County-Level Simulated Gains for Sage (2026 Projection - Top 45 Counties Targeted for Republican Flip)

County	2020 Greenfield Votes	2020 Ernst Votes	Dem Active	Dem Inactive	No Party Active	Rep Active	Gains from Dem Turnout	Gains from No Party Flip	Gains from Rep Flip	Total Simulated Gains	2026 Simulated Sage Votes	2026 Simulated Ernst Votes	2026 Simulated Total Votes
Buchanan	4,292	6,063	2,836	567	4,101	3,882	613	738	70	1,421	5,713	6,063	12,300
Buena Vista	3,022	4,724	1,743	1,289	2,240	3,756	546	403	68	1,017	4,039	4,724	9,283
Butler	2,474	5,291	1,432	332	2,228	4,388	318	401	8	0	430	919	1,413
Calhoun	1,531	3,513	883	222	1,568	2,843	199	282	5	0	267	614	923
Carroll	3,580	7,245	2,422	593	3,938	5,396	543	709	97	1,349	4,929	7,245	12,770
Cass	2,259	4,725	1,200	325	1,782	4,242	274	321	8	0	408	853	1,324
Cedar	4,300	5,935	2,629	545	3,461	4,498	571	623	81	1,275	5,575	5,935	12,037
Cerro Gordo	11,534	11,339	6,699	1,929	7,763	8,826	1,553	1,397	159	3,109	14,643	11,339	27,036
Cherokee	2,002	4,214	890	336	1,377	3,991	221	248	7	0	345	726	1,127
Chickasaw	2,324	4,024	1,632	327	2,089	2,753	353	376	5	0	397	688	1,141
Clarke	1,520	2,906	953	356	1,212	2,344	236	218	4	0	277	530	857
Clay	2,861	5,716	1,529	484	2,242	4,979	362	404	90	856	3,717	5,716	9,869
Clayton	3,434	5,845	2,204	546	2,812	4,716	495	506	85	1,086	4,520	5,845	10,724
Clinton	10,942	12,559	6,811	2,226	8,923	9,094	1,627	1,606	164	3,396	14,338	12,559	28,207
Crawford	2,336	4,424	1,265	864	1,672	3,610	383	301	6	0	438	829	1,354
Dallas	25,427	28,727	17,797	3,519	21,084	23,502	3,837	3,795	423	8,055	33,482	28,727	64,323
Davis	1,167	2,728	833	223	754	2,417	190	136	4	0	200	468	708
Decatur	1,165	2,439	740	360	783	1,994	198	141	4	0	206	431	676
Delaware	3,235	6,454	2,005	380	3,451	4,648	429	621	84	1,134	4,369	6,454	11,202
Des Moines	9,296	9,468	6,463	2,556	6,203	6,965	1,623	1,117	125	2,865	12,161	9,468	22,947
Dickinson	3,791	7,149	2,100	534	3,368	6,377	474	606	115	1,195	4,986	7,149	12,501
Dubuque	25,433	26,034	19,643	5,480	15,049	18,815	4,522	2,709	339	7,570	33,003	26,034	61,755
Emmet	1,637	2,965	1,054	370	1,464	2,304	256	264	4	0	309	560	922
Fayette	3,912	5,865	2,323	614	3,021	4,585	529	544	83	1,155	5,067	5,865	11,404
Floyd	3,498	4,181	1,999	658	2,975	2,854	478	536	51	1,065	4,563	4,181	9,146
Franklin	1,639	3,270	851	296	1,260	2,713	206	227	5	0	287	573	908
Fremont	1,099	2,563	658	237	785	2,376	161	141	4	0	202	471	715
Greene	1,784	3,063	1,100	298	1,475	2,422	252	266	4	0	313	538	893
Grundy	2,120	4,900	1,195	301	1,947	4,122	269	350	7	0	364	841	1,256
Guthrie	2,000	4,103	1,347	276	2,101	3,221	292	378	6	0	363	745	1,162
Hamilton	2,913	4,679	1,654	486	2,153	4,049	385	388	73	846	3,759	4,679	8,826
Hancock	1,881	4,004	1,047	301	1,470	3,392	243	265	6	0	326	695	1,077
Hardin	2,920	5,639	1,864	567	2,163	4,475	438	389	81	907	3,827	5,639	9,936
Harrison	2,574	5,059	1,449	346	1,746	4,470	323	314	8	0	408	802	1,299
Henry	3,457	5,875	1,925	607	2,969	4,870	456	534	88	1,078	4,535	5,875	11,121
Howard	2,014	2,716	1,194	256	2,027	1,691	261	365	3	0	357	481	885
Humboldt	1,443	3,671	806	209	1,611	2,761	183	290	5	0	249	634	925
Ida	964	2,757	522	154	1,061	2,123	122	191	4	0	168	479	673
Iowa	3,541	5,794	2,065	488	3,132	4,584	460	564	83	1,106	4,647	5,794	10,914
Jackson	4,249	6,175	3,137	808	3,232	4,713	710	582	85	1,377	5,626	6,175	12,604
Jasper	7,905	11,405	5,586	1,558	6,060	8,646	1,286	1,091	156	2,532	10,437	11,405	22,821
Jefferson	4,547	4,008	3,117	968	2,061	3,276	735	371	59	1,165	5,712	4,008	10,174
Johnson	57,063	23,773	42,902	11,697	26,448	16,518	9,828	4,761	297	14,886	71,949	23,773	99,084
