Australia Votes Early: Pre-Poll Turnout in the 2025 Federal Election

Alex Xavier (S4070060)

Slide 1: Australia Voted Early — But What Does the Data Say?

Uncovering Patterns in the 2025 Federal Election Pre-Poll Turnout

  • Pre-poll voting has become the dominant method of participation in Australian elections.
  • This presentation explores how early voting unfolded across time, geography, and polling centres during the 2025 federal election.
  • Data sourced from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).

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Slide 2: Why Explore Pre-Poll Voting?

  • Early voting has reshaped election day logistics and voter behaviour.
  • Understanding when, where, and how intensely people vote early can inform:
    • Electoral planning
    • Voter engagement strategies
    • Resource allocation
  • This analysis focuses on identifying key turnout spikes, regional engagement patterns, and high-volume voting centres.

Slide 3: National Voting Trend

The graph shows a steady increase in pre-poll votes from April 22 to May 2, peaking sharply just before the election. A dramatic drop on May 3 likely reflects reduced polling activity on election day itself.

Slide 4: Who Voted the Most? (By State)

New South Wales (NSW) recorded the highest number of pre-poll votes, followed by Victoria and Queensland. The smaller territories—ACT, TAS, and NT—had significantly lower pre-poll participation.

Slide 5: Daily Trend by State

All states and territories show a similar pattern: steady growth in pre-poll votes leading up to a sharp peak on May 2, followed by a dramatic drop on May 3. NSW and VIC stand out with consistently higher daily volumes.

Slide 6: Busiest Pre-Poll Centres (Lollipop Chart)

Coorparoo Griffith PPVC recorded the highest pre-poll turnout, with several other centres across Queensland, Victoria, and the ACT also exceeding 20,000 votes, highlighting key high-traffic voting hubs.

Slide 7: Most Engaged Divisions

The Fisher division recorded the highest pre-poll turnout, followed closely by Hinkler and Gilmore. Most of the top 10 divisions are located in Queensland and New South Wales, indicating strong early voting engagement in these areas.

Slide 8: Interesting Outliers

The heatmap shows a clear surge in pre-poll voting across all states leading up to May 2, with New South Wales and Victoria consistently recording the highest daily volumes. The darkest cell on May 2 in NSW marks the peak of national early voting intensity.

Slide 9: What Did We Learn?

  • Pre-poll voting surged steadily from April 22, peaking sharply on May 2, just before the election.
  • NSW, VIC, and QLD led the nation in early voter turnout, while smaller territories like ACT, TAS, and NT saw lower participation.
  • A consistent state-wide pattern emerged: growing turnout throughout the week, followed by a steep drop on May 3.
  • Coorparoo Griffith PPVC handled the most votes of any centre, with several others in QLD, VIC, and ACT also surpassing 20,000.
  • The Fisher, Hinkler, and Gilmore divisions topped the pre-poll charts, showing particularly strong engagement in QLD and NSW.
  • A heatmap of daily votes revealed May 2 as the clear national peak, with NSW and VIC consistently contributing the darkest (highest turnout) cells across the pre-poll period.

Slide 10: References

•   Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). Pre-poll votes issued – Federal Election 2025 [CSV file]. https://www.aec.gov.au/election/fe25/files/downloads/pre-poll/pre-pollvotesissued_final_FE25.csv