The Trump Administration has reported that over 100,000 illegal immigrants have been deported since Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, 2025. This figure is on track to increase given the vehement sentiment that undocumented immigrants are behind violent crimes, conditioning the public to be supportive of such mass deportations. With the public’s support, on March 15th 2025, Donald J Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act. The act, previously only evoked during WWII, allows noncitizens to be deported without the opportunity to go before an immigration or federal court judge. Due to the current anti-illegal immigrant sentiment that fuels these mass deportations, this paper seeks to uncover if there is truly a positive relationship between violent crime and undocumented immigrants.
It is important to understand and study the causal relationship between undocumented immigration and violent crime to contest the central claim underlying the Trump administration’s immigration policy, which is centered on mass deportations and anti-immigrant rhetoric. In line with this view, politicians and media outlets alike assert that undocumented immigrants are responsible for rising crime rates, fueling public fear and legitimizing policies such as the Alien Enemies Act and aggressive deportation measures. However, if there is no statistical basis for this narrative, then public opinion—and the significant taxpayer resources dedicated to undocumented immigrant deportation are misinformed and misdirected. This research helps determine whether public concern reflects actual crime trends or whether it is the result of a fabricated issue. Prior studies, such as those by Light and Miller have found no significant relationship between undocumented immigration and crime. Yet, the persistence of this myth highlights the need for continued empirical investigation. In an age where misinformation can shape public perception and policy with real human consequences, this research serves as a critical check on political rhetoric and the legitimacy of far-reaching government actions.
install.packages("tidyverse")
library(tidyverse)
load("~/POL232/POL232.RData")
ls()
head(usstates2010)
usstates2010$vcrimerate
usstates2010$undocumented_immigrants
usstates2010$povrate
usstates2010$unemployment
lm(formula = vcrimerate ~ undocumented_immigrants + povrate + unemployment, data = usstates2010)
lm(formula = vcrimerate ~ state + undocumented_immigrants + povrate + unemployment, data = usstates2010)
model1 <- lm(formula = vcrimerate ~ undocumented_immigrants + povrate + unemployment, data = usstates2010)
model1
summary (model1)
install.packages("jtools")
library(jtools)
summ(model1)
summ(model1, digits = 4)
summ(model1, confint = TRUE)
summ(model1, confint = TRUE, ci.width = 0.99, digits = 4)
install.packages("huxtable")
library(huxtable)
export_summs(model1)
install.packages( c("officer", "flextable") )
library(officer)
library(flextable)
export_summs(model1, file = "table1.docx")
export_summs(model1,
error_format = "[{conf.low}, {conf.high}]", ci.width = 0.95, digits = 4)
export_summs(model1,
error_format = "[{conf.low}, {conf.high}]",
to.file = "docx", file.name = "table1.docx")
lm(formula = vcrimerate ~ undocumented_immigrants, data = usstates2010)
model2 <- lm(formula = vcrimerate ~ undocumented_immigrants, data = usstates2010)
export_summs(model2, model1,
error_format = "[{conf.low}, {conf.high}]", ci.width = 0.95, digits = 4,
to.file = "docx", file.name = "table3.docx")| Model 1 | Model 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | -44.6071 | 375.4778 *** |
| [-297.2195, 208.0054] | [313.1062, 437.8494] | |
| undocumented_immigrants | -0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| [-0.0001, 0.0001] | [-0.0001, 0.0002] | |
| povrate | 23.4406 ** | |
| [6.8708, 40.0103] | ||
| unemployment | 11.4217 | |
| [-17.9716, 40.8151] | ||
| N | 51 | 51 |
| R2 | 0.2344 | 0.0093 |
| *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05. | ||
Findings: This study finds little statistically or substantively significant relationship between undocumented immigration and violent crime rates across the U.S as the coefficient estimate of causal variable (undocumented immigrants) is 0.0000. This gives evidence that there is a neglible linear relationship between causal variable (undocumented immigrants) and dependent variable (crime rate). Subsequently, these findings challenge prevailing assumptions and underscore the need for a revelation of the Trump Administration’s recent immigration policies.