CLL Risk Margin

Author

Alan Shulman

CLL Risk Margin Summary

by Diagnosis

Data is for CLL contracts with effective dates between 2015 and 2022, as of 4/30/2025

Comparing the budgeted risk margin to the retrospective required risk margin, chronic SCI and ABI were generally close to where they needed to be. Acute ABI and SCI had a negative requirement as they were overbudgeted. In additon multiple trauma was close to budget and no risk margin was required, though 4% was budgeted. Other categories were too small to draw conclusions

Revenue Recognition Diagnosis Count Claim Budget OverUnder Budget RM Budgeted Required
MC-Acute ABI 26 17,307,651 435,025 609,071 4% -3%
MC-Acute Amputation 2 726,919 -49,741 45,241 6% 7%
MC-Acute Multiple Trauma 27 14,990,332 -534,822 515,539 3% 4%
MC-Acute Other 4 1,208,286 164,686 62,336 5% -14%
MC-Acute SCI 16 11,666,231 444,151 550,252 5% -4%
MC-Chronic ABI 18 5,689,193 -126,151.8 117,378 2% 2%
MC-Chronic Amputation 2 931,827 2,953.8 15,402 2% 0%
MC-Chronic Burn Injury 2 639,402 282,165.8 11,334 2% -44%
MC-Chronic Multiple Trauma 9 3,894,247 1,344,508.8 209,196 5% -35%
MC-Chronic Other 2 471,716 -167,461.6 38,646 8% 36%
MC-Chronic SCI 20 7,509,093 -270,080.3 237,216 3% 4%

by Revenue Recognition

Overall, both acute and chronic were overbudgeted as the required margin was negative. Though with only 133 contracts in total to evaluate, its not clear that a risk margin would not be theoretically required.

Revenue Recognition Count Claim Budget OverUnder Budget RM Budgeted Required
MC-Acute 75 45,899,420 459,299 1,782,439 4% -1%
MC-Chronic 53 19,135,477 1,065,935 629,172 3% -6%

by Effective Year

Effective Year Count Claim Budget OverUnder Budget RM Budgeted Required
2015 22 5,414,762 396,431 199,322 4% -7%
2016 23 7,633,480 863,669 278,261 4% -11%
2017 10 4,001,185 -51,153 223,632 6% 1%
2018 13 3,227,831 -519,937 111,354 3% 16%
2019 15 8,328,152 -23,741 335,371 4% 0%
2020 13 11,442,349 -636,433 502,086 4% 6%
2021 22 17,075,166 -395,724 448,732 3% 2%
2022 10 7,911,972 1,892,122 312,853 4% -24%
Revenue Recognition Effective Year Count Claim Budget OverUnder Budget RM Budgeted Required
MC-Acute 2015 9 2,131,277 300,663 96,136 5% -14%
MC-Acute 2016 12 4,052,154 861,998 188,227 5% -21%
MC-Acute 2017 5 2,783,955 16,535 188,051 7% -1%
MC-Acute 2018 6 1,969,787 -542,315 98,251 5% 28%
MC-Acute 2019 11 7,219,985 294,400 271,927 4% -4%
MC-Acute 2020 11 10,513,964 -391,757 445,788 4% 4%
MC-Acute 2021 15 13,000,095 -260,811 329,899 3% 2%
MC-Acute 2022 6 4,228,202 180,586 164,160 4% -4%
MC-Chronic 2015 13 3,283,486 95,768.2 103,186 3% -3%
MC-Chronic 2016 11 3,581,326 1,670.6 90,034 3% 0%
MC-Chronic 2017 5 1,217,230 -67,688.0 35,581 3% 6%
MC-Chronic 2018 7 1,258,044 22,377.8 13,103 1% -2%
MC-Chronic 2019 4 1,108,167 -318,141.0 63,444 6% 29%
MC-Chronic 2020 2 928,385 -244,675.9 56,298 6% 26%
MC-Chronic 2021 7 4,075,071 -134,912.3 118,833 3% 3%
MC-Chronic 2022 4 3,683,769 1,711,535.2 148,693 4% -46%