The story behind the statistics

Every crash tells a story

A moment of distraction, a wet road, a missed light - in an instant, lives can change

This is a story on New South Wales crash accidents, we tend to see only the totals, but what lies beneath the numbers? Coming from a rural area, I have witnessed and heard of countless news on fatal accidents, how deadly can crashes be and how often do they happen, we will dive into them today.

• WHEN are crashes most likely to occur?

• WHERE are they most concentrated?

• WHAT factors shape their severity?

This dashboard will take you on a data-driven journey through NSW crash statistics and connect all the dots and patterns to answer the big 3Ws.

Yearly Trend of Crashes

• NSW crashes declined by 8.5% between 2019 and 2023.
• The sharpest drop occurred from 2019 to 2021, aligning with the height of COVID-19 restrictions, when mobility restrictions, lockdowns, and remote work heavily reduced road usage.
• From mid-2020 onward, the NSW government launched the “NSW Street Treatment for COVID Recovery” program — initiatives aimed at transforming urban transport (Transport for NSW, 2020):
  • Introduced lower speed limits in high-footfall areas
  • Created pop-up bike lanes
  • Widened footpaths and pedestrian crossings
• While crash numbers began to rise again in 2022–2023 as society reopened, the overall trend remained below pre-pandemic levels — a possible sign that behavioral and infrastructural changes had lasting impacts.

Crash Hotspots Across NSW

• NSW crash clusters are most prominent in Sydney, Newcastle, and Wollongong — areas that also have the highest population densities and traffic volumes (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2024).
• These urban LGAs see intense road use: heavy vehicle flow, pedestrian movement, and cyclist interactions — especially on arterial roads and intersections.
• The visualisation highlights not just where crashes happen — but where people and vehicles converge under pressure, making it crucial for policy targeting.

Time and Day Heatmap

• Crash frequency triples between 6 AM and 8 AM, marking the onset of the morning commute. This aligns with the time i witness the most non-casualty accidents
• Every weekday sees a peak crash window from 4 PM to 6 PM, likely driven by post-work congestion, driver fatigue, and end-of-day distractions.
• After 6 PM, crashes drop by over 50% by 8 PM.
• Friday consistently registers the highest crash activity, with intense afternoon spikes. This could be due to end-of-week fatigue and increased discretionary trips (Adeyemi et al., 2021).
• These temporal patterns suggest a strong human-behavior link to crash frequency — and present clear targets for timed safety interventions like congestion alerts or speed enforcement during peak hours.

Weather Conditions on Crash Frequency

• Over 79% of crashes (74,492 out of 93,486) occurred during “Fine” weather, suggesting that weather is not the main driver of crash frequency.

• This aligns with earlier findings:

  • Our heatmap showed crashes peak during rush hours, regardless of day — indicating traffic flow and driver behavior, not environment, is the major factor.

• This figure supports the insight that driver inattention, congestion, or overconfidence during “normal” conditions may contribute more to crash likelihood than poor weather.

Crash Severity

• A total of 79,377 individuals were affected by road crashes across NSW.

• 1,533 fatalities were recorded — while numerically smallest, they represent the most tragic and irreversible outcome.

• The majority of injuries were moderate (33,841) and minor (22,598), making up over 70% of all cases.

• Serious injuries (21,405) also account for a significant portion.

• These figures suggest that even non-fatal crashes carry a major burden, both for individuals and the healthcare system.

Let’s take a deeper look

Not all crashes are equal - crash on a high-speed rural road may be far more deadly than one in an urban 50 km/h zone.

Our questions:

• How does urbanisation impact the type and severity of injuries?

• Do speed limits correlate with higher fatality or serious injury rates?

Crash Severity by Urbanisation

Country Areas

• Higher fatality rates: Despite fewer crashes, Fatal and Serious injuries are significantly higher in Country non-urban and Country urban areas.

• Notably deadly: Country non-urban alone accounts for 624 deaths — more than all metro regions combined — despite having lower crash volume.

• Likely due to higher speed limits, limited roadside barriers, or slower emergency response.

Metro Areas

• Sydney metro dominates all injury categories in volume, but:

  • The majority are Minor or Moderate injuries.

  • Fatalities in Sydney (416) are fewer than in Country non-urban, again despite far more crashes overall.

• This supports the idea that dense traffic and lower speed limits in urban areas reduce injury severity even when crashes are frequent (Australian Automobile Association, 2023).

Crash Severity by Speed Limit

• Country urban areas show more crashes in lower ranges

• Country non-urban areas show most crashes in high-speed zones (100+ km/h)

  The contrast suggests different crash mechanisms: volume-driven crashes in towns vs. speed-driven crashes in remote areas.

• Crashes are densely concentrated in <60 km/h and 60–70 km/h zones across all metro regions.

• Sydney metro dominates crash frequency — especially at 60–70 km/h,

• Very few crashes occur at speeds above 80 km/h, suggesting high-speed roads are rare or better protected in cities.

Conclusion

Crashes can happen anywhere, anytime. However the clearest trend was that higher traffic density cause more casual accidents while higher speed limit leads to higher fatality. Alongside of some key insights we gathered, a snapshot of NSW Road Crash Severity is captured.

Human behavior was the driving factor for the crash severity and frequency. Sometimes it was caused by impatience, sometimes recklessness. In addition to rural area having less resource and longer time for emergency responders to arrive, moderate to serious crashes turned deadly. However, revert back to our initial curiosity, the 3Ws are answered, When, Where, and What:

• Peak crash periods occur during weekday afternoons (4–6 PM), showing strong correlation with commuter traffic.
• Urbanisation and speed zones matter: country highways see more severe, high-speed crashes, while cities experience frequent but lower-speed incidents.
• Crash severity increases sharply above 80 km/h, reinforcing the need for speed enforcement and infrastructure investment in rural zones.

With these information, I can now be more alert as well as encourage my loved ones to be cautious and be safe by always checking the 3Ws when driving.

References

• Adeyemi, O. J., Arif, A. A., & Paul, R. (2021). Exploring the relationship of rush hour period and fatal and non-fatal crash injuries in the U.S.: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Accident; analysis and prevention, 163, 106462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106462
• Australian Automobile Association. (2023, February 28). New analysis reveals regional road trauma challenge. Australia Automobile Association. https://www.aaa.asn.au/2023/02/new-analysis-reveals-regional-road-trauma-challenge/
• Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2024). National, state and territory population. ABS. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release
• NSW Government. (n.d). NSW Road Crash Data – 2019-2023 – CRASH [data set], NSW Government website. https://data.nsw.gov.au/data/dataset/2-nsw-crash-data
• Transport for NSW. (2020). NSW Street Treatments for COVID recovery, Transport NSW Government. https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/system/files/media/documents/2023/nsw-street-treatments-for-covid-recovery.pdf