The Strategic Value of Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions for Climate Adaptation

Climate adaptation decisions often rely on long-term climate projections based on assumed emissions scenarios. Instead, climate predictions on subseasonal to interannual and decadal timescales offer complementary insights that bridge the gap between immediate responses and long-term planning, enabling more strategic and dynamic adaptation to a changing climate.

Unlike traditional climate projections, climate predictions are initialized with current observations—including ocean temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and land surface states—and aim to forecast the evolution of the climate system over the coming months to years. This makes it possible to explore probabilistic forecasts of key climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture that reflect both internal variability and forced trends.

By offering a forward-looking view over periods from a few weeks to up to a decade, climate predictions allow decision-makers to anticipate emerging risks and align adaptation strategies with near-future climate realities rather than long-term averages or past conditions. This is particularly critical as the assumption of climate stationarity—the idea that past conditions can serve as a reliable guide for the future—is no longer valid in a rapidly changing climate.

The predictions are especially valuable when focusing on climate extremes, which pose disproportionate risks to societies and infrastructure:

• Heat extremes: Subseasonal to seasonal forecasts can predict the increased likelihood of heatwaves weeks to months in advance. This information is vital for urban adaptation planning, where excessive heat can severely impact public health, energy demand, and the functioning of critical infrastructure. City planners and health services can use such predictions to implement temporary cooling strategies, adjust urban greening plans, or prioritize vulnerable communities for intervention.

• Extreme precipitation and flood risk: Seasonal and interannual climate predictions can indicate the probability of above- or below-normal precipitation patterns, which are crucial for civil protection, flood preparedness, and disaster risk management. Early warnings of a higher likelihood of extreme rainfall or prolonged wet periods can inform reservoir management, emergency response planning, and the pre-positioning of resources. In some cases, decadal predictions can even highlight shifts in baseline risk profiles that justify infrastructure upgrades or long-term land-use adjustments.

As climate-related extremes become more frequent and severe, proactive adaptation based on predictive information becomes not only possible but necessary. Embedding climate predictions into adaptation strategies enables a shift from reactive to anticipatory risk management, enhancing resilience across sectors—from agriculture and water to urban systems and health.