Physiotherapist Supply Predictive Analytics
Projecting provider supply across Canadian jurisdictions for 2024-2025
Total Providers (2023)
29,153
Projected Growth (2024)
4.2%
Fastest Growing Region
BC
Supply-Demand Ratio
0.92
Projected Provider Growth (2024-2025)
Jurisdiction Comparison
Projected Supply Data
| Year | Jurisdiction | Type | Providers | Inflow | Outflow | Renewal | Growth Rate |
|---|
Historical Trends (2014-2023)
Inflow vs Outflow Trends
Renewal Rate Analysis
Regional Distribution
Regional Growth Rates
Regional Stability Index
Analytic Report: Physiotherapist Supply Projections 2024-2025
Executive Summary
Based on historical data from 2014-2023, the physiotherapist workforce in Canada is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.2% over the next two years, reaching approximately 31,600 providers by 2025. This growth is driven primarily by Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, which together account for nearly 75% of the national supply.
Key Findings
- British Columbia shows the highest projected growth rate at 5.1% annually, driven by strong inflow rates and low outflow.
- The Atlantic provinces demonstrate stable but slower growth, averaging 2.8% annually, with Newfoundland and Labrador showing the most consistent renewal rates.
- Quebec's supply is projected to benefit from high renewal rates (92%) but may face challenges from increasing outflow trends observed in recent years.
- The Prairies (AB, SK, MB) show moderate growth projections averaging 3.7%, with Alberta leading in absolute numbers but Manitoba showing the most stable workforce.
Methodology
Projections were calculated using a weighted moving average model that considers:
- • Historical growth rates (2014-2023)
- • Inflow/outflow ratios with seasonal adjustments
- • Renewal rate trends and retention factors
- • Regional demographic and economic indicators
Note: Projections assume no major policy changes or economic disruptions. The COVID-19 impact has been normalized in the model.
Detailed Projections by Jurisdiction
| Jurisdiction | 2023 Supply | 2024 Projection | 2025 Projection | Growth Rate | Stability Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 330 | 343 | 356 | 3.9% | High |
| Prince Edward Island | 133 | 140 | 147 | 5.2% | Medium |
| Nova Scotia | 904 | 932 | 960 | 3.1% | High |
| New Brunswick | 618 | 639 | 661 | 3.4% | Medium |
| Quebec | 5,813 | 6,040 | 6,275 | 3.9% | Medium |
| Ontario | 11,105 | 11,570 | 12,050 | 4.2% | High |
| Manitoba | 982 | 1,015 | 1,050 | 3.4% | High |
| Saskatchewan | 813 | 840 | 868 | 3.3% | Medium |
| Alberta | 3,536 | 3,680 | 3,830 | 4.1% | Medium |
| British Columbia | 4,865 | 5,110 | 5,370 | 5.1% | High |
| Yukon | 54 | 56 | 58 | 3.6% | Low |
Recommendations
Workforce Planning
- • Prioritize retention strategies in Quebec and Alberta where outflow rates are increasing
- • Expand training capacity in British Columbia to meet growing demand
- • Develop targeted recruitment strategies for Atlantic provinces to address slower growth
Policy Considerations
- • Review licensure reciprocity agreements to facilitate inter-provincial mobility
- • Implement monitoring systems for Yukon and PEI due to small sample sizes
- • Develop regional workforce collaboratives to address disparities
Limitations
This analysis has several limitations that should be considered when interpreting the results:
- • Projections assume historical trends will continue without major disruptions
- • Small jurisdictions (Yukon, PEI) have limited data which may affect reliability
- • The model doesn't account for potential changes in training capacity or immigration policies
- • COVID-19 impacts have been normalized but may have longer-term effects not yet evident