Final Project– Forecasting and Simulations
Filip Bieszke, Kamil Ciosek, Michał Książek
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1. Introduction
The aim of this project is to develop and verify an econometric model for forecasting the number of active national economy entities (businesses) in Polish voivodeships using panel data from 2010 to 2023. The analysis focuses on examining the impact of selected economic factors on regional entrepreneurship development and constructing a short-term forecast for the business sector’s condition.
The project uses official statistical data published by Statistics Poland (Główny Urząd Statystyczny - GUS). The modeling process follows a structured approach: selecting the explained variable, identifying explanatory factors, estimating a cause-effect model, verifying its correctness, and generating conditional forecasts based on projected trends in the explanatory variables.
Explained (dependent) variable
Number of active national economy entities (PODM_2823)
Indicates the total number of registered and operating businesses in a given year, excluding individuals running individual agricultural holdings.
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Explanatory (independent) variables
Average gross monthly salary (WYNA_2497)
Indicates the average gross earnings of employees in the enterprise sector in a given year.Number of registered unemployed persons (RYNE_1364)
Includes individuals who are out of work, ready to take up employment, and registered with district labor offices.Consumer price index (CENY_2955)
Reflects the inflation rate, i.e., the change in the price level of consumer goods and services compared to the previous year.Number of newly registered national economy entities (NOWE_XXXX)
Shows how many new businesses were registered in the REGON system in a given year, broken down by ownership sector.Number of entities removed from the REGON register (PODM_3495)
Provides information on the number of businesses removed from the REGON register in a given year, for example, due to closure.Investment outlays and fixed assets in enterprises (INWE_XXXX)
Specify the total expenditures of enterprises on investments, modernization, and the value of their fixed assets.