Jones	4,237	6,320	2,488	506	3,905	4,633	539	703	83	1,325	5,562	6,320	12,383
Keokuk	1,489	3,565	1,013	339	1,255	2,839	243	226	5	0	259	621	930
Kossuth	2,799	5,957	1,721	406	2,271	4,547	383	409	8	0	463	985	1,512
Lee	7,445	8,489	5,368	1,870	4,989	6,007	1,303	898	108	2,309	9,754	8,489	19,138
Linn	69,125	53,248	45,258	12,782	40,986	37,204	10,447	7,377	670	18,494	87,619	53,248	146,530
Louisa	1,804	3,259	1,021	509	1,650	2,522	275	297	5	0	342	617	1,018
Lucas	1,302	3,105	823	225	1,221	2,612	189	220	5	0	236	564	844
Lyon	1,073	5,522	527	214	854	5,811	133	154	10	0	189	974	1,222
Madison	3,168	6,245	2,053	448	2,972	4,908	450	535	88	1,073	4,241	6,245	10,926
Mahaska	2,969	7,860	1,677	751	2,477	6,309	437	446	114	996	3,965	7,860	12,454
Marion	6,269	12,211	3,804	989	5,778	10,170	863	1,040	183	2,086	8,355	12,211	21,417
Marshall	8,187	9,057	5,041	2,206	5,286	7,135	1,304	951	128	2,384	10,571	9,057	20,655
Mills	2,544	5,347	1,510	562	1,700	5,164	373	306	9	0	492	1,034	1,606
Mitchell	2,282	3,347	1,254	302	1,770	2,686	280	319	5	0	394	578	1,013
Monona	1,455	3,054	1,044	216	1,130	2,523	227	203	5	0	243	511	795
Monroe	1,148	2,742	826	240	1,095	2,276	192	197	4	0	207	493	741
Montgomery	1,520	3,633	851	330	1,057	3,026	213	190	5	0	283	677	999
Muscatine	9,381	10,278	5,326	2,647	6,438	7,718	1,435	1,159	139	2,733	12,114	10,278	23,540
Obrien	1,640	5,675	851	361	1,348	5,234	218	243	9	0	289	1,000	1,338
Osceola	657	2,525	292	120	642	2,217	74	116	4	0	114	438	581
Page	2,067	5,152	1,096	456	1,612	5,074	279	290	9	0	396	988	1,452
Palo Alto	1,677	3,113	1,278	351	1,288	2,289	293	232	4	0	295	548	880
Plymouth	3,587	10,145	2,120	776	3,701	8,184	521	666	147	1,335	4,922	10,145	15,593
Pocahontas	1,003	2,641	626	188	1,006	2,126	147	181	4	0	174	458	668
Polk	142,328	106,443	100,740	29,836	75,376	79,114	23,504	13,568	1,424	38,495	180,823	106,443	298,528
Pottawattamie	18,520	24,720	11,856	5,058	12,075	20,841	3,045	2,174	375	5,593	24,113	24,720	51,535
Poweshiek	4,381	5,361	3,028	1,603	3,726	3,743	834	671	67	1,572	5,953	5,361	11,770
Ringgold	732	1,870	445	104	463	1,800	99	83	3	0	123	313	460
Sac	1,440	3,849	791	224	1,469	3,296	183	264	6	0	258	690	999
Scott	45,751	42,941	28,414	11,442	32,084	31,340	7,174	5,775	564	13,513	59,264	42,941	106,566
Shelby	1,989	4,489	1,192	369	1,558	3,842	281	280	7	0	348	785	1,194
Sioux	2,828	15,785	1,396	599	3,099	14,502	359	558	261	1,178	4,006	15,785	20,336
Story	28,216	20,750	16,529	6,702	16,092	14,744	4,182	2,897	265	7,344	35,560	20,750	58,597
Tama	3,588	5,090	2,010	710	2,424	3,943	490	436	71	997	4,585	5,090	10,095
Taylor	762	2,337	439	139	653	1,894	104	118	3	0	128	394	551
Union	2,051	3,820	1,152	341	1,954	3,116	269	352	6	0	380	708	1,151
Van Buren	1,065	2,583	550	155	983	2,261	127	177	4	0	191	463	682
Wapello	6,344	8,464	4,512	2,006	4,429	5,743	1,173	797	103	2,074	8,418	8,464	17,809
Warren	12,478	17,276	8,752	1,965	9,403	13,652	1,929	1,693	246	3,867	16,345	17,276	35,108
Washington	4,519	6,773	2,679	628	3,372	5,760	595	607	104	1,306	5,825	6,773	13,126
Wayne	784	2,186	499	150	676	1,975	117	122	4	0	136	380	544
Webster	6,845	10,195	4,522	1,837	4,828	8,023	1,145	869	144	2,158	9,003	10,195	20,115
Winnebago	2,361	3,336	1,153	430	1,837	2,772	285	331	5	0	429	606	1,092
Winneshiek	5,581	6,039	3,765	901	4,089	4,547	840	736	82	1,658	7,239	6,039	13,803
Woodbury	18,674	24,175	11,076	6,755	11,261	18,666	3,210	2,027	336	5,573	24,247	24,175	51,273
Worth	1,803	2,425	960	248	1,224	2,046	217	220	4	0	311	418	764
Wright	2,063	3,889	1,129	401	1,632	3,194	275	294	6	0	357	673	1,091