Title: “Australian Federal Election Trends” Author: “Evangeline Robert” Student Id:“s4067665”

Slide 1: Title

Understanding Voter Shifts in Australian Federal Elections A data-driven story of party performance and voter alignment

Slide 2: Introduction

The Australian federal election is a powerful reflection of national sentiment. This analysis investigates how first-preference votes have changed for key political parties — nationally and at the state level. With the 2025 election on the horizon, such trends offer insight into the evolving political landscape.

Research Question: What can the distribution of first-preference votes tell us about voter loyalty and political competition across Australian states?

Slide 3: Data Source

• Dataset: First preference votes by party by division
  
• Publisher: Australian Electoral Commission (AEC)
  
• Years Covered: Most recent federal election results
  
• URL: https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/
  
• Includes division-level results across all Australian states and territories

Slide 4: Methodology

• Data from AEC CSV was loaded and filtered
• Focused on first-preference votes only (not two-party preferred)
• Top 6 political parties by national vote count were selected: ALP, LP, GRN, LNP, IND, ON
• State-level comparisons focused on ACT and NSW

Slide 5: Load and Summarise Data

library(readr)
library(dplyr)

## 
## Attaching package: 'dplyr'

## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
## 
##     filter, lag

## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
## 
##     intersect, setdiff, setequal, union

library(ggplot2)

# Load data
election_data <- read_csv("~/new02 - Copy/first_prefs_division.csv")

## Rows: 1519 Columns: 7

## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (5): State, DivisionAb, DivisionName, PartyAb, CandidateSurname
## dbl (2): DivisionId, Votes
## 
## ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.

# Define top 6 parties
top_parties <- c("ALP", "LP", "GRN", "LNP", "IND", "ON")

# Filter only top parties
filtered_data <- election_data |>
  filter(PartyAb %in% top_parties)

Interpretation: ALP and LP lead the national vote, with Greens consistently third. Independent (IND) and minor parties still secure meaningful regional support.

slide 6: ALP and LP Dominate National Vote Share

party_summary_top <- filtered_data |>
  group_by(PartyAb) |>
  summarise(Votes = sum(Votes), .groups = "drop")

ggplot(party_summary_top, aes(x = reorder(PartyAb, -Votes), y = Votes, fill = PartyAb)) +
  geom_col(show.legend = FALSE) +
  geom_text(aes(label = scales::comma(Votes)), vjust = -0.5, size = 4) +
  labs(title = "Top 6 Political Parties by Total Votes", x = "Party", y = "Total Votes") +
  theme_minimal()

Interpretation: ALP and LP lead the national vote, with Greens consistently third. Independent (IND) and minor parties still secure meaningful regional support.

##Slide 6A: ACT Favors ALP and Greens

act_votes <- filtered_data |>
  filter(State == "ACT") |>
  group_by(PartyAb) |>
  summarise(Votes = sum(Votes), .groups = "drop")

ggplot(act_votes, aes(x = reorder(PartyAb, -Votes), y = Votes, fill = PartyAb)) +
  geom_col(show.legend = FALSE) +
  geom_text(aes(label = scales::comma(Votes)), vjust = -0.5, size = 4) +
  labs(title = "Vote Distribution in ACT", x = "Party", y = "Votes") +
  theme_minimal()

Interpretation: ALP dominates ACT, with strong support from Greens. LP and others are significantly lower, reflecting the ACT’s progressive political character.

Slide 7: NSW Reveals Competitive Dynamics

nsw_votes <- filtered_data |>
  filter(State == "NSW") |>
  group_by(PartyAb) |>
  summarise(Votes = sum(Votes), .groups = "drop")

ggplot(nsw_votes, aes(x = reorder(PartyAb, -Votes), y = Votes, fill = PartyAb)) +
  geom_col(show.legend = FALSE) +
  geom_text(aes(label = scales::comma(Votes)), vjust = -0.5, size = 4) +
  labs(title = "Vote Distribution in NSW", x = "Party", y = "Votes") +
  theme_minimal()

Interpretation: NSW shows a tighter contest between ALP and LP, with LNP and IND playing key regional roles. Greens have a more moderate share compared to ACT.

Slide 8: Observations Across Divisions

• ALP and LP remain national anchors, but competition varies state-wise
• IND and ON gain strength in regional and outer metro areas
• Voter fragmentation is rising, especially in marginal divisions

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Slide 9: Conclusion

This analysis shows that while ALP and LP retain strong national presence, voter alignment shifts considerably at the state level. ACT leans progressive, while NSW remains a battleground. The growing relevance of independents and minor parties hints at a more fragmented electoral future.

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Slide 10: References

Australian Electoral Commission. (2024). First preference votes by party by division. Retrieved from https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/