laboratorio5

Librerias

library(readxl)
library(writexl)
library(ggplot2)

Cargar datos

datos1=read_excel("oferta_lab_5.xlsx")
head(datos1,3)

## # A tibble: 3 × 1
##      OFERTA
##       <dbl>
## 1 17560884.
## 2 18110589.
## 3 19138105.

Grafico

d1s=ts(datos1,start = 1988,frequency = 1)
plot(d1s)

## Pronostico

d1sw=HoltWinters(d1s,gamma = F)
d1sp=predict(d1sw,10)
d1sp

## Time Series:
## Start = 2025 
## End = 2034 
## Frequency = 1 
##            fit
##  [1,] 64211908
##  [2,] 65351584
##  [3,] 66491260
##  [4,] 67630936
##  [5,] 68770612
##  [6,] 69910288
##  [7,] 71049964
##  [8,] 72189640
##  [9,] 73329316
## [10,] 74468992

plot(d1sw,d1sp,main = "oferta final: 1988:2024")

## Guardar datos

Periodo=seq(1988,2034,1)
Oferta=rbind(d1s,d1sp)
Dato=c(rep("real",37),rep("Pronosticado",10))

Datos_oferta=data.frame(Periodo,Oferta,Dato)
write_xlsx(Datos_oferta,"datos_oferta.xlsx")

Ggplot2

ggplot(Datos_oferta,aes(x=Periodo,y=Oferta, col=Dato))+geom_line()+geom_point()+theme_bw()