South-Central Idaho Housing Needs Analysis
Executive Summary
The South Central Idaho Housing Analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of housing availability and affordability across Blaine, Camas, Cassia, Gooding, Jerome, Lincoln, Minidoka, and Twin Falls counties. Commissioned by the Idaho Housing and Finance Association (IHFA) and conducted by the Idaho Policy Institute (IPI), this study offers an integrated analysis of quantitative housing data and qualitative insights from regional stakeholders to inform housing policy, investment, and development. Our research identifies current housing needs by unit type, household income level, and demographic characteristics. We evaluate affordability trends over time, forecast housing supply and demand over the next decade, and explore barriers and opportunities from the perspectives of local government officials, service providers, and housing developers. The study aims to support informed decision-making by offering actionable insights to help communities across South Central Idaho address current housing challenges and prepare for future growth.
Key findings include:
Regionwide affordability and accessibility challenges are intensifying.
Workforce housing is a top concern for employers and communities alike.
Entry-level homeownership is increasingly out of reach.
There is a growing mismatch between housing stock and resident needs.
Stakeholders identify the need for more diverse housing types, including small-scale and multi-family units.
Housing pressures are compounded by the region’s economic success.
Younger, newer, and lower-income residents face the greatest risk of displacement.
There is momentum for public-private solutions, but stronger coordination is needed.
Introduction
Access to safe, affordable, and appropriate housing is foundational to individual and community well-being. In South Central Idaho—a region comprising eight counties with growing and diverse populations—housing pressures have intensified in recent years. These pressures include rising costs, limited availability across income levels, and mismatches between housing supply and the needs of local households.
In response to these challenges, the Idaho Housing and Finance Association (IHFA) engaged the Idaho Policy Institute (IPI) at Boise State University to conduct a housing needs analysis for the region.
This report presents the results of a mixed-methods research effort undertaken between June and August 2025. The research team combined publicly available data with custom analysis of local trends in affordability, housing stock, and demographic change. In parallel, we conducted interviews with regional stakeholders to surface community perspectives on housing barriers, needs, and opportunities. The study considers housing market data spanning Blaine, Camas, Cassia, Gooding, Jerome, Lincoln, Minidoka, and Twin Falls counties, tying this data through interviews and regional context to the more populated city sub-regions of Twin Falls, Burley/Rupert, Jerome, Wood River Valley, and Gooding/Wendell. Together, these findings provide a foundation for evidence-based planning and investment strategies aimed at improving housing outcomes for residents throughout South Central Idaho.
This study is limited by its reliance on public data. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau relies on five-year moving window data for estimates for smaller counties such as those in this region. This five-year window typically does not capture rapid, recent changes in an immediately responsive way - major changes can take years to show up in full in the data. Relatedly, much of the data used in this analysis spans the five-year time period between 2018 and 2023. This time period is the most relevant for this analysis, given the available data and need for recency, but it also spans the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have impacted housing and other economic trends in an atypical manner. However, these trends overlap with other economic processes in the region and their effects remain relevant in understanding the context of the regional housing market today.
Even using the moving-window measure to improve accuracy, Census data also faces the challenge of rising unreliability with increasingly small populations, meaning that numbers for especially small counties are more likely to be inaccurate. For this reason, this report has typically grouped Camas, Gooding, and Lincoln counties together, as their individual populations are often not large enough to yield reliable estimates from Census data. Finally, Census data is released on a roughly year-long delayed schedule. Data for 2024 is not expected to be available until the end of 2025 - past the date of writing for this report. This makes it difficult to capture especially recent trends, although we have employed other data (such as Zillow data) where available to close that gap.
Demographic Overview
The South-Central Idaho region has experienced rapid growth in recent years, pointing to a need to understand how the population in the area has changed in its housing needs and its ability to engage with the housing market Alongside this population change, we find that the housing stock in the area has also changed, as a result of aging and new building projects. By looking at how these numbers change over time, we can see how previous needs have been addressed, what gaps still exist, and which new needs may arise.
