Electorate Analysis
Manan
2025-08-19
## Reading layer `uttarpradesh.assembly' from data source
## `D:\R Manan\uttarpradesh.assembly.shp' using driver `ESRI Shapefile'
## Simple feature collection with 402 features and 5 fields
## Geometry type: POLYGON
## Dimension: XY
## Bounding box: xmin: 77.08491 ymin: 23.87277 xmax: 84.6306 ymax: 30.41246
## Geodetic CRS: WGS 84## Reading layer `karnataka.assembly' from data source
## `D:\R Manan\karnataka.assembly.shp' using driver `ESRI Shapefile'
## Simple feature collection with 205 features and 5 fields
## Geometry type: MULTIPOLYGON
## Dimension: XY
## Bounding box: xmin: 74.05431 ymin: 11.57448 xmax: 78.57747 ymax: 18.45512
## Geodetic CRS: WGS 84Preliminary Electorate Analysis
## Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
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## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
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## Adding another scale for y, which will replace the existing scale.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'Year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'Year'. You can override using the
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##
## =================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## Turnout_change_pct
## -------------------------------------------------
## Electorate_change_pct 0.976***
## (0.023)
##
## Constant 3.992***
## (0.410)
##
## -------------------------------------------------
## Observations 7,109
## R2 0.199
## Adjusted R2 0.198
## Residual Std. Error 26.722 (df = 7107)
## F Statistic 1,760.489*** (df = 1; 7107)
## =================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01##
## ===============================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## change_valid_votes
## -----------------------------------------------
## change_electors 0.541***
## (0.037)
##
## Constant 37,871.400***
## (5,997.347)
##
## -----------------------------------------------
## Observations 522
## R2 0.291
## Adjusted R2 0.289
## Residual Std. Error 61,066.350 (df = 520)
## F Statistic 213.073*** (df = 1; 520)
## ===============================================
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## New names:
## Grand total (raw cell, parsed): 977965560
## New names:
## Using state column: STATE/UT and grand total column: TOTAL...17
## ⚠️ 2024 rows with NA/0 Electors (inspect these):
## • `` -> `...1`
## • `` -> `...2`
## • `` -> `...3`
## • `` -> `...4`
## • `` -> `...5`
## • `` -> `...6`
## • `` -> `...7`
## • `` -> `...8`
## • `` -> `...9`
## • `` -> `...10`
## • `` -> `...11`
## • `` -> `...12`
## • `` -> `...13`
## • `` -> `...14`
## • `` -> `...15`
## • `` -> `...16`
## • `` -> `...17`## # A tibble: 10 × 3
## State_Name Electors Year
## <chr> <dbl> <int>
## 1 Arunachal_Pradesh 0 2024
## 2 Manipur 0 2024
## 3 Mizoram 0 2024
## 4 Nagaland 0 2024
## 5 Sikkim 0 2024
## 6 Tripura 0 2024
## 7 Andaman_Nicobar_Islands 0 2024
## 8 Lakshadweep 0 2024
## 9 Jammu_and_Kashmir 0 2024
## 10 Ladakh 0 2024## Sum of parsed per-state 2024 electors: 238748
## Grand total from sheet cell (Row40,Col13): 977965560
## Difference (cell - sum states) = 977726812
## National totals (last few rows):## # A tibble: 5 × 2
## Year Electors
## <int> <dbl>
## 1 2004 671487930
## 2 2009 716985101
## 3 2014 834082814
## 4 2019 911950734
## 5 2024 977965560## Nation derived from cell vs statesum: difference = 977726812## Warning: Removed 1 row containing missing values or values outside the scale range
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## Rows: 91669 Columns: 45
## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (19): State_Name, Candidate, Sex, Party, Candidate_Type, Constituency_Na...
