The Effect Of The Three Point Shot On NBA Basketball In Recent Years:

If you have followed basketball media in the last handful of years, or any sports media for that matter, you have likely come across the argument that “analytics” are ruining the sport. Proponents of this argument say that the overuse of math in formulating game strategies has changed the game for the worse, especially when it comes to the use of the three point shot in the NBA. But it is important to ask whether what these people say is true, or whether they are overreacting for engagement. Has scoring in the NBA changed in recent years? Has three point shooting changed? If so, has this change affected winning, awards, or basketball beyond the NBA?

How Has Offensive Efficiency Changed In The NBA Recently?

The following visualization provides information about the change in two different measures of offensive efficiency used in the NBA from 2006 to 2024. The first measure of offensive efficiency is Offensive Rating, which measures the points a team scores per one-hundred possessions. The second measure of offensive efficiency provided in the visualization is Effective Field Goal Percentage, which is the percentage of attempted shots that are successful, weighted by the value of the shot type.

As is made clear by the line graph, from the 2006 season to the 2024 season there seems to have been a fairly significant change in the offensive efficiency of NBA teams. Both league average Offensive Rating and league average Effective Field Goal Percentage have increased fairly consistently over the given period of time. Each of the league average metrics reached their peak value in the most recent season with data collected. When looking at the offensive efficiency metrics for specific teams, there is more season to season variance as would be expected. However, even with that variance, there seems to be a clear trend for all of the teams of offensive efficiency increasing. This visualization makes it obvious that offenses across the NBA have become more effective at scoring points over the course of recent seasons.

How Have NBA Shot Locations Changed Over Time?

The following visualization provides information about the change in the location of all shots over the course of an NBA season. The basket is located at the middle of the x-axis (baseline) and about five feet above the baseline along the sideline. The line that dictates whether or not a shot is a three-pointer is made up of two parallel lines and an arc. The parallel lines are about twenty-three feet away in either direction from the basket along the baseline and extend about eighteen feet along the sideline. These two parallel lines are connected by the arc which reaches its farthest point from the basket directly above the basket at about 30 feet.

This heat map shows us that there has been a noticeable change in the location of shots that NBA players take over the course of a season. In earlier seasons, there is a fairly even distribution of shots across different locations on the court. There is a clear divide of three point shots and two point shots along the three point line. As the visualization progresses through the seasons, the distribution of shots becomes less evenly distributed. There becomes a higher concentration of shots taken beyond the three point line, and shots taken within the three point line become more tightly packed around the basket. This seems to show that NBA players are no longer taking nearly as many “long-twos”. If they choose to take a shot at a fairly significant distance from the basket, they attempt a shot that has the chance of getting them three points.

Are Players Any Better At Shooting Threes Now?

The following visualization provides information about the percentage of successful three point shot attempts among different positions over time.

As opposed to the other visualizations shown thus far, this bar graph does not seem to indicate significant change within the NBA over the seasons from 2006 to 2024. For the percentage of successful three point shot attempts there is certainly some variation among positions and variation from year to year. The most noticeable variation happens for the center position, which is typically played by the tallest players. This variation makes sense, as generally the center’s role involves staying closer to the basket meaning they typically would be expected to take fewer three point shots. However, even when the center position is included, there appears to be a fairly stable three point percentage over all of the seasons. In general, the three point percentage seems to hover somewhere between thirty-three and thirty-six percent. This would suggest that even though there has been a change in the shots NBA players are taking, NBA players as a whole are not significantly more skilled at making a high percentage of three point shots than they were in earlier seasons.

If Player’s Three Point Shooting Hasn’t Significantly Improved, Where Are The Efficiency Gains From?

The following visualization provides information about the relative rates of attempted three point shots and two point shots in a given season from 2006 to 2024.

By viewing the changes in the pie charts between each of the seasons, it becomes clear that there has been a very large change in the total number of three point shots attempted relative to the total number of two point shots attempted in a given season. Compared to 2006, the 2024 season saw almost two times the percentage of total shots attempted become three point shots. The relative number of three point attempts seemed to remain fairly steady for a handful of years, but then began to increase fairly rapidly around the 2012 season. This all happened while the overall number of shots remained mostly the same. Given what the last visualization showed, that players haven’t gotten significantly better at successfully making three point shots, this shows that a large portion of the gains in offensive efficiency in the NBA in recent years can likely be attributed to the increase in three point attempt volume.

