HISPANIOLA: AN ISLAND OF STARK CONTRASTS

SLUMS ON EITHER SIDE: NOT AN EQUAL SIGHT

  • From a sky high of ~30% in 2000 to ~11% in 2023, Dominican Republic has made massive strides in reducing the number of people living in its slums
  • Stable leadership and favourable economic conditions have led to this reduction
  • The Dominican Republic is consistently regarded as a bright star in the Carribbean region
  • The other side of the island however, paints a rather dismal picture
  • ~50% of Haiti’s population lives in slums with little to no access to basic amenities
  • Haiti is consistently regarded as one of the most poorest countries on the planet

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JOBLESSNESS GALORE - NOT SO MUCH ACROSS THE ROAD

  • Since the onset of the 2000s, unemployment has always been below 10% in the Dominican Republic
  • It however rose to its highest level in 2021 to ~7.7%
  • This was due to COVID related business closures and lock downs before unemployment fell yet again
  • Haiti meanwhile, has struggled with high unemployment. In 2000, Haiti went to the polls and former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide won by a landslide
  • His tenure though was marred by political instability and poor governance which helped skyrocket Haiti’s unemployment rate, reaching a high of ~16.8% in 2007
  • In 2006, René Préval was elected as the new President. He made fiscal reforms that helped reduce unemployment by a bit, yet Haiti still suffers from high unemployment to this day

POVERTY & UNEMPLOYMENT - CRIME’S BEST FRIENDS

  • The homicide rate in Dominican Republic was surprisingly, at a time, higher than that of Haiti
  • From 2001 on wards, a rise in cocaine trafficking by drug cartels and extrajudicial killings by the Dominican police contributed to rising homicides which reached as high as 26 in 2005
  • They fluctuated post 2005 until the 2012 elections where Danilo Medina was elected president. Homicides have been on an overall downward trend since then
  • In contrast, Haiti’s comparatively lower homicide rates seemed to be in control
  • This changed from 2018 on wards where historically high unemployment, mass poverty and years of political instability made conditions ripe for the outbreak of the Haitian crisis
  • Homicides have since skyrocketed to ~40 in 2023 making it one of the highest homicide rates and also one of the most dangerous countries on the planet

THE GRASS IS GREENER ON THE OTHER SIDE

  • Skyrocketing GDP per capita boosted by a booming economy and a growing tourism sector has seen the Dominican Republic grow from a lower middle income to an upper middle income country in a span of nearly 20 years
  • The average Dominican is now almost 8x richer than their Haitian counterparts with a per capita income of ~$23,000
  • This growth has made it one of the richest countries in the Caribbean and Latin America as well
  • Nonetheless, the other side of the island paints a very different picture. Haiti’s per capita has barely changed over the years
  • It continues to remain a low income economy with per capita incomes hovering around ~$2,950. Incomes took a slight dip in 2019 however, just one year after the start of the Haitian crisis
  • It remains the poorest country in the Western hemisphere

BULL V/S BEAR

  • A growing Dominican economy only helped the rise in per capita incomes. It is the seventh largest economy in Latin America with a GDP of ~$262 billion
  • The Dominican economy is consistently ranked as a star performer in the region and is considered to be one of the most promising and fastest growing economies in Latin America
  • The only exception in this rise came in 2020 when COVID and lockdowns imposed by the government led to financial losses and business closures. The tourism sector (largest revenue generator) took a massive hit during this period. This caused the economy and per capita incomes to plunge before they rose again
  • Haiti’s economy, much like its per capita income, has barely witnessed any growth
  • With a GDP of only ~$34.4 billion, Haiti’s economy continues to suffer from a lack of strong leadership and clear roadmap for development due to which it has suffered from an economic collapse
  • The Haitian Crisis has only exacerbated already dire economic conditions in Haiti

