CARGAR LIBRERIA

library(TTR)
## Warning: package 'TTR' was built under R version 4.5.1
library(ggplot2)
## Warning: package 'ggplot2' was built under R version 4.5.1
library(readxl)
## Warning: package 'readxl' was built under R version 4.5.1
datos2=read_excel("datos2_ex1.xlsx")
datos3=read_excel("datos3_ex1.xlsx")

d2s=ts(datos2,start = c(2011,1),frequency = 12)
d3s=ts(datos3,start = c(2018,1),frequency = 12)

GRAFICOS DE LAS SERIES

plot(d2s,xlab="Años",ylab= "Nuemero de nacimiento",col="darkblue")

interrupcion…

plot(d3s,xlab="Años",ylab= "Nuemero de nacimiento",col="darkblue")

interrupcion…datos 3

Descomposicion de las series

d2sd= decompose(d2s)
plot(d2sd)

interrupcion

d3sd=decompose(d3s)
plot(d3sd)

interpretar..

## MODELO HOLT WINTERS

d2sw=HoltWinters(d2s,seasonal = "additive")
d2sp=predict(d2sw,9)
d2sp
##           Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun      Jul      Aug
## 2025 27.30020 25.92822 29.04779 27.56001 28.88793 28.50749 30.56943 30.55133
##           Sep
## 2025 29.94243
plot(d2sw,d2sp)

d3sw=HoltWinters(d3s,seasonal = "additive")
d3sp=predict(d3sw,9)
d3sp
##           Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun      Jul      Aug
## 2025 19336.94 20039.00 30337.70 25705.19 24266.11 26903.89 34522.35 37068.94
##           Sep
## 2025 39199.81
plot(d2sw,d2sp)