Households
Households over Time
Total Households over Time - County-Specific
Population growth is one of the most reliable predictors of housing strain, as an increasing number of households leads to increased demand for housing, which can reduce available supply, leading to increasing costs. Populations across the region have risen sharply following economic growth, with new households spread out fairly evenly across the individual counties in the region. However, Blaine and Twin Falls counties have seen the largest increases, while Camas, Gooding, and Lincoln have remained more steady.
Households by Type and Size - Regional
Households by Type and Size - County Specific
Examining the distribution of households by size over time can illuminate changing housing demand trends. An increase in smaller households may indicate rising demand for smaller housing units, while an increase in larger households may point to rising demand for larger family housing. Across the region, the distribution of households by size has remained relatively consistent. Growth in individual counties across the region has also largely matched this regional pattern. However, Blaine County has seen especially high growth in 2-person families, while Jerome has seen a jump in larger households (5-person households specifically).
Household Size by Tenure - Regionwide
Household Size by Tenure - County-Specific
Age of Householder by Tenure - Regionwide
The U.S. Census Bureau defines ‘householder’ as ’a person, or one of the people, in whose name a home is owned, being bought, or rented’1. Householder age can paint a useful picture of population-wide housing needs and preferences. Renting households tend to have younger householders than owning households. However, the region also saw a slight increase in its percentage of older renters from 2018 to 2023. This could mean that older householders are finding it more difficult to own a home. Although this trend is slight, it is consistent among counties across the region.
Age of Householder by Tenure - County-Specific
Overall, the population data shows that the South Central Idaho region is experiencing a rapid rate of growth, spurred by economic development. Although this growth can be seen as an economic success for the area, the influx of new households looking for housing seems to be placing a strain on the region’s housing inventory. This growth is also not confined to any particular household size or type, pointing to a need for a diverse housing inventory that can accommodate a variety of households.
Income
Income reflects a household’s purchasing power. Households with higher incomes are expected to have greater access to the housing market, although rising housing costs can also change this access over time. Median household incomes have risen strongly across the region, with Blaine County experiencing the highest increase between 2018 and 2023. However, these changes in median household income may in part reflect migratory shifts - with lower-income households leaving the area and higher-income households moving in - rather than showing direct wage growth within a consistent population.
Median Individual Income over Time
Median Household Income over Time
A more finely-detailed depiction of changes in household income over five years (2018- 2023) shows that household incomes have indeed risen throughout the region. More households now find themselves earning $50,000 or more a year, while correspondingly fewer households fall below that income line. This trend is consistent across counties in the region.
Households by Income - County Breakdown
Households by Income - Regionwide
Examining the distribution of incomes among individuals moving into the region compared to individuals that have stayed in the region, we find a slow but steady increase in higher income individuals moving in, and higher income individuals choosing to stay in the county, while the proportion of individuals staying and moving in with incomes below $25,000 a year has slowly tapered off, although it still represents a sizable portion of the population.
Blaine and Minidoka counties have seen this trend most sharply, with the distribution of individuals making $75,000 or more per year doubling in each of these counties from 2018 to 2023, while most other groups have stayed the same or tapered off slightly. Jerome County, on the other hand, has seen less sharp increases in high-income individuals, but inversely, has seen significant decreases in the proportion of individuals with lower incomes moving into the county.
Mobility by Individual Income: Regionwide
Mobility by Individual Income: County-Specific
Shifting gears to examine individuals who have moved out of their counties in the region, we find that the proportion of incomes among the individuals leaving the county has remained fairly stable over time, with a consistently higher percentage of individuals below the poverty line choosing to move out rather than to stay in their counties. This could mean that lower-income individuals are finding themselves priced-out of the region, and are choosing to seek housing elsewhere. One consequence of this trend is that other trends we have seen in rising income and reductions in housing burden could be as much a result of low-income individuals exiting the region as higher-income individuals moving in, or existing residents seeing income increases.
This trend is especially notable in Blaine County, as the percentage of individuals below the poverty line who choose to move out has more than tripled between 2018 and 2023. Cassia County has a similar percentage of individuals in poverty moving out relative to other households, but that percentage has remained steady over time.
