>
##   <tbody class="gt_table_body">
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_1" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Intercept</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,354.37</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">29.61</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,298.89</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,411.33</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,592</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,587</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_2" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−846.48</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">38.07</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−919.86</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−773.13</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,642</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,665</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_3" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−545.55</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">41.91</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−626.79</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−467.14</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,374</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,937</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.002</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_4" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,094.61</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">49.66</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">998.27</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,188.37</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,685</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,507</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.003</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_5" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−740.03</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">63.20</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−860.85</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−618.50</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,886</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,349</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.003</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_6" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−392.33</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">67.27</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−520.20</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−266.91</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,726</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,288</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.002</td></tr>
##   </tbody>
##   
##   
## </table>
## </div>

Fireline Intensity Conditional Effects

Estimated Marginal Means for Surface Fireline Intensity

##        Status Season  emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
## 1 Non_Invaded Spring 1354.37   1301.84   1413.09
## 2     Invaded Spring 2448.17   2368.31   2530.07
## 3 Non_Invaded Summer  507.45    458.61    555.39
## 4     Invaded Summer  860.83    802.07    917.62
## 5 Non_Invaded Winter  807.74    748.08    866.36
## 6     Invaded Winter 1510.01   1450.24   1572.48

##                contrast Season estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
## 1 Invaded - Non_Invaded Spring  1094.61   1000.13   1189.22
## 2 Invaded - Non_Invaded Summer   352.45    281.07    429.84
## 3 Invaded - Non_Invaded Winter   701.07    617.55    789.46

## Probability of Direction
## 
## contrast              | Season | Posterior Probability
## ------------------------------------------------------
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Spring |                  1.00
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Summer |                  1.00
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Winter |                  1.00

GLMM Crown Transition Ratio

Crown Transition Ratio Model Comparison

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: C_TR ~ Status * Season 
##    Data: fb (Number of observations: 4374) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Regression Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS
## Intercept                      0.37      0.01     0.35     0.39 1.00     2466
## StatusInvaded                  0.29      0.02     0.26     0.33 1.00     1973
## SeasonSummer                  -0.22      0.01    -0.25    -0.20 1.00     2401
## SeasonWinter                  -0.16      0.01    -0.19    -0.13 1.00     2611
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer    -0.23      0.02    -0.27    -0.18 1.00     2005
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter    -0.12      0.02    -0.17    -0.08 1.00     2092
##                            Tail_ESS
## Intercept                      2614
## StatusInvaded                  2498
## SeasonSummer                   2941
## SeasonWinter                   2488
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer     2379
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     2424
## 
## Further Distributional Parameters:
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.20      0.00     0.19     0.21 1.00     2741     2780
## nu        1.73      0.06     1.61     1.86 1.00     2713     2866
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

## Using 10 posterior draws for ppc type 'dens_overlay' by default.

Transition Ratio Table

## # A tibble: 6 × 9
##   Parameter              Estimate `Est. Error` `95% CI (Lower)` `95% CI (Upper)`
##   <fct>                     <dbl>        <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
## 1 Intercept                 0.367       0.0102            0.347           0.387 
## 2 Season-Summer            -0.223       0.0125           -0.249          -0.199 
## 3 Season-Winter            -0.161       0.0141           -0.189          -0.133 
## 4 Status-Invaded            0.294       0.0185            0.259           0.331 
## 5 Status-Invaded x Seas…   -0.227       0.0217           -0.270          -0.183 
## 6 Status-Invaded x Seas…   -0.124       0.0240           -0.171          -0.0772
## # ℹ 4 more variables: `Probability > 0` <dbl>, `Bulk ESS` <dbl>,
## #   `Tail ESS` <dbl>, `R-hat` <dbl>

