In a 2024 statement from CSA Chief Statistician Fiona Dowsley,
Dowsley explained that the rate of offences being recorded per 100,000
Victorians has exceeded historical peaks as recorded by Victoria Police
in 2024. This story explores recorded crime trends across
Victoria from 2015 to 2024. It focuses on:
- Local
Government Areas (LGAs) to reveal where crime is concentrated and how
it’s changing.
- LGAs with the largest increases and decreases in
crime rates.
The goal is to uncover patterns that matter.
Identifying where and why crime is changing most to help communities,
local councils and policymakers make informed decisions about
prevention, resource allocation and targeted support where it’s needed
most.
- Recorded Offences by LGA (2024) gives an overview of
the recorded offences in each LGA coloured by region (Metropolitan vs
Regional).
- Metropolitan LGAs dominate the top of the chart,
reporting the highest volumes of crime.
- Regional LGAs
generally report lower offence counts.
- This comparison helps
identify where crime is most concentrated in terms of raw numbers.
- Top 5 LGAs by Crime Rate (2024) shows recorded
offences per 100,000 people. A population-adjusted measure of crime.
- This is an important assessment as it shows true crime burden
relative to population size.
- It highlights the need to look
beyond raw totals and focus on rates to identify hotspots fairly.
- Regional LGAs make up most of the top 5, showing that some
smaller communities face disproportionately high crime rates when
adjusted for population — highlighting a need for targeted interventions
outside metro areas.
- Top 5 LGAs by % Increase in Crime Rate
(2015–2024) shows the percentage increase in crime rate per 100,000
people from 2015 to 2024.
- Highlights LGAs with the fastest
crime growth and emerging hotspots.
- May indicate areas under
pressure needing urgent attention.
- All five are regional
LGAs, highlighting shifts in crime dynamics outside metropolitan
areas.
- Top 5 LGAs by % Decrease in Crime Rate
(2015–2024) shows the areas with the biggest drops in crime rate.
- The list includes both metropolitan and regional areas,
suggesting that effective strategies for reducing crime are not limited
to metropolitan or regional settings.
- These decreases may be
linked to social stability, community programs or changes in policing or
population.
- Insights from these LGAs could help shape crime
reduction efforts in other communities and offer insights into what is
working in those communities.
Metropolitan LGAs report the highest overall crime volumes, but regional LGAs show the largest percentage increases in crime from 2015 to 2024.
Offence rate per 100,000 people was used to account for population size differences across LGAs, allowing for fairer comparisons between large metropolitan areas and smaller regional communities.
Buloke had the largest % increase in crime (↑71%) — potentially linked to economic strain, low employment and rising drug offences.
Queenscliffe saw the largest % decrease in crime (↓56.6%) — possibly due to strong socioeconomic stability, low unemployment and community support.
Understanding what drives change in both directions can help shape targeted policy and support, especially in vulnerable regional communities.
Future analysis should explore intervention effectiveness, social services and demographic shifts in high and low crime regions.
Crime Statistics Agency Victoria. (n.d.). Home. https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/
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Crime Statistics Agency Victoria. (2024, December 31). Media release: Latest crime statistics show the theft offence rate is at the lowest in a decade. https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/media-centre/news/media-release-latest-crime-statistics-show-the-theft-offence-rate-is-at-the
National Emergency Management Agency. (n.d.). Data portal – Governance and reporting. https://www.nema.gov.au/about-us/governance-and-reporting/data#/map
Stack Overflow. (2015, June 15). How to use two column layout with reveal.js [Online forum post]. https://stackoverflow.com/questions/30861845/how-to-use-two-column-layout-with-reveal-js
Victorian Local Governance Association. (n.d.). Council map. https://www.viccouncils.asn.au/find-your-council/council-map