Has VAR Changed Football?

A Data Story from the English Premier League (2015–2024)

Introduction

Data Source & Approach

Data Preparation (R Setup)

library(tidyverse)
library(tidyr)    
library(worldfootballR)

# Get team-level stats for EPL 2015–2024
epl_results <- fb_season_team_stats(
  country = "ENG",
  gender = "M",
  season_end_year = 2015:2024,
  tier = "1st",
  stat_type = "misc"
)

Toggle View: Penalties vs Red Cards (Line Chart)

## Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.

Penalties Awarded: Pre vs Post VAR

Red Cards: Pre vs Post VAR

Key Observations

Summarise pre/post averages for key metrics

Limitations & Ethical Reflections

  • Data Gaps: Not every decision that VAR impacts is clearly recorded. There isn’t a specific marker in the dataset for decisions made with VAR.
  • Attribution Bias:Outcomes such as penalties or red cards can be influenced by a variety of factors—blaming them entirely on VAR really simplifies a much more complex reality..
  • Ethics of Automation: VAR is all about fairness, but it’s also stirring up some new debates, like those marginal offsides and the wait for celebrations.
  • Transparency & Trust:Fans often feel left in the dark when it comes to VAR reviews, which can undermine their trust in the decisions made by officials.

These limitations guide us to be cautious in interpreting results.

Conclusion & References

🎯 Conclusion

  • VAR has clearly influenced match outcomes, especially through:
    • An increase in penalties awarded
    • A decrease in red cards issued
  • However, win/draw/loss patterns remain relatively stable.
  • VAR promotes fairness, but its effects are more subtle than revolutionary.

📚 References