Assignment 7

Introduction

I wanted to see how the weather has changed across the United States overtime. Not only that but does the data I find support Climate Change theories. It has been a major discussion in recent times that the Earth is getting warmer with more natural disasters so I wanted to look more into this. I found a text table from Cincinnati.com The Enquirer that gives the historical weather data on the continental United States. It has things such as average rainfall, temperate, and heating and cooling days on a monthly basis. I will try to look at how things such as temperature and precipitation has changed overtime using things such as line and bar graphs.

Analysis

This graph shows the average temperature over the last century. There are a lot of ups and downs in the temperature as seen. After the 1970’s there seems to be an overall upward trend up in temperature though by a good bit. Looking at the blue line which is the line of best fit the temperature has gone up by a little less than 2 degrees in this time frame.

This graph is the same as the one prior but instead shows precipitation on average in inches. As the earth warms up many have claimed this speeds up the evaporation process and therefore it rains more. Looking at the temperature graph and now this graph it in fact has rained more overtime. Looking at the line of best fit rain has increased by about a quarter of an inch over the last century.

This graph shows the average number of heating degree days (red line) and average number of cooling degree days (blue line) per year overtime. Heating and cooling days are used to measure energy use especially with things like energy required to heat or cool a home. To calculate heating days you take the average temperature for that day, for example 45, and subtract it from 65 to give you 20 heating degree days. For cooling degree days is the opposite. You take the average temperature for the day and then minus 65 to it. If the average temperture was 75 you then do 75-65= 10 Cooling degree days. Overall if the average temperature is above 65 you will have cooling degree days and if its the opposite you will have heating degree days. Turning to the graph, the number of heating degree days has decreased while the number of cooling degree days has increased in this time period. This means there has been more hot days in the summer and less cold days in the winter which is what the temperature graph showed as well.

In this graph we look at the average max temperatures of these decades during the summer months of June, July and August. We can see that the temperatures have gone up by about a degree and a half over the last 45 years or so. It has increased every decade as well apart from the 1990’s.

This graph shows the same as the one previous except it is now the average minimum temperature for the months of December, January, and February. The minimum temperature has also rose over the last 45 years by about 2 degrees.

Conclusion

As you can see based on the graphs, the Continental United States has gotten warmer over the last 100 years. Because of the warmer temperatures and faster evaporation it has in turn, rained more as well. These levels have been quite linear though as there is not a big jump in temperature or rain over the years. There are obviously quite some variability year after year but a consistent increase overall in rain and temperature. This data would support many recent claims of global warming at least here in the United States.