Mobility by Poverty Status - Regionwide
Mobility by Poverty Status - County-Specific
Housing Stock Characteristics
Understanding the details of the housing stock available in an area can help to identify areas where housing stock is not meeting demand for particular housing types (depending on the needs of the varying households in the population).
Housing Units
Total #s of Housing Units
Unit Characteristics
Looking at housing unit size, we find that the distribution of units by size remained consistent between 2018 and 2023. Most owner-occupied and renter-occupied units have 3 rooms or more, but renter-occupied units are less likely to have more than 5 rooms. While this may reflect typically lower incomes among renters, an analysis of renter vs. owner households by size shows that both owner and renter households have similar distributions by household size, suggesting that renter options may be more limited relative to demand than owner options, especially for larger renter households. This trend is consistent across counties in the region.
Rooms per Housing Unit - Regionwide
Rooms per Housing Unit - County-Specific
Units Per Structure - Regionwide
Higher-density housing options can make larger supplies of housing available without taxing available building space to the same degree as standard detached single-family homes, potentially lowering costs. Having a diverse range of housing options available can also make it easier for households of varying incomes and sizes to find the housing appropriate to them.
The distribution of housing units by structure type in the region shows that the vast majority of housing units are single-family detached homes, while relatively few units are available within higher-density residential structures such as duplexes or apartment buildings. Mobile homes are the second most common type of housing unit, following standard single-family homes. Blaine County has the highest proportion of higher-density housing units relative to single-family homes, followed by Twin Falls County, although single-family homes still make up the large majority of units in both counties.
Units Per Structure - County-Specific
Building Permits
The number of building permits issued has steadily increased across the region, along with the proportion of housing units permitted within 5+ unit (high-density) structures, suggesting a slow, partial shift in priorities toward higher-density building within the region. However, single-unit structures still make up the large majority of permits issued. Permits issued for Blaine County make up a large portion of overall regional high-density permits. Blaine County saw a sizable increase in high-density permits (along with other permits) issued around 2022, although this trend has since tapered off back to 2018 levels. Twin Falls County consistently has the second-highest proportion of higher-density permits issued, while most other counties in the region have few-to-none issued over the last 10 years.
Building Permits - Regionwide
Building Permits - County-Specific
Building Permits - Permitted Units - Regionwide
Building Permits - Permitted Units - County-Specific
Unit Age
The distribution of units by age can show the proportion of the housing stock that is either at risk of needing renovation or potentially becoming unfit for habitation. The region has a fairly even distribution of housing units by age, among both owner- and renter-occupied units, suggesting that aging isn’t likely to threaten a large percentage of the housing stock at once. As of 2023, a smaller proportion of units have been built in the last fifteen years than in decades prior, which could make it difficult for households to find newer housing.
Tenure by Year Structure Built - Regionwide
Tenure by Year Structure Built - County-Specific
Tenure (Rent vs. Own)
Tenure refers to whether a housing unit is occupied by an owning household or a renting household. Shifts in tenure proportions over time can indicate larger trends in demand or affordability. Across the region, the proportion of owner-occupied housing units has steadily increased, relative to the proportion of renter-occupied housing units (although the number of renter-occupied units has stayed consistent over time). This suggests that as the region grows, many households are still able to purchase homes, while stable numbers of renting households suggest that renters are not being displaced in high numbers (although this may be due to low-income individuals leaving the area in higher proportions than other individuals).
Unlike the region as a whole, Jerome County has seen a steady drop in the number of renters over time as the number of owners increase, suggesting that in this county, renters may be getting displaced at a higher rate by owners.
Tenure - Regionwide
Tenure - County-Specific
Tenure by Bedrooms
This data is only available for very recent years
Tenure by Ethnicity - Regionwide
Over time, the proportion of owners to renters in the region has remained steady among white residents, while the number of Hispanic/Latino owners steadily increased between 2018 and 2023 to similar proportions. This data points to potentially increased buying power among Hispanic/Latino households in the region over time. Jerome County is a notable example of this, with trends in owning and renting Hispanic/Latino households reversing over time.