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##   <thead>
##     <tr class="gt_heading">
##       <td colspan="9" class="gt_heading gt_title gt_font_normal gt_bottom_border" style>Posterior Estimates for Crown Fire Transition Ratio</td>
##     </tr>
##     
##     <tr class="gt_col_headings">
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a::stub"></th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Estimate">Estimate</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Est.-Error">Est. Error</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Lower)">95% CI (Lower)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Upper)">95% CI (Upper)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Probability-&gt;-0">Probability &gt; 0</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bulk-ESS">Bulk ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Tail-ESS">Tail ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="R-hat">R-hat</th>
##     </tr>
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##   <tbody class="gt_table_body">
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_1" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Intercept</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.37</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.01</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.35</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.39</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,466</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,614</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.003</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_2" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.22</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.01</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.25</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.20</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,401</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,941</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.003</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_3" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.16</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.01</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.19</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.13</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,611</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,488</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.004</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_4" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.29</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.02</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.26</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.33</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,973</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,498</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.003</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_5" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.23</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.02</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.27</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.18</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,005</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,379</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.003</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_6" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.12</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.02</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.17</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.08</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,092</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,424</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.004</td></tr>
##   </tbody>
##   
##   
## </table>
## </div>

Crown Transition Ratio Conditional Effects

Estimated Marginal Means for Crown Transition Ratio

## Season = Spring:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded  0.367     0.347     0.387
##  Invaded      0.662     0.631     0.693
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded  0.144     0.129     0.159
##  Invaded      0.211     0.192     0.230
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded  0.207     0.187     0.226
##  Invaded      0.377     0.356     0.400
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Season = Spring:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded   0.2940    0.2589    0.3309
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded   0.0674    0.0447    0.0916
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded   0.1704    0.1409    0.1995
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Probability of Direction
## 
## contrast              | Season |   pd
## -------------------------------------
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Spring | 100%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Summer | 100%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Winter | 100%

GLMM Crown Fire Active Ratio

Crown Fire Active Ratio Model Comparison

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: C_AR ~ Status * Season 
##    Data: fb (Number of observations: 4374) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Regression Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS
## Intercept                      0.18      0.00     0.17     0.18 1.00     2467
## StatusInvaded                 -0.01      0.00    -0.01     0.00 1.00     2063
## SeasonSummer                  -0.10      0.00    -0.11    -0.10 1.00     2364
## SeasonWinter                  -0.14      0.00    -0.14    -0.13 1.00     1819
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer    -0.01      0.00    -0.02     0.00 1.00     2148
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     0.01      0.00     0.00     0.02 1.00     1760
##                            Tail_ESS
## Intercept                      3089
## StatusInvaded                  2428
## SeasonSummer                   2431
## SeasonWinter                   2321
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer     2438
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     1933
## 
## Further Distributional Parameters:
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.06      0.00     0.06     0.06 1.00     1959     2742
## nu       11.84      1.93     8.88    16.27 1.00     1804     2353
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

## Using 10 posterior draws for ppc type 'dens_overlay' by default.

Active Ratio Table

## # A tibble: 6 × 9
##   Parameter              Estimate `Est. Error` `95% CI (Lower)` `95% CI (Upper)`
##   <fct>                     <dbl>        <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
## 1 Intercept               0.178        0.00231          0.174           0.183   
## 2 Season-Summer          -0.104        0.00318         -0.111          -0.0979  
## 3 Season-Winter          -0.135        0.00419         -0.143          -0.127   
## 4 Status-Invaded         -0.00537      0.00311         -0.0116          0.000758
## 5 Status-Invaded x Seas… -0.00708      0.00454         -0.0159          0.00179 
## 6 Status-Invaded x Seas…  0.0111       0.00507          0.00162         0.0208  
## # ℹ 4 more variables: `Probability > 0` <dbl>, `Bulk ESS` <dbl>,
## #   `Tail ESS` <dbl>, `R-hat` <dbl>

