Uncovering Youth Crime Patterns in Victoria

  • An evidence-driven story about age and gender patterns in youth crime.

Why study youth offending?

  • Early intervention can curb escalation and reduce long-term harm.
  • Youth crime mirrors wider social, family, and economic pressures.
  • Age & gender insights enable tailored prevention and support programs.
  • Informs policymakers, educators, and community stakeholders for better decisions.
  • Data Source:: Crime Statistics Agency

Total Youth Incidents Over Time

The total number of youth offender incidents dipped around 2020-2021 before climbing sharply from 2021 onward to reach its highest level in 2024.

In 2021, youth crime dropped for both boys and girls, but went into a steep rebound after 2022. Throughout the period, boys were involved in far more incidents than girls. As the overall numbers climbed, that gap between male and female offenders grew even wider.

Younger teens (10–14) consistently committed far fewer offences than older teens (15–17) roughly one third as many each year. Both age groups saw a dip around 2021. By 2024 incidents among 15–17-year-olds had more than doubled from their low, while the 10–14 bracket also rebounded, though less steeply.

Heatmap of Incidents by Age & Year

The heatmap makes it clear that older teens 15–17-year-olds consistently account for far more incidents each year. Younger teens (10–14) have far fewer incidents but have steadily increased over the past decade. This suggests that crime involvement rises sharply as children move into mid adolescence, even though early teens are also becoming more at risk over time.

Year-on-Year Percentage Change

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The Male-to-Female Incident Ratio Over Time

Between 2015 and 2019, the gap between boys and girls steadily narrowed—from nearly four boys for every girl down to about 2.8. After a brief uptick in 2020, the ratio drifted even closer together through 2023 before jumping back up in 2024.

Key Takeaways

  • A decade of fluctuation: Total youth incidents dipped in 2018–2020 (–12% YoY in 2018, –16% in 2021) before rebounding sharply (+12% in 2022, +24% in 2023, +16% in 2024).

  • Age escalation: 15–17 year-olds consistently account for about three-quarters of incidents and saw their numbers more than double from 2020 to 2024, while 10–14 year-olds rose more modestly.

  • Gender gap: Boys commit roughly three times as many incidents as girls, with that ratio narrowing pre-pandemic (from ~3.8 in 2015 to ~2.8 in 2019) then widening again in 2024 (~3.0).

  • Impact of COVID: The sharp 2021 decline coincides with lockdown restrictions—highlighting how external events can suppress or unleash youth offending.

  • Per-capita risk: On a rate-per-100 000 basis, 15–17 year-olds face more than three times the risk of 10–14 year-olds—underscoring the need for mid-adolescent interventions.

References