Blaine and Cassia counties are outliers following very similar trends to each other, with roughly equal amounts of renting and owning Hispanic/Latino households, in contrast to proportions of renting/owning White households that match the larger region. These numbers highlight potential affordability challenges for Hispanic/Latino households within Blaine and Cassia counties.
Tenure by Ethnicity - County-Specific
Comparing household characteristics and housing unit characteristics, we find that the region has a fairly strong range of housing options, in terms of size and age, although these options may be more open for potential buyers than renters (especially renters with larger families). The ratio of owners to renters in the region has been tilting toward owners, which suggests that households that want to purchase have often been able to. However, renters look to be facing a tighter market, which may be pricing some out of the area. As Hispanic/Latino households are more likely to be renters, especially in Cassia and Blaine counties, they may be disproportionately impacted by a difficult rental market.
Housing Affordability and Availability
Ownership Affordability
Mortgage Affordability by County
Using an IHFA-provided mortgage affordability calculator with collected Census data, we estimate that the approximate income a household would need to afford a home matching the 2023 median home value outpaces the 2023 median household income in six out of the eight counties in South Central Idaho (with Blaine County having the most extreme discrepancy between the income required to afford a home and the actual median household income in the County). This analysis paints a clear picture of the affordability challenges facing many would-be homeowners across the region. The following data further explores the historical and regional context behind these challenges.
Home Value Breakdown - Region-Wide
The distribution of housing units by value in the region shifted considerably between 2018 and 2023. The bulk of housing units shifted from the $100,000 - $300,000 range up to the $200,000 - $500,000 range, while the distribution also narrowed notably, so that fewer housing units fell into the lower “tail” of the distribution. This points to a significantly more expensive housing stock in the region, with fewer options for lower-income households. This trend exists within every county in the region.
Home Value Breakdown - By County
Median Home Value over Time
Median home value over time paints a similar picture. Blaine County started with a much higher median home value than its neighbors in the region, but every county saw median home values rise by roughly 50-100% between 2018 and 2023.
Zillow Home Value Index
The Zillow Home Value Index can provide a more up-to-date picture of housing costs than American Community Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Zillow data shows a plateauing of home values across the region for every type of home since 2023, suggesting that the sharply rising trend in median home values has tapered off. However, in each county we also see sharp gaps between costs for smaller homes compared to costs for homes with four or more bedrooms, suggesting that homes for larger households may be disproportionately expensive. Blaine County’s relatively flat price trajectory for smaller homes may reflect a higher baseline starting point than surrounding counties, although the County’s investment in higher-density housing options may also help to explain why smaller options have not risen at the same pace as larger homes.
No data available.
Housing Burden
Selected Monthly Owner Costs by Mortgage Status
Across the region, the percentage of owner households with a mortgage who are paying 30% or more of their household incomes on housing (the baseline for a household to be considered ‘housing-burdened’) increased by about 10% between 2018 and 2023, although the percentage of households paying 50% or more of their incomes (severe housing burden) declined by about the same percentage. This could suggest that even while a sizable percentage (roughly 30%) of owners are burdened, the level of burden for some households has become less severe, or more severely burdened households have left the region. Twin Falls, Jerome, Camas, Gooding, and Lincoln counties have all seen increases in both burdened and severely-burdened households, demonstrating that affordability has declined for many owning households in those areas.
Housing Burden - Regionwide
Housing Burden - County-Specific
Owner Income vs. Housing Costs
Median Home Value vs. Median Household Owner Income
Plotting median home value alongside median household income among owners, we find that although median household income has increased in every county since 2018, median home values have grown at a notably faster rate, demonstrating a growing gap between income and home values that undermines household buying power in the housing market. This trend is visible in every county in the region.
Ratio of Value to Household Income - Regionwide
Similarly, the ratio of home value to household income among owner-occupied housing units shifted dramatically across the region between 2018 and 2023. This ratio paints a picture of how likely households are to be over-extended on their mortgages relative to their household incomes (especially households who have recently moved into the area). In 2018, most owner households were living in homes with values that did not exceed three times their household incomes. In 2023, this was reversed, with most owner households living in homes worth more than three times their incomes, and with the plurality of households living in homes worth four times their incomes or more. Twin Falls saw perhaps the most notable shift in this direction, although every county in the region saw this trend except Blaine County. Blaine County is an outlier, in that most of its owner households were already living in houses worth more than four times their incomes, but this proportion has increased sharply even in Blaine County.