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##   <thead>
##     <tr class="gt_heading">
##       <td colspan="9" class="gt_heading gt_title gt_font_normal gt_bottom_border" style>Posterior Estimates for Crown Fire Active Ratio</td>
##     </tr>
##     
##     <tr class="gt_col_headings">
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a::stub"></th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Estimate">Estimate</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Est.-Error">Est. Error</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Lower)">95% CI (Lower)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Upper)">95% CI (Upper)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Probability-&gt;-0">Probability &gt; 0</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bulk-ESS">Bulk ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Tail-ESS">Tail ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="R-hat">R-hat</th>
##     </tr>
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##   <tbody class="gt_table_body">
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_1" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Intercept</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.18</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.00</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.17</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.18</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,467</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">3,089</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_2" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.10</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.00</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.11</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.10</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,364</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,431</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.002</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_3" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.14</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.00</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.14</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.13</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,819</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,321</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.002</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_4" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right">−0.01</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right">0.00</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right">−0.01</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right">0.00</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right">0.044</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,063</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,428</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_5" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right">−0.01</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right">0.00</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right">−0.02</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right">0.00</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right">0.061</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,148</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,438</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_6" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.01</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.01</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.00</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.02</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.989</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,760</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,933</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##   </tbody>
##   
##   
## </table>
## </div>

Active Ratio Conditional Effects

Estimated Marginal Means for Crown Fire Active Ratio

## Season = Spring:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded 0.1782    0.1739    0.1827
##  Invaded     0.1729    0.1685    0.1772
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded 0.0739    0.0696    0.0785
##  Invaded     0.0615    0.0572    0.0663
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded 0.0430    0.0364    0.0496
##  Invaded     0.0487    0.0440    0.0533
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Season = Spring:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded -0.00537  -0.01161  0.000682
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded -0.01243  -0.01898 -0.006299
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded  0.00572  -0.00164  0.012835
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Probability of Direction
## 
## contrast              | Season |     pd
## ---------------------------------------
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Spring | 95.60%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Summer |   100%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Winter | 93.95%

GLMM Crown Fire Rate of Spread

Crown Fire Rate of Spread Model Comparison

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: C_ROS ~ Status * Season 
##    Data: fb (Number of observations: 4374) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Regression Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS
## Intercept                      2.13      0.03     2.08     2.19 1.00     2106
## StatusInvaded                 -0.06      0.04    -0.13     0.02 1.00     1707
## SeasonSummer                  -1.23      0.04    -1.31    -1.16 1.00     2165
## SeasonWinter                  -1.66      0.05    -1.76    -1.57 1.00     1668
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer    -0.13      0.05    -0.23    -0.02 1.00     1809
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     0.13      0.06     0.02     0.24 1.00     1615
##                            Tail_ESS
## Intercept                      2851
## StatusInvaded                  2322
## SeasonSummer                   2465
## SeasonWinter                   2202
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer     2277
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     2269
## 
## Further Distributional Parameters:
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     0.67      0.01     0.65     0.70 1.00     2156     2796
## nu        9.55      1.29     7.39    12.42 1.00     1909     2285
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

## Using 10 posterior draws for ppc type 'dens_overlay' by default.

Crown Fire Rate of Spread Table

## # A tibble: 6 × 9
##   Parameter              Estimate `Est. Error` `95% CI (Lower)` `95% CI (Upper)`
##   <fct>                     <dbl>        <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
## 1 Intercept                2.13         0.0268           2.08             2.19  
## 2 Season-Summer           -1.23         0.0408          -1.31            -1.16  
## 3 Season-Winter           -1.66         0.0482          -1.76            -1.57  
## 4 Status-Invaded          -0.0571       0.0373          -0.131            0.0154
## 5 Status-Invaded x Seas…  -0.131        0.0554          -0.233           -0.0235
## 6 Status-Invaded x Seas…   0.134        0.0573           0.0209           0.244 
## # ℹ 4 more variables: `Probability > 0` <dbl>, `Bulk ESS` <dbl>,
## #   `Tail ESS` <dbl>, `R-hat` <dbl>

