laboratorio 5

librerias

library(readxl)
library(writexl)
library(ggplot2)

cargar datos

datos1=read_excel("oferta.xlsx")
datos1

## # A tibble: 37 × 1
##       oferta
##        <dbl>
##  1 17560884.
##  2 18110589.
##  3 19138105.
##  4 20416594.
##  5 21097109.
##  6 21769262.
##  7 22544149.
##  8 23790130.
##  9 25003522.
## 10 26697490.
## # ℹ 27 more rows

head(datos1,3)

## # A tibble: 3 × 1
##      oferta
##       <dbl>
## 1 17560884.
## 2 18110589.
## 3 19138105.

graficio

d1s=ts(datos1,start=1988,frequency = 1)
plot(d1s)

## pronostico

d1sw=HoltWinters(d1s,gamma = F)
d1sp=predict(d1sw,10)
d1sp

## Time Series:
## Start = 2025 
## End = 2034 
## Frequency = 1 
##            fit
##  [1,] 64211908
##  [2,] 65351584
##  [3,] 66491260
##  [4,] 67630936
##  [5,] 68770612
##  [6,] 69910288
##  [7,] 71049964
##  [8,] 72189640
##  [9,] 73329316
## [10,] 74468992

plot(d1sw,d1sp,main = "oferta final: 1988:2024")

guardar datos

Periodo=seq(1988,2034,1)
Oferta=rbind(d1s,d1sp)
Dato=c(rep("Real",37),rep("pronostico",10))
Datos_oferta=data.frame(Periodo,Oferta,Dato)
write_xlsx(Datos_oferta,"datos_oferta.xlsx")

ggplot(Datos_oferta,aes(x=Periodo,y=Oferta,col=Dato))+geom_line()+geom_point()+theme_bw()