--- title: "Assignment 7" editor: visual toc: true # Generates an automatic table of contents. format: # Options related to formatting. html: # Options related to HTML output. code-tools: TRUE # Allow the code tools option showing in the output. embed-resources: TRUE # Embeds all components into a single HTML file. execute: # Options related to the execution of code chunks. warning: FALSE # FALSE: Code chunk sarnings are hidden by default. message: FALSE # FALSE: Code chunk messages are hidden by default. echo: FALSE --- ## Introduction I wanted to see how the weather has changed across the United States overtime. Not only that but does the data I find support Climate Change theories. It has been a major discussion in recent times that the Earth is getting warmer with more natural disasters so I wanted to look more into this. I found a text table from Cincinnati.com The Enquirer that gives the historical weather data on the continental United States. It has things such as average rainfall, temperate, and heating and cooling days on a monthly basis. I will try to look at how things such as temperature and precipitation has changed overtime using things such as line and bar graphs. ```{r} ## load packages into R library(tidyverse) # The tidyverse collection of packages library(httr) # Useful for web authentication library(rvest) # Useful tools for working with HTML and XML library(polite) # Promoting responsible web scraping library(lubridate) # Working with dates library(magrittr) # Piping output easily with loops ``` ```{r, results='hide'} ## load the data from web scraping file read_csv("https://myxavier-my.sharepoint.com/:x:/g/personal/pennellim_xavier_edu/EX3o3O_P-2VJrlZqAPyk9XoBld7-MrI5XqAuXaL7ltWODg?download=1") data <- read_csv("https://myxavier-my.sharepoint.com/:x:/g/personal/pennellim_xavier_edu/EX3o3O_P-2VJrlZqAPyk9XoBld7-MrI5XqAuXaL7ltWODg?download=1") ``` ## Analysis ```{r} data %>% group_by(year)%>% summarize(avg_temp = mean(Avg..Temp., na.rm = TRUE))%>% filter(year > 1925, year < 2025) %>% ggplot(aes(x = year, y = avg_temp)) + geom_line(color = "gray", size = 1)+ geom_point(color = "black")+ geom_smooth(method = "lm")+ labs(title = "Average Temperature by Year", y = "Temperature") ``` This graph shows the average temperature over the last century. There are a lot of ups and downs in the temperature as seen. After the 1970's there seems to be an overall upward trend up in temperature though by a good bit. Looking at the blue line which is the line of best fit the temperature has gone up by a little less than 2 degrees in this time frame. ```{r} data %>% group_by(year)%>% summarize(avg_precipation = mean(Precipitation, na.rm = TRUE))%>% filter(year > 1925, year < 2025) %>% ggplot(aes(x = year, y = avg_precipation)) + geom_line(color = "gray", size = 1)+ geom_point(color = "black")+ geom_smooth(method = "lm")+ labs(title = "Average Percipitation by Year", y = "Inches") ``` This graph is the same as the one prior but instead shows precipitation on average in inches. As the earth warms up many have claimed this speeds up the evaporation process and therefore it rains more. Looking at the temperature graph and now this graph it in fact has rained more overtime. Looking at the line of best fit rain has increased by about a quarter of an inch over the last century. ```{r} data %>% group_by(year)%>% summarize(avg_heating = mean(Heating.Degree.Days, na.rm = TRUE), avg_cooling = mean(Cooling.Degree.Days, na.rm = TRUE))%>% filter(year > 1925, year < 2025) %>% ggplot(aes(x = year, y = avg_heating, avg_cooling)) + geom_line(aes(y = avg_heating),color = "red", size = 1.1)+ geom_line(aes(y = avg_cooling),color = "blue", size = 1.1)+ labs(title = "Average Number of Heating and Cooling Days by Year", y = "Number of Days") ``` This graph shows the average number of heating degree days (red line) and average number of cooling degree days (blue line) per year overtime. Heating and cooling days are used to measure energy use especially with things like energy required to heat or cool a home. To calculate heating days you take the average temperature for that day, for example 45, and subtract it from 65 to give you 20 heating degree days. For cooling degree days is the opposite. You take the average temperature for the day and then minus 65 to it. If the average temperture was 75 you then do 75-65= 10 Cooling degree days. Overall if the average temperature is above 65 you will have cooling degree days and if its the opposite you will have heating degree days. Turning to the graph, the number of heating degree days has decreased while the number of cooling degree days has increased in this time period. This means there has been more hot days in the summer and less cold days in the winter which is what the temperature graph showed as well. ```{r} data %>% filter(year > 1979, month %in% c("June","July", "August"))%>% mutate(Decade = floor(year / 10) * 10) %>% # Create a Decade column group_by(Decade) %>% # Group by the Decade column summarize(max_temp = mean(Max..Temp.)) %>% ggplot(aes(x=Decade, y=max_temp)) + geom_col(aes(fill = max_temp)) + labs(title = "Average Maximum Temperature during Summer by Decade", y = "Average Maximum Temperature")+ scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(0,95, by = 10)) + scale_fill_gradient(low = "lightblue", high = "red") # Light to dark color ``` In this graph we look at the average max temperatures of these decades during the summer months of June, July and August. We can see that the temperatures have gone up by about a degree and a half over the last 45 years or so. It has increased every decade as well apart from the 1990's. ```{r} data %>% filter(year > 1979, month %in% c("December","January", "February"))%>% mutate(Decade = floor(year / 10) * 10) %>% # Create a Decade column group_by(Decade) %>% # Group by the Decade column summarize(min_temp = mean(Min..Temp.)) %>% ggplot(aes(x=Decade, y=min_temp)) + geom_col(aes(fill = min_temp)) + labs(title = "Average Minimum Temperature during Winter by Decade", y = "Average Minimum Temperature")+ scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(0,25, by = 3)) + scale_fill_gradient(low = "dark blue", high = "light blue") # Light to dark color ``` This graph shows the same as the one previous except it is now the average minimum temperature for the months of December, January, and February. The minimum temperature has also rose over the last 45 years by about 2 degrees. ## Conclusion As you can see based on the graphs, the Continental United States has gotten warmer over the last 100 years. Because of the warmer temperatures and faster evaporation it has in turn, rained more as well. These levels have been quite linear though as there is not a big jump in temperature or rain over the years. There are obviously quite some variability year after year but a consistent increase overall in rain and temperature. This data would support many recent claims of global warming at least here in the United States.