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##   <thead>
##     <tr class="gt_heading">
##       <td colspan="9" class="gt_heading gt_title gt_font_normal gt_bottom_border" style>Posterior Estimates for Crown Fire Rate of Spread</td>
##     </tr>
##     
##     <tr class="gt_col_headings">
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a::stub"></th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Estimate">Estimate</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Est.-Error">Est. Error</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Lower)">95% CI (Lower)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Upper)">95% CI (Upper)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Probability-&gt;-0">Probability &gt; 0</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bulk-ESS">Bulk ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Tail-ESS">Tail ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="R-hat">R-hat</th>
##     </tr>
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##   <tbody class="gt_table_body">
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_1" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Intercept</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2.13</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.03</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2.08</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2.19</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,106</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,851</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_2" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.23</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.04</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.31</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.16</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,165</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,465</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_3" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.66</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.05</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.76</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1.57</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,668</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,202</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_4" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right">−0.06</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right">0.04</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right">−0.13</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right">0.02</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right">0.063</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">1,707</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,322</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right">1.003</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_5" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.13</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.06</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.23</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.02</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.008</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,809</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,277</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_6" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.13</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.06</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.02</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.24</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.990</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,615</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,269</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##   </tbody>
##   
##   
## </table>
## </div>

Crown Fire Rate of Spread Conditional Effects

Estimated Marginal Means for Crown Fire Rate of Spread

## Season = Spring:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded  2.134     2.082     2.186
##  Invaded      2.077     2.028     2.128
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded  0.902     0.847     0.955
##  Invaded      0.713     0.664     0.769
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded  0.471     0.391     0.549
##  Invaded      0.547     0.488     0.604
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Season = Spring:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded  -0.0571  -0.13323    0.0114
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded  -0.1880  -0.26508   -0.1114
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded   0.0746  -0.00867    0.1623
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Probability of Direction
## 
## contrast              | Season |     pd
## ---------------------------------------
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Spring | 93.67%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Summer |   100%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Winter | 96.03%

GLMM Crown Fire Intensity

Crown Fire Intensity Model Comparison

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: C_Fin ~ Status * Season 
##    Data: fb (Number of observations: 4374) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Regression Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS
## Intercept                   2354.08     34.26  2288.35  2421.49 1.00     2114
## StatusInvaded                 20.50     47.61   -71.89   115.95 1.00     1656
## SeasonSummer               -1418.71     47.95 -1511.48 -1326.42 1.00     2060
## SeasonWinter               -1921.69     52.24 -2024.80 -1818.48 1.00     1869
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer  -216.35     66.74  -350.87   -85.24 1.00     1699
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter   122.42     68.70   -13.50   259.16 1.00     1748
##                            Tail_ESS
## Intercept                      2920
## StatusInvaded                  2239
## SeasonSummer                   2615
## SeasonWinter                   2590
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer     2333
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     2526
## 
## Further Distributional Parameters:
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma   796.60     17.19   762.90   830.88 1.00     2064     2369
## nu        5.85      0.62     4.77     7.21 1.00     2061     2456
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

## Using 10 posterior draws for ppc type 'dens_overlay' by default.

Crown Fire Intensity Table

## # A tibble: 6 × 9
##   Parameter              Estimate `Est. Error` `95% CI (Lower)` `95% CI (Upper)`
##   <fct>                     <dbl>        <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
## 1 Intercept                2354.          34.7           2288.            2421. 
## 2 Season-Summer           -1419.          49.4          -1511.           -1326. 
## 3 Season-Winter           -1921.          52.0          -2025.           -1818. 
## 4 Status-Invaded             19.4         47.3            -71.9            116. 
## 5 Status-Invaded x Seas…   -216.          64.8           -351.             -85.2
## 6 Status-Invaded x Seas…    122.          69.4            -13.5            259. 
## # ℹ 4 more variables: `Probability > 0` <dbl>, `Bulk ESS` <dbl>,
## #   `Tail ESS` <dbl>, `R-hat` <dbl>