Ratio of Value to Household Income - County Breakdown
Overall, the housing cost data paints a picture of sharply rising housing prices across the region, with more affordable options being whittled away over time. While incomes have risen, home prices have risen at a faster rate, resulting in many more households facing higher mortgages relative to their incomes (and thus more burdensome payments, especially with interest rates being higher now than they were throughout the 2010’s). Rising prices have especially impacted larger, multi-bedroom housing options, narrowing the available housing inventory for low income families.
Rent Affordability
Rent Breakdown - Region-Wide
The distribution of renter-occupied units by gross rent amount shows a similar trend to owner-occupied units. Between 2018 and 2023, the bulk of units have shifted to more expensive levels while the lower tail of the distribution has also shrunk, highlighting a lack of affordable options at the lower end, and a concentration of options at the higher end. Every county in the region has seen this trend except for Jerome, which has a similar distribution, but with fewer units in each category across the board. Cassia County is notable in that its rent distribution used to be more diverse than its neighbors, but it now resembles the surrounding area in having a narrower range of options concentrated in a higher range.
Rent Breakdown - County-Specific
Zillow Observed Rent Index
The Zillow Observed Rent Index, like Zillow’s Home Value Index, can provide more up-to- date results than those from the U.S. Census Bureau. However, Zillow currently only has
rent data for Twin Falls County. Twin Falls County has seen sharp increases in rent costs over the previous two years, suggesting that renting households have not experienced the plateauing effect that owners saw in home values. If the rest of the region has followed this trend, then renting households across South Central Idaho may be facing notably more difficult rent costs now than even in 2023.
Renter Income vs. Rent Costs
Median gross rent costs throughout the region have increased, but not at the same rate as median home values. Median household incomes among renters have increased at a higher rate than rent costs have, potentially pointing to increased buying power reducing rent burden among some households. However, as renters still experience much higher rates of poverty than owners, this trend in rising median income may not reflect the experiences of many below the median.
Median Gross Rent by # of Bedrooms
Rent Burden
Rent-Burden - Regionwide
Possibly reflecting the rising incomes illustrated above, the percentage of renting households who are paying 30% or more of their household incomes on housing (housing-burdened) increased slightly between 2018 and 2023, but the percentage of households paying 50% or more of their incomes (severe housing burden) declined. This suggests that even while a sizable percentage (roughly 43%) of renters are burdened, these levels did not shift significantly between 2018 and 2023. Blaine County saw sizable decreases in its percentages of burdened and severely-burdened renting households, pointing perhaps to a combination of rising incomes and departing low-income households. Camas, Gooding, and Lincoln counties saw a combined increase in both burdened and severely-burdened renting households, pointing to ongoing challenges with rental affordability in those counties, even as incomes rise.
Rent-Burden - County-Specific
Evictions
Evictions Regionwide
The rate of evictions over time in the region has not changed significantly, even as populations increase. This could mean that households facing burdensome housing costs may be choosing to leave before becoming unable to afford their homes, or it could point to rising incomes or other efforts around eviction prevention in the area.
Evictions by County
Availability
The amount of housing stock that is available for rent or purchase in an area is a strong predictor of housing costs. If housing is difficult to obtain in areas where demand is high, then housing prices tend to increase.
Vacancy Rates
Vacancy Rates over Time - Regionwide
The vacancy rate (the percentage of housing units available for rent or for sale) in the region dropped sharply between 2018 and 2023, down from more than 2.5% to a little more than 1%. This trend could point to increased competition for housing, leading to higher costs. Many counties in the region show very limited housing stock as of 2023. This trend is especially visible in Twin Falls County, which has seen its percentage of housing units for sale drop to an incredibly low 0.1%, and Jerome County, which has seen its units for rent and for sale dwindle to almost zero. Blaine County has seen its percentage of units for sale drop to roughly 0.5%, while its percentage of units for rent has dropped to nearly zero.
