Visayas as the Potential Game Changer

Data stories for increased rice productivity

Current State of Visayas Rice Production

  • Steady increase in national production over the years.
  • Visayas production remains constant.
  • Visayas share has been declining since 2020.
  • In 2024, it reached a record low of 15.95%. Lowest since 1990.

Yield Gap: Visayas vs National Average

  • Average yield in Visayas is about 3.27 mt/ha in 2024.
  • Yield gap between Philippines and Visayas continues to increase since 2010
  • Highest yield gap in 2023, at about 0.93 mt/ha difference between Visayas and National average yield.
  • While the national rice yield continues to show a steady upward trend, Visayas yield remains relatively stagnant.
  • If this pattern persists, the yield gap between Visayas and the national average is expected to widen further in the coming years.

2025-2030 Production Projection

  • Visayas production is projected to remain at around 3.2 million metric tons.
  • Consequently, its share of total production will likely stay between 15% and 16%.

2025-2030 Yield Projections

  • Average yield in Visayas will stay below 3.5 mt/ha until 2030 while the national is expected to gradually increase up to 4.4 mt/ha.
  • Yield gap between Philippines and Visayas will continue to increase and cross 1 mt/ha as early as 2026.

Projected rice self sufficiency levels

  • Growing population drives higher rice demand
  • But supply in Visayas projected to remain almost constant.
  • achieving 100% rice self-sufficiency will become increasingly challenging for the region.

Target production and Rice Self Sufficiency

Target direction. . .

  • 100 % Rice Self Sufficiency by 2030
  • Requiring at least 28.67 million MT total palay production in the country.
  • 4.55 million MT (about 16 % of total) to be produced from Visayas.

Target Vs Projected 2030

  • Target production in Visayas is 1.4 million MT higher than projected.
  • Target Rice Self Sufficiency in Visayas is 37.84 % higher than projected.

Required yield performance for rice self sufficiency

To achieve rice self-sufficiency by 2030,

  • the Visayas region must gradually boost productivity and raise its average yield to at least 4.55 MT/ha.
  • This target represents a 139% increase compared to the historical average yield as of 2024 and current projections.

Zooming in on provincial productivity

  • Bohol, Iloilo, Leyte, and Negros Occidental together account for at least 60% of total rice production in the Visayas.

  • Iloilo has consistently led the region in total production, with an estimated 831 thousand metric tons of palay in 2024.

Zooming in on provincial productivity

  • Leyte has been the most consistently high-yielding province in the Visayas, averaging at least 4 metric tons per hectare over the past 20 years.

Potential interventions based on DAC RBFHS Yield Model1

Seed Class DS WS
kg/ha kg/ha
SEED CLASS
High Quality Inbred Seed Use vs Low Quality 20 20
Hybrid seed use vs Low Quality inbred use 340 320
FERTILIZER
Urea 80 80
Complete 80 70

(ANNEX) Provincial details

Rice Self Sufficiency in BOHOL

Target Production in BOHOL

Required Yield performance in BOHOL

Rice Self Sufficiency in ILOILO

Target Production in ILOILO

Required Yield performance in ILOILO

Rice Self Sufficiency in LEYTE

Target Production in LEYTE

Required Yield performance in LEYTE

Rice Self Sufficiency in NEGROS OCCIDENTAL

Target Production in NEGROS OCCIDENTAL

Required Yield performance in NEGROS OCCIDENTAL

PhilRice Data Analytics Center