Mapping Crime in Victoria

Local Government Area Hotspots and Trends Over Time

Isabella Cavaye

2025-06-11

What’s the Story?


In a 2024 statement from CSA Chief Statistician Fiona Dowsley, Dowsley explained that the rate of offences being recorded per 100,000 Victorians has exceeded historical peaks as recorded by Victoria Police in 2024. This story explores recorded crime trends across Victoria from 2015 to 2024. It focuses on:

- Local Government Areas (LGAs) to reveal where crime is concentrated and how it’s changing.
- LGAs with the largest increases and decreases in crime rates.

The goal is to uncover patterns that matter. Identifying where and why crime is changing most to help communities, local councils and policymakers make informed decisions about prevention, resource allocation and targeted support where it’s needed most.

Crime Across Victoria in 2024


- Recorded Offences by LGA (2024) gives an overview of the recorded offences in each LGA coloured by region (Metropolitan vs Regional).

- Metropolitan LGAs dominate the top of the chart, reporting the highest volumes of crime.

- Regional LGAs generally report lower offence counts.

- This comparison helps identify where crime is most concentrated in terms of raw numbers.

LGAs Relative to Population



- Top 5 LGAs by Crime Rate (2024) shows recorded offences per 100,000 people. A population-adjusted measure of crime.

- This is an important assessment as it shows true crime burden relative to population size.

- It highlights the need to look beyond raw totals and focus on rates to identify hotspots fairly.

- Regional LGAs make up most of the top 5, showing that some smaller communities face disproportionately high crime rates when adjusted for population — highlighting a need for targeted interventions outside metro areas.

LGAs with Largest % Increase



- Top 5 LGAs by % Increase in Crime Rate (2015–2024) shows the percentage increase in crime rate per 100,000 people from 2015 to 2024.

- Highlights LGAs with the fastest crime growth and emerging hotspots.

- May indicate areas under pressure needing urgent attention.

- All five are regional LGAs, highlighting shifts in crime dynamics outside metropolitan areas.

Analysis of Buloke

  • Offence Types in Buloke (2015–2024) shows the count of offence types in Buloke from 2015-2024.

  • We’re investigating Buloke because it experienced the largest percentage increase in crime from 2015 to 2024 (71%). Understanding what’s driving this sharp rise can offer valuable insights for early intervention in similar rural areas.

  • According to the Buloke Profile 2024 released by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the population is 6110, the median age is 52, 4 recorded homeless people, 2.8% unemployment rate and the median income of a Buloke resident is $40,287.

  • Buloke’s small population and higher median age of 52 suggest an older, more regional community, but economic strain may be a factor in rising crime. With a lower median income ($40,287), 2.8% unemployment and some recorded homelessness, financial and social disadvantage could be contributing to vulnerability and increased offence rates.

LGAs with Largest % Decrease



- Top 5 LGAs by % Decrease in Crime Rate (2015–2024) shows the areas with the biggest drops in crime rate.

- The list includes both metropolitan and regional areas, suggesting that effective strategies for reducing crime are not limited to metropolitan or regional settings.

- These decreases may be linked to social stability, community programs or changes in policing or population.

- Insights from these LGAs could help shape crime reduction efforts in other communities and offer insights into what is working in those communities.

Analysis of Queenscliffe

  • Offence Types in Queenscliffe (2015–2024) shows the count of offence types in Queenscliffe from 2015-2024.

  • We’re investigating Queenscliffe because it experienced the largest percentage decrease in crime from 2015 to 2024 (-56.6%). Understanding what’s driving this sharp rise can offer valuable insights for early intervention in similar regional areas.

  • According to the Buloke Profile 2025 released by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the population is 3238, the median age is 64, 0 recorded homeless people, 1.1% unemployment rate and the median income of a Queenscliffe resident is $48,746.

  • Low unemployment, no reported homelessness and a relatively high median income in Queenscliffe suggest a stable and well-supported community. These factors likely reduce economic stress and social vulnerability. These are likely two key drivers of helping to maintain low offence levels in the area.

Key Takeaways / Summary

  • Metropolitan LGAs report the highest overall crime volumes, but regional LGAs show the largest percentage increases in crime from 2015 to 2024.

  • Offence rate per 100,000 people was used to account for population size differences across LGAs, allowing for fairer comparisons between large metropolitan areas and smaller regional communities.

  • Buloke had the largest % increase in crime (↑71%) — potentially linked to economic strain, low employment and rising drug offences.

  • Queenscliffe saw the largest % decrease in crime (↓56.6%) — possibly due to strong socioeconomic stability, low unemployment and community support.

  • Understanding what drives change in both directions can help shape targeted policy and support, especially in vulnerable regional communities.

  • Future analysis should explore intervention effectiveness, social services and demographic shifts in high and low crime regions.

References

Crime Statistics Agency Victoria. (n.d.). Home. https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/

Crime Statistics Agency Victoria. (2024). Latest Victorian crime data: Download data. https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-victorian-crime-data/download-data

Crime Statistics Agency Victoria. (2024, December 31). Media release: Latest crime statistics show the theft offence rate is at the lowest in a decade. https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/media-centre/news/media-release-latest-crime-statistics-show-the-theft-offence-rate-is-at-the

National Emergency Management Agency. (n.d.). Data portal – Governance and reporting. https://www.nema.gov.au/about-us/governance-and-reporting/data#/map

Stack Overflow. (2015, June 15). How to use two column layout with reveal.js [Online forum post]. https://stackoverflow.com/questions/30861845/how-to-use-two-column-layout-with-reveal-js

Victorian Local Governance Association. (n.d.). Council map. https://www.viccouncils.asn.au/find-your-council/council-map