Is this the beginning of the end for the Australian Greens?

Samuel Taylor

July 9, 2025

The Big Story!

The big story out of the recent federal election was the terrible performance of the liberal party. This has prompted plenty of commentary around the future of the coalition and whether they will ever be able to form government again, given that less than one in three voters marked a one next to a coalition party on the House of Representatives ballot paper. This is the first time that this has happened since the inception of the Liberal Party in the 1940s.

Another Story

Another story out of the election was the Greens losing three of their four lower house seats. This also prompted commentary about their future in Australia’s political landscape. Looking at The Greens’ primary vote in the lower house, it remained stable, albeit a slight reduction.

The Senate

In the senate, the greens retained their six contestable seats. However, since the election, WA senator Dorinda Cox defected from The Greens to the Australian Labor Party. This along with the defection of Lidia Thorpe away from The Greens during the previous term, leaves The Greens with two less senators than three years ago.

Lower House Seats

Let’s now narrow our focus to the lower house seats that the greens held coming into the election. The below visualisations illustrate first preference swings against The Greens, and strong first preference swings for the Australian Labor Party in all four seats. Out of these seats, The Greens were able to hang onto Ryan (the seat with the smallest first preference swing away from the party).

Brisbane

The swing away from The Greens in Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan were not unique when we look at the other seats in the Greater Brisbane Area.

Note: If you click on an electorate, a pop-up will appear with a link for more information.

Sydney

Despite the swings against The Greens in Greater Brisbane, the party was able to generate swings in their favour in many seats in the Greater Sydney area.

Note: If you click on an electorate, a pop-up will appear with a link for more information.

Australia

Below is the view with the entire map of Australia, where you can zoom in on the other capital cities or electorates that may interest you.

Note: If you click on an electorate, a pop-up will appear with a link for more information.

References

The reference to the data sources used for this storyboard and any other sources used for this assignment are as follows:

Australian Electoral Commission. (2004). House of representatives downloads - First preferences, two candidate preferred and two party preferred - First preferences by party [Data set]. Retrieved June 6, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - Election 2004: The Official Election Report and Results: https://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDownloadsMenu-12246-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2005). Senate downloads - Candidates - Senators elected [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - Election 2004: The Official Election Report and Results: https://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/SenateDownloadsMenu-12246-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2005). Senate downloads - First preferences & quota - First preferences by group by vote type [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - Election 2004: The Official Election Report and Results: https://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/SenateDownloadsMenu-12246-Csv.htm

References (cont)

Australian Electoral Commission. (2007). Senate downloads - Candidates - Senators elected [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - The Official Election Results - Election 2007: https://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-13745-csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2007). Senate downloads - First preferences & quota - First preferences by group by vote type [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - The Official Election Results - Election 2007: https://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-13745-csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2008). House of representatives downloads - First preferences, two candidate preferred and two party preferred - First preferences by party [Data set]. Retrieved June 6, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - The Official Election Results - Election 2007: https://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDownloadsMenu-13745-csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2010). House of representatives downloads - First preferences, two candidate preferred and two party preferred - First preferences by party [Data set]. Retrieved June 6, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - The Official Election Results - Election 2010: https://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDownloadsMenu-15508-csv.htm

References (cont)

Australian Electoral Commission. (2010). Senate downloads - Candidates - Senators elected [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - The Official Election Results - Election 2010: https://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-15508-csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2010). Senate downloads - First preferences & quota - First preferences by group by vote type [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - The Official Election Results - Election 2010: https://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-15508-csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2013). House of representatives downloads - First preferences, two candidate preferred and two party preferred - First preferences by party [Data set]. Retrieved June 6, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - The Official Election Results - Election 2013: https://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseDownloadsMenu-17496-csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2013). Senate downloads - Candidates - Senators elected [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - The Official Election Results - Election 2013: https://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-17496-csv.htm

References (cont)

