Swing Analysis: First-Preference Vote Changes (2019 - 2022)
Shishir Prasad Srirangapatna Krishnaprasad (S4041165)
2025-06-11
Slide 3: ALP Votes 2019 vs 2022
- What it shows: Almost every dot sits above the 45° dashed
line, meaning in nearly all divisions the ALP garnered more
first-preference votes in 2022 than in 2019. A few points below the line
flag divisions where support dipped.
- Why it matters: The widespread uplift signals national
momentum, while the few declines pinpoint seats where ALP outreach may
need strengthening before 2025.
Slide 4: Top 10 Electorates by ALP Swing
- What it shows: Tangney leads with an 89.2 pp swing, followed
by Moore (57.3 pp), Durack (55.9 pp), Hasluck (51.8 pp) and New England
(45.5 pp), all far above the rest.
- Why it matters: These battlegrounds reveal where local
factors or targeted campaigning made the biggest impact—and where both
major parties will likely focus resources next time.
Slide 5: State-Level Swing Summary
- What it shows: WA (+40 pp) and ACT (+16 pp) far outperformed
the national average; QLD (+7 pp) and SA (+3 pp) saw modest gains; TAS
(–18 pp), VIC (–12 pp) and NT (–14 pp) recorded declines; NSW was
roughly flat.
- Why it matters: Stark regional differences highlight how
state-level dynamics and campaign strategies drove very different
outcomes across Australia.
Slide 6: Distribution of ALP Swing Across Divisions
- What it shows: The histogram peaks around small positive
swings (0–10 pp) for most divisions, but a long right tail extends
beyond +50 pp and a few outliers dip below –50 pp. - Why it
matters: While most divisions saw moderate gains, extreme outliers
underscore where local issues or candidate profiles caused dramatic
shifts—key to understanding which seats were truly volatile.