TAMING INFLATION - VARYING RAMIFICATIONS

  • There was a time though when the Dominican economy was in dire straits
  • After the boom time era of the ’90s, in late 2002 irregularities in the nation’s biggest banks were found which culminated into a full blown banking crisis known as the Dominican banking crisis where inflation rates ballooned, reaching a sky high value of 51.5% in 2004
  • In 2004, Leonel Fernández, new president elect, implemented fiscal reforms to help bring the economy on track. This combined with help from the IMF and Paris Club of Creditors helped in recovery 2005 on wards. Inflation has remained low and in control ever since
  • Haiti also saw a massive surge in inflation in 2002, around the same time as its neighbour, but due to completely different reasons
  • Political turmoil, mass riots and a declining economy saw inflation shoot up and reach a high of ~28.6% in 2003
  • Fast forward to 2008, increasing public resentment due to high food prices, political discontent and persisting socio-economic conditions led to massive riots yet again. Add to this the destructive hurricane season of that year and conditions were once again ripe for high inflation which fell after 2008 and seemed to rise once again from 2014 on wards and only made worse by the Haitian Crisis

ELECTION INTEGRITY & RULE OF LAW & ORDER

  • Elections in the Dominican Republic are largely lawful and orderly apart from the usual allegations of unfairness from opposition parties
  • Electoral processes and institutions have integrity and there is rule of law and order with military spending at an all time high to prevent both crime and illegal immigration
  • On the other hand, Haiti’s elections are far from being fair and free. Irregularities are common place and law and order is a massive problem
  • Add to this, the lack of a military force until 2018 which made matters worse
  • As it stands, it is estimated that ~80% of Port-au-Prince (the capital) is controlled by armed gangs and so is much of the country. Regular road blockades and an outgunned military and police force only make matters worse
  • While the Dominican Republic paved its path to prosperity and has now become a leading economy in the region, Haiti continues to suffer from high gang violence, political instability, economic collapse and mass poverty, clearly living up to its failed country status

REFERENCES

  1. 4DMAPART. (n.d.). Hispaniola satellite - etsy. https://www.etsy.com/listing/1033056748/hispaniola-satellite
  2. Writer, G. (2021, December 25). The Dominican Republic is building an anti-haiti wall. The Second Angle. https://thesecondangle.com/dominican-republic-building-anti-haiti-wall/
  3. United Nations Human Settlements Programme – processed by Our World in Data. “Share of the urban population living in slums” [dataset]. United Nations Human Settlements Programme, “United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT), National Statistical Office” [original data]. Retrieved June 11, 2025 from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-urban-population-living-in-slums
  4. International Labour Organization (via World Bank) (2025) – processed by Our World in Data. “Unemployment rate” [dataset]. International Labour Organization (via World Bank), “World Development Indicators” [original data]. Retrieved June 11, 2025 from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/unemployment-rate
  5. UN, World Population Prospects (2024); United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (2025) – with major processing by Our World in Data. “Homicide rate per 100,000 population” [dataset]. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime - Intentional Homicide Victims”; United Nations, “World Population Prospects”; Various sources, “Population” [original data]. Retrieved June 11, 2025 from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/homicide-rate-unodc
  6. Data compiled from multiple sources by World Bank (2025) – with minor processing by Our World in Data. “GDP per capita – World Bank – In constant international-$” [dataset]. Data compiled from multiple sources by World Bank, “World Development Indicators” [original data]. Retrieved June 11, 2025 from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank
  7. Data compiled from multiple sources by World Bank (2025) – with minor processing by Our World in Data. “Gross domestic product (GDP) – World Bank – In constant international-$” [dataset]. Data compiled from multiple sources by World Bank, “World Development Indicators” [original data]. Retrieved June 11, 2025 from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-worldbank
  8. International Monetary Fund (via World Bank) (2025) – processed by Our World in Data. “Inflation of consumer prices” [dataset]. International Monetary Fund (via World Bank), “World Development Indicators” [original data]. Retrieved June 11, 2025 from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/inflation-of-consumer-prices
  9. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2025) – with minor processing by Our World in Data. “Military spending” [dataset]. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “SIPRI Military Expenditure Database” [original data]. Retrieved June 11, 2025 from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/military-spending-sipri
  10. V-Dem (2025) – processed by Our World in Data. “Rule of Law index – V-Dem” [dataset]. V-Dem, “Democracy report v15” [original data]. Retrieved June 11, 2025 from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/rule-of-law-index
  11. V-Dem (2025) – processed by Our World in Data. “Free and fair elections index – V-Dem” [dataset]. V-Dem, “Democracy report v15” [original data]. Retrieved June 11, 2025 from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/free-and-fair-elections-index