df <- final_data_2023
#Variables
heatwave <- df$NRI_HWAV_EALPE
inflow <- df$Migration16to20_A_Inflow_Estimate
outflow <- df$Migration16to20_A_Outflow_Estimate
net_migration <- df$Migration16to20_A_NetMigration_Estimate
#H1: As climate risk increases, in-migration will decrease, and out-migration will increase.
#heatwave_Regression-1(inflow)
model_inflow <- lm(inflow ~ heatwave)
summary(model_inflow)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = inflow ~ heatwave)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -148552 -17021 -11283 3502 220682
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 2.406e+04 1.896e+03 12.69 <2e-16 ***
## heatwave 9.742e-04 8.965e-05 10.87 <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 35710 on 375 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.2395, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2374
## F-statistic: 118.1 on 1 and 375 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16#heatwave_Regression-2(outflow)
model_outflow <- lm(outflow ~ heatwave)
summary(model_outflow)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = outflow ~ heatwave)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -198755 -16099 -11618 482 362739
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 2.254e+04 2.278e+03 9.894 <2e-16 ***
## heatwave 1.302e-03 1.077e-04 12.088 <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 42900 on 375 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.2804, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2785
## F-statistic: 146.1 on 1 and 375 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16Note that the echo = FALSE parameter was added to the
code chunk to prevent printing of the R code that generated the
plot.
#heatwave_Regression-3(net)
model_net <- lm(net_migration ~ heatwave)
summary(model_net)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = net_migration ~ heatwave)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -231762 -2018 74 2679 73322
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 1.522e+03 9.437e+02 1.613 0.108
## heatwave -3.279e-04 4.462e-05 -7.348 1.26e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 17770 on 375 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.1259, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1235
## F-statistic: 54 on 1 and 375 DF, p-value: 1.265e-12#H2:As climate risk increases, the price-to-income (P/I) ratio of housing will decline over time.
df$PI_Change <- df$HousingPI25_2023 - df$HousingPI25_2018
model_PI_change <- lm(PI_Change ~ heatwave, data = df)
summary(model_PI_change)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = PI_Change ~ heatwave, data = df)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -1.78395 -0.28593 -0.08448 0.21586 2.41402
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 8.860e-01 2.644e-02 33.505 <2e-16 ***
## heatwave -1.167e-09 1.267e-09 -0.921 0.357
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.5048 on 385 degrees of freedom
## (6 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.002201, Adjusted R-squared: -0.000391
## F-statistic: 0.8491 on 1 and 385 DF, p-value: 0.3574#Variables
df$hrcn_bldg <- df$NRI_HRCN_EALB
df$inflow <- df$Migration16to20_A_Inflow_Estimate
df$outflow <- df$Migration16to20_A_Outflow_Estimate
df$netmig <- df$Migration16to20_A_NetMigration_Estimate
#H1: As climate risk increases, in-migration will decrease, and out-migration will increase.
#HRCN_Regression-1(inflow)-building
model_inflow <- lm(inflow ~ hrcn_bldg, data = df)
summary(model_inflow)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = inflow ~ hrcn_bldg, data = df)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -103256 -18465 -12614 1792 225203
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 2.549e+04 2.043e+03 12.477 < 2e-16 ***
## hrcn_bldg 7.498e-05 1.055e-05 7.104 6.13e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 38440 on 375 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.1186, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1163
## F-statistic: 50.47 on 1 and 375 DF, p-value: 6.135e-12#HRCN_Regression-2(outflow)
model_outflow <- lm(outflow ~ hrcn_bldg, data = df)
summary(model_outflow)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = outflow ~ hrcn_bldg, data = df)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -90076 -18045 -13363 -807 415175
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 2.449e+04 2.498e+03 9.806 < 2e-16 ***
## hrcn_bldg 9.929e-05 1.290e-05 7.694 1.27e-13 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 47000 on 375 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.1364, Adjusted R-squared: 0.134
## F-statistic: 59.21 on 1 and 375 DF, p-value: 1.269e-13#HRCN_Regression-3(net)
model_netmig <- lm(netmig ~ hrcn_bldg, data = df)
summary(model_netmig)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = netmig ~ hrcn_bldg, data = df)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -253810 -1648 169 2837 56928
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 9.964e+02 9.805e+02 1.016 0.31
## hrcn_bldg -2.432e-05 5.066e-06 -4.800 2.3e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 18450 on 375 degrees of freedom
## (16 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.05788, Adjusted R-squared: 0.05536
## F-statistic: 23.04 on 1 and 375 DF, p-value: 2.299e-06#H2:As climate risk increases, the price-to-income (P/I) ratio of housing will decline over time.
