Priced Out of Paradise

Florida continues to attract a significant influx of new residents, drawn by its reputation for a relatively low cost of living and job opportunities. However, despite this appeal, the state faces a paradoxical housing challenge. According to the United States Census Bureau, Florida had the highest rent burden in the nation at 34.5% in 2023. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) defines a household as rent-burdened when it spends 30% or more of its income on rent. Additionally, rent is increasing across the state and income is not keeping up. The data presented in this report focuses on the Southwest region of Florida, where many cities are seeing a population boom as residents move to the area seeking affordability and opportunity. These data hope to offer insight into trends and affordability pressures that underscores this statewide contradiction.

Florida Counties: Income and Rent Over Time

Glades County has the second largest disparity between rent growth and income growth in the state

Using the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 5-year data from 2014-2018 and 2019-2023, we can calculate the change in rent and income and make insights into affordability trends in each county. This chart compares the percent change in rent prices to the percent change in income from the 2018 survey results to the 2023 survey results. Because this analysis requires a change of price over time, 2018 income and rent were adjusted for inflation in order to accurately compare them to 2023 prices. The results of this analysis found that 31 of 67 counties experienced rent growth outpacing income growth in those years.

Southwest Florida

Rent Growth Outpacing Income Growth

Six counties in Southwest Florida were chosen for analysis. Using the Fort Myers-Naples Designated Market Area defined by Neilsen Media Research, the counties selected were Lee, Collier, Charlotte, Glades, DeSoto, and Hendry. The chart uses the percentage point difference in the percent change in rent and the percent change in income for analysis. A positive difference indicates rent growth is faster than income growth, while a negative difference indicates rent growth is slower than income growth. Since 2018, three counties in Southwest Florida saw rent increasing faster than income. However, three neighboring counties saw income increasing faster than rent.

Rent Burden

While the previous chart illustrates three counties with income growing faster than rent, each county in Southwest Florida is considered rent burdened. Additionally, all counties except DeSoto in this area have a higher rent burden than the national average, which was 31% in 2023 according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Rising Rent and High Rent Burden

Using a correlation analysis between the growth disparity highlighted in Chart 2 and the rent burden highlighted in Chart 3, there is a strong, positive, linear relationship between the growth disparity and the rent burden in these six counties. That means the more rent growth outpaces income growth, it is likely the rent burden will be higher.

Conclusion

Southwest Florida is considered rent burdened, with each county’s rent burden sitting above 30%. From 2018 to 2023, some counties have seen rent grow faster than income, but the variability in this comparison does not leave us with a definitive conclusion about the trend of affordability in the area. As Florida sits at the top of the nation for highest rent burden, there remains more to be discovered about why the rent burden is high and what factors are influencing this trend.

Future Stories

  1. Why is rent in Glades, Lee and Collier county increasing more than in DeSoto, Charlotte, and Hendry?
  2. What age group is most rent-burdened in Southwest Florida?