Which Types Of Players Are Shooting More Three-Pointers?

The following visualization provides information about the total amount of three point attempts each position has had in a season from 2006 to 2024.

Traditionally, the positions expected to attempt the most three-pointers would be the Point Guards, Shooting Guards, and Small Forwards. This expectation has remained true throughout the years as these three positions attempted the most three point shots in the 2006 season and still occupied the three top spots in the 2024 season. However, the most significant changes amongst the positions relative to their total three point attempts in 2006 appear to be the non-traditional three point shooting positions of Power Forward and Center. Those two positions, which are traditionally thought to be more focused on defense, rebounding, and scoring close to the basket, saw huge increases in the total number of threes they attempted. In fact, for a handful of years the Power Forward position even attempted more three point shots than the Small Forward position. The Center position went from attempting essentially zero three point shots in 2006 to taking over five thousand in 2024. While there was an increase in the total number of attempts for each position, this graph seems to show that there has been a shift in expectations so that now every position is expected to attempt three point shots.

Is Making More Three Point Shots Per Game Associated With Team Success?

The following visualization provides information about the team’s winning percentage and championship status when compared to the team’s three point shooting ability for the 2006 season through the 2024 season.

When looking at the scatter plots it appears as though there may be a relationship between total made threes per game and winning percentage based on the regression line. It seems that in general, there is some connection between making more three point shots per game and having a higher winning percentage, though it doesn’t appear to be a particularly strong relationship. This does, of course, vary by season. As for whether or not there is a connection between team three point shooting success and winning the NBA championship, there is even weaker evidence for a connection. Certain years, like 2024, would make it seem like three point success is vital to winning the championship as the champion had a significant advantage in three point makes per game. However, in other years the eventual champion was just about average or even below average in three point makes per game. This suggests that even with the evidence of the effect of three-pointers on the NBA, there are still many other factors that affect winning and championships.

Is There A Difference In Three Point Shooting Between All-Stars And Non-All-Stars?

The following visualization provides information about the difference in three point statistics for players who were named All-Stars and players who were not named All-Stars between 2006 and 2024. It only includes players who played over thirty minutes a game in the season to make a more even comparison.

Based on the graphs, the relationship between three point statistics and individual players achieving All-Star status is mixed. For all of the positions, it seems that All-Star players do have some tendency to make more three point shots per game, but most of this can be attributed to them attempting more three point shots per game. This is shown by comparing the three point shooting percentage between All-Stars and non All-Stars and seeing that they are generally very similar. This would seem to suggest that, similar to team success, three point shooting does have some effect on All-Star status, but that there are many more factors that go into determining which basketball players are deserving of All-Star honors.

How Similar Is Three Point Shooting At The Collegiate Basketball Level?

The following visualization provides information about the difference between college basketball teams and NBA teams three point tendencies during the 2024 season. The college basketball statistics were adjusted to account for the difference in game length.

The violin plot comparing the NBA’s three point shooting tendencies to college basketball’s three point shooting tendencies show some clear differences. The most obvious one is that NBA teams tend to make more three point shots per game than college basketball teams do. Most teams in college basketball don’t even make as many three point shots per game as the NBA teams who make the least. Another difference in the three point tendencies between these two levels of basketball is the spread in the data. NBA teams have a much tighter spread, meaning that they are generally more similar to each other, while college basketball teams have a much wider range of three point tendencies. This shows that there is a fairly big difference in how college basketball teams treat three point shooting when compared to the NBA.

Conclusion

Based on the visualizations that have been presented, it is clear that the NBA has changed in recent years and that three point shots likely have a lot to do with that change. Offensive efficiency has increased, and players are taking less “long twos”. While players generally aren’t better at successfully making three point shots, they are taking a much larger amount of them relative to two point shots. The roles of players seems to have shifted somewhat too, with some of the traditionally non-shooting positions like Power Forwards and Centers now taking significant amounts of three-pointers. However, even with all of these effects from three point shots, they have not completely taken over the game of basketball. Team and individual success still requires a lot of other things to go right, and other levels of basketball offer a different style. While basketball is different in some ways, it is still an incredibly diverse sport.