df$PI_change <- df$HousingPI25_2023 - df$HousingPI25_2018
model_PI <- lm(PI_change ~ hrcn_bldg, data = df)
summary(model_PI)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = PI_change ~ hrcn_bldg, data = df)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -1.76840 -0.27331 -0.06708 0.23186 2.43306
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 8.669e-01 2.628e-02 32.988 <2e-16 ***
## hrcn_bldg 3.137e-10 1.475e-10 2.126 0.0341 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.5024 on 385 degrees of freedom
## (6 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.01161, Adjusted R-squared: 0.009041
## F-statistic: 4.521 on 1 and 385 DF, p-value: 0.03411library(readr)
library(dplyr)##
## Attaching package: 'dplyr'## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
##
## filter, lag## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
##
## intersect, setdiff, setequal, unionlibrary(broom)
df <- final_data_2023
# 파생 변수 생성
df <- df %>%
mutate(
inflow = Migration16to20_A_Inflow_Estimate,
outflow = Migration16to20_A_Outflow_Estimate,
netmig = Migration16to20_A_NetMigration_Estimate,
PI_change = HousingPI25_2023 - HousingPI25_2018
)
# hazard 변수 목록 생성
hazard_vars_bldg <- names(df)[grepl("_EALB$", names(df))]
hazard_vars_pop <- names(df)[grepl("_EALP$", names(df))]
# 결과 저장용 리스트 초기화
results <- list()
# 회귀 함수 정의
run_reg <- function(df, yvar, xvar) {
formula <- as.formula(paste(yvar, "~", xvar))
model <- lm(formula, data = df)
tidy(model) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(
outcome = yvar,
predictor = xvar,
r_squared = summary(model)$r.squared
)
}
# 회귀 실행: EALB (building loss)
for (hazard in hazard_vars_bldg) {
for (yvar in c("inflow", "outflow", "netmig", "PI_change")) {
reg_result <- run_reg(df, yvar, hazard)
reg_result$loss_type <- "building"
results[[length(results) + 1]] <- reg_result
}
}
# 회귀 실행: EALP (population loss)
for (hazard in hazard_vars_pop) {
for (yvar in c("inflow", "outflow", "netmig", "PI_change")) {
reg_result <- run_reg(df, yvar, hazard)
reg_result$loss_type <- "population"
results[[length(results) + 1]] <- reg_result
}
}
# 결과 데이터프레임으로 변환
final_results <- bind_rows(results) %>%
select(loss_type, predictor, outcome, estimate, std.error, statistic, p.value, r_squared)
# 결과 확인
print(final_results, n = Inf)## # A tibble: 68 × 8
