Introduction

• Audience : Law-makers, policy advisors, and the general public.
• Goal : Provide a clear, data-driven overview of crime trends in Victoria to inform policy decisions and empower public understanding.
• Data : Victoria Crime Statistics Agency Data, covering offences recorded from January 2015 to December 2024.
• Link to Data :“https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-victorian-crime-data/download-data”
• Main Components : Overall yearly trends, detailed analysis of offence categories, and interactive data exploration.

Reference to data source:

Crime Statistics Agency Victoria. (2024). Latest Victorian Crime Data: Year Ending 31 December 2024. Retrieved from https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-victorian-crime-data/year-ending-31-december-2024

Overall Crime Trends (2015-2024)

• Overall Fluctuation: Crime levels have shown a fluctuating trend over the decade rather than a steady increase or decrease, with notable peaks and dips.
• Lowest Point in 2021: The number of recorded offences dropped significantly in 2021, reaching the lowest point in the decade—likely influenced by COVID-19 lockdowns and mobility restrictions.
• Sharp Rise in 2024: There’s a dramatic surge in offences in 2024, surpassing previous years, indicating a sharp upward trend in the most recent data.

(Interactive feature: Hover over any point to see the exact year and total offence count.)

Crime Categories Breakdown (2024)

• Property and Deception Offences Dominate: Category B (Property and deception offences) accounts for 58.4% of all crimes in 2024, making it by far the most prevalent category.
• Two Categories Make Up Over 70%: Combined, A (Crimes against the person – 15.7%) and E (Justice procedures offences – 15.6%) represent over 31% of the total, alongside Property crimes, which together account for nearly 90% of all offences.
• Other Categories Are Minimal: Drug offences (5.35%), public order/security offences (4.7%), and other offences (0.263%) make up a relatively small share, highlighting a more concentrated distribution in a few categories.

(Interactive feature: Hover over any point to see the exact year and crime percentage.)

Violent Crimes Trend

• Steady Increase: Violent crimes have shown a gradual increase over the decade, with no major drops, suggesting a persistent upward trend.
• Peak in 2024: The highest number of violent crimes occurred in 2024, reaching close to 95,000+, marking the peak for the 10-year period.
• Stability with Minor Fluctuations: Between 2018 and 2022, the trend remained relatively stable with only slight year-to-year changes before a sharp rise in 2023 and 2024.

Property vs Violent Crimes Comparison

• Property and deception offenses (blue line) are consistently and significantly higher than crimes against the person (red line) throughout the entire period from 2015 to 2024. The number of property and deception offenses is in the hundreds of thousands annually, while crimes against the person remain below 100,000 for all displayed years.
• Property and deception offenses show a general downward trend over the decade, with some fluctuations. While there was a peak around 2019, the overall trajectory from 2015 to 2024 indicates a decrease in these types of crimes.
• Crimes against the person (violent crimes) have remained relatively stable with minor fluctuations, showing a slight increase in recent years (around 2023-2024). Unlike property crimes, which saw a noticeable drop, violent crimes have largely stayed within a similar range, with a small upward trend towards the end of the period shown.

Top 10 Offence Subgroups (2024)

• “Steal from a motor vehicle” (B42) is overwhelmingly the most common offense subgroup in 2024, with significantly more occurrences than any other category. At 75,731 offenses, it stands out as the primary issue compared to the next highest, “Breach family violence order,” which is at 61,922 offenses.
• Offenses related to theft (stealing) feature prominently among the top subgroups, occupying multiple positions within the top 10. “Steal from a motor vehicle” (B42), “Other theft” (B49), “Steal from a retail store” (B43), and “Motor vehicle theft” (B41) all appear, indicating that various forms of theft are a significant concern in 2024.
• “Breach family violence order” (E21) is the second most common offense, highlighting a substantial number of incidents related to domestic and family violence. Its high ranking underscores the prevalence and importance of addressing this specific type of offense within the overall crime landscape.

Theft Offences Over Time

• “Steal from a motor vehicle” (B42) consistently ranks as the highest volume theft offense throughout the entire period from 2015 to 2024. While other theft categories fluctuate, B42 generally stays above all others, frequently exceeding 60,000 offenses annually.
• There is a notable decrease in “Steal from a motor vehicle” (B42) offenses from around 2018-2019 to 2020-2021, before a slight rebound. After peaking, there’s a dip, likely influenced by factors like lockdowns, followed by a minor increase in recent years.
• “Motor vehicle theft” (B41) and “Steal from a retail store” (B43) show differing trends but remain significant categories. Motor vehicle theft (B41) generally hovers around the 30,000-40,000 mark with some fluctuations, while “Steal from a retail store” (B43) shows a general upward trend, especially in the later years of the dataset, indicating a potential rise in retail crime.

Crime Rate per 100,000 Population

• “Property and deception offenses” (B - green dots) consistently have the highest crime rate per 100,000 population across the entire period from 2016 to 2024. While other categories remain significantly lower, property and deception offenses generally fluctuate between 100 and 150 per 100,000, indicating they are the most prevalent type of crime relative to population size.
• “Crimes against the person” (A - red dots) consistently represent the second-highest crime rate, generally hovering between 50 and 100 per 100,000 population. This highlights that despite property crimes being more numerous, crimes directly impacting individuals remain a significant concern.
• The crime rates for most categories (including “Crimes against the person,” “Drug offenses,” “Public order and security offenses,” “Justice procedures offenses,” and “Other offenses”) show relative stability or slight fluctuations, without drastic increases or decreases, over the displayed period. While “Property and deception offenses” show some variability, the other categories largely maintain their respective rates, suggesting no major systemic shift in their prevalence per capita.

Conclusion

1. Key Takeaways:

   • 2024 Crime Surge: Overall crime drastically increased in 2024, reversing the 2021 COVID-19 dip.
   • Property Dominance: Property & deception offenses are the largest category (58.4% in 2024), with high rates of vehicle and retail theft.
   • Violent Crime Rise: “Crimes against the person” are steadily increasing, peaking in 2024 (95,000+), driven partly by family violence breaches.
   • Crime Concentration: Nearly 90% of offenses are property, violent, or justice procedure related.

2. Policy Recommendations:

   • Address 2024 Surge: Implement urgent, data-driven responses to the recent crime spike.
   • Target Property Crime: Enhance prevention for property/deception offenses, focusing on theft.
   • Combat Violent Crime: Strengthen initiatives against rising violent crime, including family violence.
   • Strategic Resourcing: Prioritize resources for dominant crime categories and high-increase areas.

3. Public Safety Tips:

   • Secure Property: Lock vehicles/homes; remove valuables.
   • Stay Alert: Be aware of surroundings; report suspicious activity.
   • Report Family Violence: Report breaches; seek support if affected.