## dbl (20): Assembly_No, Constituency_No, Year, month, Poll_No, DelimID, Posit...
## lgl (6): last_poll, Same_Constituency, Same_Party, Turncoat, Incumbent, Rec...
##
## ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.## [1] "State_Name" "Assembly_No" "Constituency_No"
## [4] "Year" "month" "Poll_No"
## [7] "DelimID" "Position" "Candidate"
## [10] "Sex" "Party" "Votes"
## [13] "Candidate_Type" "Valid_Votes" "Electors"
## [16] "Constituency_Name" "Constituency_Type" "Sub_Region"
## [19] "N_Cand" "Turnout_Percentage" "Vote_Share_Percentage"
## [22] "Deposit_Lost" "Margin" "Margin_Percentage"
## [25] "ENOP" "pid" "Party_Type_TCPD"
## [28] "Party_ID" "last_poll" "Contested"
## [31] "Last_Party" "Last_Party_ID" "Last_Constituency_Name"
## [34] "Same_Constituency" "Same_Party" "No_Terms"
## [37] "Turncoat" "Incumbent" "Recontest"
## [40] "MyNeta_education" "TCPD_Prof_Main" "TCPD_Prof_Main_Desc"
## [43] "TCPD_Prof_Second" "TCPD_Prof_Second_Desc" "Election_Type"## New names:
## • `Total` -> `Total...5`
## • `Total` -> `Total...8`## [1] "NAME OF State/UT" "Polling Stations"
## [3] "GENERAL (INCLUDING NRIs)" "SERVICE"
## [5] "Total...5" "EVM"
## [7] "POSTAL" "Total...8"
## [9] "VTR %"## Warning: Removed 10 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
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##
## Electorate Size % Change Voter Turnout Change
## 90 95
Assembly Election Analysis
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##Electorate Analysis of Indian State Uttar Pradesh & Karnataka
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'Year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.## # A tibble: 5 × 3
## # Groups: Year [1]
## Year Constituency_Name Turnout
## <int> <chr> <dbl>
## 1 2023 MELUKOTE 90.9
## 2 2023 HOSAKOTE 90.9
## 3 2023 NAGAMANGALA 89.0
## 4 2023 MALUR 89.0
## 5 2023 GUBBI 88.9## # A tibble: 5 × 3
## # Groups: Year [1]
## Year Constituency_Name Turnout
## <int> <chr> <dbl>
## 1 2023 C.V. RAMAN NAGAR 47.4
## 2 2023 B.T.M LAYOUT 49.2
## 3 2023 BOMMANAHALLI 49.5
## 4 2023 DASARAHALLI 50.2
## 5 2023 BANGALORE SOUTH 51.6## Warning: Removed 1 row containing missing values or values outside the scale range
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## # A tibble: 4 × 3
## Year AE_Electors GE_Electors
## <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 2004 25651989 25651989
## 2 2009 27194864 27194864
## 3 2014 29196047 29196045
## 4 2019 32252383 32497762## # A tibble: 5 × 5
## Year AE_Electors GE_Electors Elector_Diff Elector_Ratio
## <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 2004 25651989 25651989 0 1
## 2 2009 27194864 27194864 0 1
## 3 2014 29196047 29196045 2 1.00
## 4 2019 32252383 32497762 -245379 0.992
## 5 2024 33716965 33716965 0 1
## Rows: 403
## Columns: 3
## $ Constituency_Name <chr> "BEHAT", "NAKUR", "SAHARANPUR NAGAR", "SAHARANPUR", …
## $ Electors2012 <int> 303273, 298985, 349364, 276294, 292273, 266686, 3172…
## $ Electors2022 <int> 372728, 355840, 445458, 358965, 349384, 324347, 3865…
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## Warning: There was 1 warning in `summarise()`.
## ℹ In argument: `Electors = max(Electors, na.rm = TRUE)`.
## ℹ In group 3922: `Year = 1993` and `Constituency_Name = "GHAZIPUR"`.
## Caused by warning in `max()`:
## ! no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
Electorate and Congress Voteshare Analysis
##
## ===============================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## Cong_VoteShare_Change
## -----------------------------------------------
## Electorate_Change -0.012
## (0.017)
##
## Constant -0.344
## (0.299)
##
## -----------------------------------------------
## Observations 3,309
## R2 0.0001
## Adjusted R2 -0.0002
## Residual Std. Error 12.819 (df = 3307)
## F Statistic 0.469 (df = 1; 3307)
## ===============================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01##
## Pearson's product-moment correlation
##
## data: cleaned$Electorate_Change and cleaned$Cong_VoteShare_Change
## t = 4.272, df = 6504, p-value = 0.00001965
## alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 0.02863381 0.07709784
## sample estimates:
## cor
## 0.05289698
##
## ===============================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## Cong_VoteShare_Change
## -----------------------------------------------
## Electorate_Change -0.017**
## (0.007)
##
## Constant -0.100
## (0.162)
##
## -----------------------------------------------
## Observations 21,811
## R2 0.0003
## Adjusted R2 0.0002
## Residual Std. Error 16.767 (df = 21809)
## F Statistic 5.757** (df = 1; 21809)
## ===============================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01##
## Pearson's product-moment correlation
##
## data: cleaned_ae$Electorate_Change and cleaned_ae$Cong_VoteShare_Change
## t = -7.7978, df = 44755, p-value = 0.000000000000006433
## alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -0.04608355 -0.02757979
## sample estimates:
## cor
## -0.03683483##
## Regression of Congress Vote Share Change on Electorate Change
## =====================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -------------------------------------------------------------------
## Congress Vote Share Change
## 1st Party System 2nd Party System 3rd Party System 4th Party System
## (1) (2) (3) (4)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Electorate Change 0.0000*** 0.002 -0.01 0.02*
## (0.0000) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
##
## Constant 0.01 -0.15 0.09 -0.02
## (0.43) (0.29) (0.28) (0.41)
##
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 979 1,926 2,294 849
## R2 0.02 0.0000 0.001 0.004
## Adjusted R2 0.02 -0.0005 0.0003 0.003
## =====================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01##
## Regression of Congress Vote Share Change on Electorate Change fo assembly elections
## =====================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -------------------------------------------------------------------
## Congress Vote Share Change
## 1st Party System 2nd Party System 3rd Party System 4th Party System
## (1) (2) (3) (4)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Electorate Change -0.01 -0.02*** -0.02*** -0.05***
## (0.01) (0.01) (0.004) (0.01)
##
## Constant 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.18
## (0.22) (0.14) (0.13) (0.27)
##
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 6,358 16,150 15,590 3,756
## R2 0.0000 0.001 0.002 0.01
## Adjusted R2 -0.0001 0.001 0.002 0.01
## =====================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
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## Rows: 91669 Columns: 45
## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (19): State_Name, Candidate, Sex, Party, Candidate_Type, Constituency_Na...
## dbl (20): Assembly_No, Constituency_No, Year, month, Poll_No, DelimID, Posit...
## lgl (6): last_poll, Same_Constituency, Same_Party, Turncoat, Incumbent, Rec...
##
## ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.
## New names:
## New names:## [1] "SL. NO." "STATE/UT" "M...3" "F...4" "TG...5"
## [6] "TOTAL...6" "M...7" "F...8" "TOTAL...9" "M...10"
## [11] "F...11" "TG...12" "TOTAL...13" "M...14" "F...15"
## [16] "TG...16" "TOTAL...17"