## loss_type predictor outcome estimate std.error statistic p.value r_squared
## <chr> <chr> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 building NRI_AVLN_… inflow 1.50e+ 1 4.79e+ 0 3.13 1.86e- 3 2.55e-2
## 2 building NRI_AVLN_… outflow 1.42e+ 1 5.95e+ 0 2.38 1.77e- 2 1.49e-2
## 3 building NRI_AVLN_… netmig 8.37e- 1 2.25e+ 0 0.371 7.11e- 1 3.68e-4
## 4 building NRI_AVLN_… PI_cha… 5.28e- 5 5.98e- 5 0.884 3.77e- 1 2.02e-3
## 5 building NRI_CFLD_… inflow 4.45e- 4 7.72e- 5 5.77 1.69e- 8 8.15e-2
## 6 building NRI_CFLD_… outflow 9.67e- 4 8.61e- 5 11.2 2.04e-25 2.52e-1
## 7 building NRI_CFLD_… netmig -5.22e- 4 2.60e- 5 -20.1 2.08e-61 5.18e-1
## 8 building NRI_CFLD_… PI_cha… 1.25e- 9 9.95e-10 1.25 2.11e- 1 4.07e-3
## 9 building NRI_CWAV_… inflow 1.01e+ 0 1.48e- 1 6.81 3.90e-11 1.10e-1
## 10 building NRI_CWAV_… outflow 1.07e+ 0 1.86e- 1 5.75 1.87e- 8 8.10e-2
## 11 building NRI_CWAV_… netmig -6.01e- 2 7.29e- 2 -0.825 4.10e- 1 1.81e-3
## 12 building NRI_CWAV_… PI_cha… -2.18e- 6 1.88e- 6 -1.16 2.47e- 1 3.47e-3
## 13 building NRI_ERQK_… inflow 8.26e- 5 8.73e- 6 9.46 3.58e-19 1.93e-1
## 14 building NRI_ERQK_… outflow 1.14e- 4 1.05e- 5 10.9 4.57e-24 2.39e-1
## 15 building NRI_ERQK_… netmig -3.11e- 5 4.22e- 6 -7.38 1.03e-12 1.27e-1
## 16 building NRI_ERQK_… PI_cha… 7.86e-11 1.20e-10 0.655 5.13e- 1 1.11e-3
## 17 building NRI_HAIL_… inflow 6.94e- 4 8.90e- 5 7.80 6.14e-14 1.40e-1
## 18 building NRI_HAIL_… outflow 6.49e- 4 1.14e- 4 5.71 2.34e- 8 7.99e-2
## 19 building NRI_HAIL_… netmig 4.56e- 5 4.45e- 5 1.02 3.06e- 1 2.79e-3
## 20 building NRI_HAIL_… PI_cha… -1.23e- 9 1.18e- 9 -1.04 2.99e- 1 2.81e-3
## 21 building NRI_HWAV_… inflow 3.14e- 2 1.75e- 2 1.79 7.38e- 2 8.50e-3
## 22 building NRI_HWAV_… outflow 3.37e- 2 2.17e- 2 1.55 1.21e- 1 6.40e-3
## 23 building NRI_HWAV_… netmig -2.25e- 3 8.17e- 3 -0.275 7.83e- 1 2.02e-4
## 24 building NRI_HWAV_… PI_cha… -7.89e- 8 2.17e- 7 -0.363 7.17e- 1 3.43e-4
## 25 building NRI_HRCN_… inflow 7.50e- 5 1.06e- 5 7.10 6.13e-12 1.19e-1
## 26 building NRI_HRCN_… outflow 9.93e- 5 1.29e- 5 7.69 1.27e-13 1.36e-1
## 27 building NRI_HRCN_… netmig -2.43e- 5 5.07e- 6 -4.80 2.30e- 6 5.79e-2
## 28 building NRI_HRCN_… PI_cha… 3.14e-10 1.48e-10 2.13 3.41e- 2 1.16e-2
## 29 building NRI_ISTM_… inflow 3.65e- 3 9.04e- 4 4.04 6.49e- 5 4.17e-2
## 30 building NRI_ISTM_… outflow 5.02e- 3 1.11e- 3 4.52 8.22e- 6 5.17e-2
## 31 building NRI_ISTM_… netmig -1.37e- 3 4.23e- 4 -3.24 1.29e- 3 2.73e-2
## 32 building NRI_ISTM_… PI_cha… -2.27e-10 1.14e- 8 -0.0200 9.84e- 1 1.04e-6
## 33 building NRI_LNDS_… inflow 4.40e- 2 4.29e- 3 10.2 6.93e-22 2.19e-1
## 34 building NRI_LNDS_… outflow 5.79e- 2 5.20e- 3 11.1 5.14e-25 2.48e-1
## 35 building NRI_LNDS_… netmig -1.39e- 2 2.14e- 3 -6.48 2.87e-10 1.01e-1
## 36 building NRI_LNDS_… PI_cha… 5.40e- 8 5.97e- 8 0.903 3.67e- 1 2.11e-3
## 37 building NRI_LTNG_… inflow 6.18e- 2 4.55e- 3 13.6 2.05e-34 3.29e-1
## 38 building NRI_LTNG_… outflow 6.79e- 2 5.91e- 3 11.5 2.22e-26 2.60e-1
## 39 building NRI_LTNG_… netmig -6.06e- 3 2.56e- 3 -2.36 1.86e- 2 1.47e-2
## 40 building NRI_LTNG_… PI_cha… 1.82e- 8 6.86e- 8 0.266 7.91e- 1 1.83e-4
## 41 building NRI_RFLD_… inflow 1.65e- 4 3.13e- 5 5.27 2.30e- 7 6.90e-2
## 42 building NRI_RFLD_… outflow 1.87e- 4 3.88e- 5 4.81 2.21e- 6 5.81e-2
## 43 building NRI_RFLD_… netmig -2.20e- 5 1.50e- 5 -1.46 1.44e- 1 5.68e-3
## 44 building NRI_RFLD_… PI_cha… -3.19e-10 4.00e-10 -0.797 4.26e- 1 1.65e-3
## 45 building NRI_SWND_… inflow 2.34e- 3 3.30e- 4 7.08 7.00e-12 1.18e-1
## 46 building NRI_SWND_… outflow 3.63e- 3 3.92e- 4 9.27 1.51e-18 1.86e-1
## 47 building NRI_SWND_… netmig -1.29e- 3 1.49e- 4 -8.67 1.32e-16 1.67e-1
## 48 building NRI_SWND_… PI_cha… -5.58e- 9 4.33e- 9 -1.29 1.98e- 1 4.30e-3
## 49 building NRI_TRND_… inflow 1.15e- 3 8.19e- 5 14.0 2.63e-36 3.45e-1
## 50 building NRI_TRND_… outflow 1.35e- 3 1.04e- 4 13.1 1.96e-32 3.13e-1
## 51 building NRI_TRND_… netmig -2.03e- 4 4.58e- 5 -4.45 1.15e- 5 5.01e-2
## 52 building NRI_TRND_… PI_cha… -2.23e- 9 1.24e- 9 -1.79 7.35e- 2 8.30e-3
## 53 building NRI_TSUN_… inflow 3.28e- 2 3.31e- 2 0.989 3.23e- 1 2.60e-3
## 54 building NRI_TSUN_… outflow 4.83e- 2 4.09e- 2 1.18 2.39e- 1 3.70e-3
## 55 building NRI_TSUN_… netmig -1.55e- 2 1.54e- 2 -1.01 3.14e- 1 2.70e-3
## 56 building NRI_TSUN_… PI_cha… 4.24e- 7 4.09e- 7 1.04 3.00e- 1 2.79e-3
## 57 building NRI_VLCN_… inflow 1.27e- 3 3.44e- 4 3.69 2.59e- 4 3.50e-2
## 58 building NRI_VLCN_… outflow 1.19e- 3 4.28e- 4 2.77 5.80e- 3 2.01e-2
## 59 building NRI_VLCN_… netmig 8.07e- 5 1.62e- 4 0.496 6.20e- 1 6.57e-4
## 60 building NRI_VLCN_… PI_cha… 1.20e- 9 4.32e- 9 0.279 7.81e- 1 2.02e-4
## 61 building NRI_WFIR_… inflow 4.89e- 4 5.98e- 5 8.18 4.49e-15 1.51e-1
## 62 building NRI_WFIR_… outflow 5.10e- 4 7.58e- 5 6.73 6.24e-11 1.08e-1
## 63 building NRI_WFIR_… netmig -2.09e- 5 3.01e- 5 -0.692 4.89e- 1 1.28e-3
## 64 building NRI_WFIR_… PI_cha… 1.42e- 9 7.98e-10 1.78 7.66e- 2 8.12e-3
## 65 building NRI_WNTW_… inflow 5.99e- 3 2.21e- 3 2.71 7.02e- 3 1.92e-2
## 66 building NRI_WNTW_… outflow 7.98e- 3 2.72e- 3 2.93 3.58e- 3 2.24e-2
## 67 building NRI_WNTW_… netmig -2.00e- 3 1.03e- 3 -1.94 5.32e- 2 9.93e-3
## 68 building NRI_WNTW_… PI_cha… -5.62e- 8 2.65e- 8 -2.12 3.48e- 2 1.15e-2