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##   <table class="gt_table" data-quarto-disable-processing="false" data-quarto-bootstrap="false">
##   <thead>
##     <tr class="gt_heading">
##       <td colspan="9" class="gt_heading gt_title gt_font_normal gt_bottom_border" style>Posterior Estimates for Crown Fire Intensity</td>
##     </tr>
##     
##     <tr class="gt_col_headings">
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a::stub"></th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Estimate">Estimate</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Est.-Error">Est. Error</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Lower)">95% CI (Lower)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Upper)">95% CI (Upper)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Probability-&gt;-0">Probability &gt; 0</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bulk-ESS">Bulk ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Tail-ESS">Tail ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="R-hat">R-hat</th>
##     </tr>
##   </thead>
##   <tbody class="gt_table_body">
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_1" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Intercept</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,353.76</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">34.75</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,288.35</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,421.49</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,114</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,920</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_2" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1,418.96</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">49.40</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1,511.48</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1,326.42</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,060</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,615</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_3" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1,921.30</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">51.96</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−2,024.80</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−1,818.48</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,869</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,590</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_4" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right">19.36</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right">47.27</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right">−71.89</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right">115.95</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right">0.673</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">1,656</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,239</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right">1.002</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_5" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−216.10</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">64.78</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−350.87</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−85.24</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.002</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1,699</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,333</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.002</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_6" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right">121.78</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right">69.41</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right">−13.50</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right">259.16</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right">0.962</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">1,748</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,526</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right">1.001</td></tr>
##   </tbody>
##   
##   
## </table>
## </div>

Crown Fire Intensity Conditional Effects

Estimated Marginal Means for Crown Fire Intensity

##        Status Season  emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
## 1 Non_Invaded Spring 2353.76   2290.73   2423.29
## 2     Invaded Spring 2374.21   2302.48   2436.85
## 3 Non_Invaded Summer  935.81    869.68    998.59
## 4     Invaded Summer  739.09    679.34    803.65
## 5 Non_Invaded Winter  431.58    351.88    518.15
## 6     Invaded Winter  575.24    501.93    650.12

##                contrast Season estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
## 1 Invaded - Non_Invaded Spring    19.36    -67.46    119.73
## 2 Invaded - Non_Invaded Summer  -197.35   -284.83   -107.59
## 3 Invaded - Non_Invaded Winter   143.12     54.33    241.31

## Probability of Direction
## 
## contrast              | Season | Posterior Probability
## ------------------------------------------------------
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Spring |                  0.67
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Summer |                  1.00
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Winter |                  1.00

GLMM Crown Fire Flame Length

Crown Fire Flame Length Model Comparison

##  Family: student 
##   Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity; nu = identity 
## Formula: C_FL ~ Status * Season 
##    Data: fb (Number of observations: 4374) 
##   Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
##          total post-warmup draws = 4000
## 
## Regression Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS
## Intercept                      4.72      0.06     4.60     4.84 1.00     2401
## StatusInvaded                  0.07      0.09    -0.10     0.23 1.00     2353
## SeasonSummer                  -2.50      0.09    -2.67    -2.33 1.00     2545
## SeasonWinter                  -3.24      0.10    -3.43    -3.05 1.00     2495
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer    -0.36      0.12    -0.61    -0.11 1.00     2328
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     0.12      0.13    -0.13     0.37 1.00     2453
##                            Tail_ESS
## Intercept                      2525
## StatusInvaded                  2868
## SeasonSummer                   2602
## SeasonWinter                   2715
## StatusInvaded:SeasonSummer     2531
## StatusInvaded:SeasonWinter     2874
## 
## Further Distributional Parameters:
##       Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
## sigma     1.67      0.02     1.62     1.71 1.00     2736     2407
## nu       39.64     14.11    20.28    74.23 1.00     2632     2540
## 
## Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
## and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
## scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