Australian Electoral Commission. (2013). Senate downloads - First preferences & quota - First preferences by state by group by vote type [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - The Official Election Results - Election 2013: https://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-17496-csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2014). Senate downloads - First preferences & quota - First preferences by state by group by vote type [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Virtual Tally Room - The Official Election Results - WA Senate Election 2014: https://results.aec.gov.au/17875/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-17875-csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2016). House of representatives downloads - First preferences, two candidate preferred and two party preferred - First preferences by party [Data set]. Retrieved June 6, 2025, from Tally Room - 2016 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDownloadsMenu-20499-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2016). Senate downloads - Candidates - Senators elected [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Tally Room - 2016 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-20499-Csv.htm

References (cont)

Australian Electoral Commission. (2016). Senate downloads - First preferences & quota - First preferences by group by vote type [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Tally Room - 2016 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-20499-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2019). House of representatives downloads - First preferences, two candidate preferred and two party preferred - First preferences by party [Data set]. Retrieved June 6, 2025, from Tally Room - 2019 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDownloadsMenu-24310-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2019). Senate downloads - Candidates - Senators elected [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Tally Room - 2019 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-24310-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2019). Senate downloads - First preferences & quota - First preferences by group by vote type [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Tally Room - 2019 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-24310-Csv.htm

References (cont)

Australian Electoral Commission. (2022). House of representatives downloads - First preferences, two candidate preferred and two party preferred - First preferences by party [Data set]. Retrieved June 6, 2025, from Tally Room - 2022 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDownloadsMenu-27966-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2022). Senate downloads - Candidates - Senators elected [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Tally Room - 2022 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-27966-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2022). Senate downloads - First preferences & quota - First preferences by group by vote type [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Tally Room - 2022 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/SenateDownloadsMenu-27966-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Australian Capital Territory. Retrieved July 4, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionMenu-31496-ACT.htm

References (cont)

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Brisbane, QLD - First preference count for the division of Brisbane (QLD) [Data set]. Retrieved June 21, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-156.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025) Federal electoral boundary GIS data for free download [Data set]. Retrieved July 6, 2025: https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/files/2025/AUS-March-2025-esri.zip

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Griffith, QLD - First preference count for the division of Griffith (QLD) [Data set]. Retrieved June 21, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-163.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). House of representatives downloads - First preferences, two candidate preferred and two party preferred - First preferences by party [Data set]. Retrieved June 6, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDownloadsMenu-31496-Csv.htm

References (cont)

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Melbourne, VIC - First preference count for the division of Melbourne (VIC) [Data set]. Retrieved June 21, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-228.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). New South Wales. Retrieved July 4, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionMenu-31496-NSW.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Northern Territory. Retrieved July 4, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionMenu-31496-NT.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Queensland. Retrieved July 4, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionMenu-31496-QLD.htm

References (cont)

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Ryan, QLD - First preference count for the division of Ryan (QLD) [Data set]. Retrieved June 21, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-177.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Senate downloads - Candidates - Senators elected [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/SenateDownloadsMenu-31496-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Senate downloads - First preferences & quota - First preferences by group by vote type [Data set]. Retrieved June 18, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/SenateDownloadsMenu-31496-Csv.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). South Australia. Retrieved July 4, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionMenu-31496-SA.htm

References (cont)

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Tasmania. Retrieved July 4, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionMenu-31496-TAS.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Victoria. Retrieved July 4, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionMenu-31496-VIC.htm

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Western Australia. Retrieved July 4, 2025, from Tally Room - 2025 Federal Election: https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionMenu-31496-WA.htm

Barber, S. (2018). Federal election results 1901-2016 - Reissue #2 (Research Paper Series, 2018-19). Parliamentary Library, Canberra. Retrieved June 7, 2025, from https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/5359594/upload_binary/5359594.pdf

References (cont)

Green, A. (2025). Electorates by State. Retrieved July 8, 2025, from https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/electorates-by-state