Introduction

Project Overview

This project explores the role and influence of penalty kicks in professional soccer. Drawing on data from several top-tier and second-tier leagues around the world, the analysis aims to quantify how penalty kicks affect match outcomes, league standings, and individual scoring achievements.

Motivation

The idea for this project originated from an offhand remark during a soccer match: “Maybe penalty kicks should be worth half as much.” That casual comment lingered in my mind and sparked a deeper curiosity about the true value and impact of penalty kicks in the modern game. What began as a thought experiment has grown into a full-fledged data analysis project.

Key Questions

This analysis seeks to answer several core questions:

  • What is the relationship between penalty kicks (both awarded and converted) and game results, league rankings, and top scorer races?
  • How does this relationship vary across different leagues and regions?
  • How have the patterns and influence of penalty kicks evolved over time?
  • Can penalty kick statistics serve as predictors for broader outcomes, such as a team’s season success or an individual player’s awards?

Project Deliverables

The results of this project will be presented in three distinct formats:

  • Code & Analysis: Annotated code used in the data collection and analysis process, along with commentary explaining the methods and findings.
  • Discussion: A narrative interpretation of the results, aimed at a general audience. This document will highlight key takeaways while minimizing technical jargon.
  • Reports: Visually appealing presentations of the findings, designed for hypothetical stakeholders. These reports will focus on clarity and accessibility while retaining essential technical context when needed.

Planning & Approach

Audience

This project is intended to be accessible to anyone with a basic understanding of soccer. If you know that a penalty kick is a one-on-one shot against the goalkeeper from a designated spot, you have all the background needed. More technical or sport-specific concepts will be explained as necessary.

Data Sources

I plan to collect data from regular-season matches in the following leagues:

  • Top-tier leagues:
    • Premier League (England)
    • Ligue 1 (France)
    • Bundesliga (Germany)
    • Serie A (Italy)
    • La Liga (Spain)
    • Major League Soccer (USA)
    • Liga MX (Mexico)
  • Second-tier leagues:
    • EFL Championship (England)
    • Ligue 2 (France)
    • Bundesliga (Germany)
    • Serie B (Italy)
    • Segunda División (Spain)

Anticipated Challenges

The primary challenge will be acquiring comprehensive and consistent data. While top-division leagues are well-documented, lower-tier leagues may have less publicly available or granular data—particularly at the match level. This could limit the depth of analysis for certain leagues or time periods.

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