## Using 10 posterior draws for ppc type 'dens_overlay' by default.

Crown Flame Length Table

## # A tibble: 6 × 9
##   Parameter              Estimate `Est. Error` `95% CI (Lower)` `95% CI (Upper)`
##   <fct>                     <dbl>        <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
## 1 Intercept                4.72         0.0608            4.60             4.84 
## 2 Season-Summer           -2.50         0.0870           -2.67            -2.33 
## 3 Season-Winter           -3.24         0.101            -3.43            -3.05 
## 4 Status-Invaded           0.0725       0.0881           -0.104            0.232
## 5 Status-Invaded x Seas…  -0.363        0.124            -0.605           -0.114
## 6 Status-Invaded x Seas…   0.121        0.133            -0.127            0.370
## # ℹ 4 more variables: `Probability > 0` <dbl>, `Bulk ESS` <dbl>,
## #   `Tail ESS` <dbl>, `R-hat` <dbl>

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##   <table class="gt_table" data-quarto-disable-processing="false" data-quarto-bootstrap="false">
##   <thead>
##     <tr class="gt_heading">
##       <td colspan="9" class="gt_heading gt_title gt_font_normal gt_bottom_border" style>Posterior Estimates for Crown Flame Length</td>
##     </tr>
##     
##     <tr class="gt_col_headings">
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a::stub"></th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Estimate">Estimate</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Est.-Error">Est. Error</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Lower)">95% CI (Lower)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a95%-CI-(Upper)">95% CI (Upper)</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Probability-&gt;-0">Probability &gt; 0</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bulk-ESS">Bulk ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Tail-ESS">Tail ESS</th>
##       <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="R-hat">R-hat</th>
##     </tr>
##   </thead>
##   <tbody class="gt_table_body">
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_1" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Intercept</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">4.72</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.06</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">4.60</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">4.84</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,401</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,525</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_1 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.001</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_2" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−2.50</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.09</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−2.67</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−2.33</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,545</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,602</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_2 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_3" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−3.24</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.10</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−3.43</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−3.05</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.000</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,495</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,715</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_3 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_4" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right">0.07</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right">0.09</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right">−0.10</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right">0.23</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right">0.790</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,353</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,868</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_4 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right">1.000</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_5" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Summer</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.36</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.12</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.61</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">−0.11</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">0.002</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,328</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">2,531</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_5 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right" style="font-weight: bold;">1.000</td></tr>
##     <tr><th id="stub_1_6" scope="row" class="gt_row gt_center gt_stub">Status-Invaded x Season-Winter</th>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Estimate" class="gt_row gt_right">0.12</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Est. Error" class="gt_row gt_right">0.13</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Lower)" class="gt_row gt_right">−0.13</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 95% CI (Upper)" class="gt_row gt_right">0.37</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Probability > 0" class="gt_row gt_right">0.820</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Bulk ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,453</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 Tail ESS" class="gt_row gt_right">2,874</td>
## <td headers="stub_1_6 R-hat" class="gt_row gt_right">1.000</td></tr>
##   </tbody>
##   
##   
## </table>
## </div>

Crown Fire Flame Length Conditional Effects

Estimated Marginal Means for Crown Fire Flame Length

## Season = Spring:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded   4.72      4.60      4.84
##  Invaded       4.79      4.67      4.92
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded   2.22      2.10      2.35
##  Invaded       1.93      1.80      2.05
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  Status      emmean lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Non_Invaded   1.48      1.33      1.65
##  Invaded       1.67      1.54      1.80
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Season = Spring:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded   0.0725  -0.09479     0.241
## 
## Season = Summer:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded  -0.2903  -0.46006    -0.104
## 
## Season = Winter:
##  contrast              estimate lower.HPD upper.HPD
##  Invaded - Non_Invaded   0.1911   0.00236     0.381
## 
## Point estimate displayed: median 
## HPD interval probability: 0.95

## Probability of Direction
## 
## contrast              | Season |     pd
## ---------------------------------------
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Spring | 79.00%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Summer | 99.90%
## Invaded - Non_Invaded | Winter | 97.50%