Vacancy Rates over Time - County-Specific
Vacancy Status
Vacancy Status - Regionwide
Understanding why units are vacant can highlight whether a region’s vacant stock is actually available to households seeking a home. Most vacant units in the region are not available, but rather are held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use. As shown above, the proportion for rent and for sale declined across the region between 2018 and 2023, while the proportion that is vacant but unavailable for various reasons has increased. Blaine County has a notably high proportion of vacant units that are reserved for seasonal/ recreational use, which pulls the regional percentage in that direction. Twin Falls County is more representative of other counties in the region, with a high percentage of vacancies still unavailable for rent or sale, but not as many reserved for seasonal/recreational use.
Vacancy Status - County-Specific
Occupancy and Vacancy Rates by Housing Type
Structure Type by Occupancy Status - Regionwide (2023)
This data is only available for very recent years.
Breaking down vacant units by the type of structure that they exist in, we find that the units with the lowest vacancy rates are single-family detached and attached homes, while units in higher-density buildings are more likely to be vacant. In Twin Falls, this trend is reversed. However, vacancy rates are quite low across the region, regardless of housing type. Blaine County, owing to its higher vacancy rates, accounts for a sizable percentage of regionwide vacancies.
Structure Type by Occupancy Status - County-Specific
This data is only available for very recent years.
Availability by Unit Characteristics
Bedrooms by Occupancy Status - Regionwide
Similarly, when we look at vacancy rates by the number of bedrooms available in a unit, we find that larger units are less likely to be vacant. Once again, Blaine County skews the region somewhat, and we find that other counties, such as Twin Falls and Jerome counties, have lower vacancy rates across the board. This finding highlights the challenges facing larger households in the area, as units with three or more bedrooms are more difficult to find and have seen more rapidly increasing prices.
Bedrooms by Occupancy Status - County-Specific
This data is only available for very recent years
Occupants per Room
Occupants per Room - Regionwide
Tracking the number of occupants per room in occupied housing units can help to identify when households are more likely to ‘double-up’ in order to better afford existing housing. Rising numbers of occupants per room can be a sign that housing affordability is an increasing challenge. The number of occupants per room increased somewhat among both owner- and renter-occupied units between 2018 and 2023, but this trend is not very strong, and varies slightly among individual counties.
Occupants per Room - County-Specific
Summarizing the data on housing affordability in the region, we find that housing has become more difficult to obtain, with falling vacancy rates in nearly every county in the region. Even those counties with higher numbers of empty units have many units that are vacant for seasonal, recreational, or other use, but not for sale or rent. These sharply declining vacancy rates are a strong indicator of housing unavailability, which in turn is closely linked to rising costs, leading to affordability challenges as well. These challenges seem to be affecting housing of every type, although larger families with lower incomes are likely to be hit especially hard.
Demographics of Cost-Burdened Populations
Understanding which populations in an area are more likely to face housing burden and poverty can inform policy responses by highlighting where housing efforts are most likely to have an impact.
Housing Burden by Race/Ethnicity
Housing Burden by Race/Ethnicity - Regionwide
Across the region, housing burden rates tend to be similar across racial and ethnic lines. However, Hispanic/Latino households in Jerome County are more likely to be cost- burdened or severely cost-burdened, whether they rent or own (and with or without a mortgage). Hispanic/Latino households are also more likely to rent in many counties than White households, and we find that renters across the board are more likely to face housing burden than owners.
Housing Burden by Race/Ethnicity - County-Specific
Only available for very recent years
Median Household Income by Ethnicity
Across most of the region, Hispanic/Latino households trail behind White households in median household income, but tend to experience income growth at the same rate, resulting in parallel lines over time. However, in Twin Falls and Cassia counties, Hispanic/ Latino households have not experienced the same rate of income growth since 2018, resulting in a growing gap in income (and thus buying power) between the two groups. This gap, if it continues, could result in widening economic disparities.
Median Household Income by Household Size
Housing Burden by Income Bracket
Rent Burden - By Household Income - Regionwide
Rent Burden - By Household Income - County-Specific
Housing Burden - By Household Income - Regionwide
Housing Burden - By Household Income - County-Specific
Poverty
Poverty data can help to identify household types that are particularly vulnerable to housing affordability challenges, pointing to areas of greatest need for affordable housing.
Poverty by Family Size - Regionwide
Examining poverty by family size, we find that larger families are more likely to face poverty than smaller ones. The percentage of very large families (7 or more people) living in poverty dropped notably from 2018 to 2023, but this could be tied to low-income households exiting the region. These findings point to a difficult situation for families, as larger multi-bedroom housing options appear to be most impacted by rising housing prices, becoming less available over time (especially for renters). Larger families are more likely to be affected by poverty in each county throughout the region.
Poverty by Family Size - County Breakdown
Poverty by Tenure - Regionwide
Renters are several times more likely to fall below the poverty line than owners, indicating that many renters could be more negatively impacted by affordability challenges. This also suggests that renters may be priced out of the housing market to a greater extent, while also finding themselves vulnerable to rent increases that tend to correspond with rising home prices. Overall, low-income renters can find themselves trapped in a very difficult position between rising rent costs and unattainable ownership. The percentage of renters below the poverty line dropped between 2018 and 2023, again potentially explained by the greater rate of regional exit among individuals below the poverty line.
Poverty by Tenure - County Breakdown
Poverty by Tenure and Family Type - County Breakdown
Poverty by Age - Regionwide
Poverty by Age - County-Specific
Forecast of Future Housing Needs (2025-2035)
Forecasting can be a valuable tool for helping policy decision-makers to anticipate future needs and respond accordingly. However, housing forecasts for small counties based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) have significant limitations. The ACS is a rolling sample survey. This means that for smaller areas, the sample size is much smaller, leading to a high degree of uncertainty in the data. The Census Bureau provides a “margin of error” for each estimate, and for small counties, this margin can be so large that the data is statistically unreliable. To address this as much as possible, the ACS combines data for small counties (including every county in this analysis) over five-year periods to increase the sample size and reduce the margin of error. However, this means that the data represents a five-year average and may not reflect very recent changes in the local housing market. Due to this uncertainty and inability to account for rapid change, the following forecasts for this region must be approached with caution, as the underlying data may not accurately capture the true housing trends, which in turn means that forecasted predictions are very likely to be inaccurate to at least some degree.
This analysis uses a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to generate forecasts. A GAM model is useful because it can model complex, non-linear relationships without assuming a rigid shape where that shape might contradict the data. Yet it has enough rigidity to extend a straight line out past existing data, taking most recent data points more prominently into account. However, because the underlying data is very limited, and this forecast extends out many years, this model’s output should not be used for high-stakes decision-making.
Total #s of Housing Units - Regionwide with Forecast
The forecast above predicts how the number of households in the region may change over time relative to the number of occupied and available (for rent or sale) units. Note the broad, overlapping error bars attached to this forecast, illustrating that these two lines could likely cross at a number of points. Nevertheless, this forecast illustrates that unless current trends change, the number of households in the region is expected to possibly surpass the available housing inventory within the next few years. Existing data showing sharply dropping vacancy rates supports this forecast. However, as vacancy rates drop, prices tend to rise, which in turn can dampen demand and slow growth in the region. If this happens, then the forecasted number of households may be too high, but this correction may happen at the cost of exacerbated housing challenges throughout the region.
Total #s of Housing Units - By County with Forecast
Examining forecasts for each county specifically (with Camas, Gooding, and Lincoln grouped to increase reliability), we find that Blaine, Jerome, Twin Falls, Cassia, and Minidoka counties are all on a similar track to the region as a whole. Even grouped together, Camas, Gooding, and Lincoln counties simply don’t have enough data or a clear enough trend to paint a clear picture of the future, although the other metrics discussed in this report suggest that these counties are facing some similar challenges to their neighbors, and can expect their housing markets to follow similar trends.
Web Appendix: Commute Patterns
Commute Patterns - From
Commute Patterns - To
