The Data on D.C.: Wizards’ Woes

To determine whether the Washington Wizards truly are one of the worst-performing and poorly managed franchises in the NBA, it’s best to start by looking at their performance relative to league standards. It’s worth noting that the 2011–2012 NBA season was shortened to 66 games due to a lockout, and the 2019–2020 season was disrupted by COVID-19, which affected win totals in those years.

Looking at the animated line graph, the Wizards consistently fall below the league average win total throughout the 2004-2024 period, with only a few years where they approach or surpass the league average.

Notably, the Wizards have not made the playoffs since 2021. As of the end of the 2023–2024 season, only five teams—Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets, Charlotte Hornets, San Antonio Spurs, and Detroit Pistons—had experienced fewer playoff appearances. Although the Rockets and Pistons have since qualified for the 2025 playoffs, those results fall outside the scope of this analysis. Still, the trend highlights how the Wizards remain part of a shrinking group of persistently underperforming franchises.

By comparing the Wizards’ yearly win totals against the NBA average, we can clearly see the team’s long-standing struggles. This initial visualization highlights not just their performance gap, but also hints at deeper issues within the organization. It lays the groundwork for exploring potential root causes—such as draft strategy, coaching stability, and roster construction—in the visualizations that follow.

WRITING FOR THE SECOND GRAPH: WIZARDS COACHING TIMELINE

One of the most visible signs of internal instability is a team’s frequent coaching changes. A revolving door of head coaches often reflects a lack of long-term vision and can disrupt player development and team cohesion. The next visualization looks at the Wizards’ coaching history since 2004, highlighting just how often leadership has shifted in response to ongoing struggles.

This timeline visualizes the Washington Wizards’ head coaching history from 2004 to the present, with each segment representing a coach’s tenure and color-coded by win percentage. One particularly striking observation is that in this 20-year span, not a single coach posted a win percentage above 50%. Even the longest-tenured coaches, such as Eddie Jordan, Randy Wittman, and Scott Brooks, all capped out at 47%. This reflects a prolonged period of mediocrity, where even the “most successful” coaching stints failed to break the .500 mark—highlighting both the challenges of roster construction and the broader organizational struggles to establish a winning culture.

WRITING FOR THIRD GRAPH: WIZARDS DRAFT PLOTLY

However, not all the blame can be placed on coaching instability. A critical factor for long-term success in the NBA is how well a team builds through the draft, especially for franchises that struggle to attract top free agents. Given that the Wizards have had 11 top-10 picks over the past 20 years due to consistent poor regular-season performance, one would expect to see a strong foundation of homegrown talent. However, this has not been the case. The following interactive scatterplot looks at the relationship between draft pick position and the number of years each player spent with the Wizards since 2004.

Ideally, draft picks—especially those selected in favorable positions—would translate into long-term contributors for the franchise. However, this plot reveals a different story: many of the Wizards’ draft selections since 2004 have had relatively short tenures with the team, pointing to a broader pattern of missed opportunities and poor player development. In fact, only 4 players have spent more than 5 seasons with the team, despite the Wizards having 10 top-10 picks during this time.

It is important to note that several draftees never played a game as a Wizard, either due to draft-night trades or being waived before making the final roster. While the draft is supposed to be a long-term solution, Washington has consistently failed to select and develop future stars.

The last All-Star level pick was Bradley Beal who was drafted in 2012. He is also the only player since 2004 to average above 20 points per game - and no longer with the team. Since Beal, the franchise has failed to produce a single All-Star caliber player through the draft. Of the nine first-round picks made from 2016 to 2024, only four—Alex Sarr, Johnny Davis, Bub Carrington, and Corey Kispert—remain on the roster, all drafted within the past four years. This low retention rate and lack of star power underscore how ineffective Washington’s draft strategy has been in shaping a competitive core.

WRITING FOR THE FOURTH GRAPH: WHAT IF DRAFT SHINY APP

To fully grasp the long-term effects of these draft decisions, it’s important to consider not just who the Wizards selected, but who they passed on. The following Shiny App examines draft data from years in which the Wizards held a top-15 pick and highlights high-performing players who were selected later in the same draft class. By comparing each Wizards pick to the players that followed, this interactive tool helps illustrate just how costly some of these missed opportunities have been in shaping the franchise’s trajectory.

Something I found particularly surprising was how frequently the Wizards missed on high-impact players in recent drafts. In each of the last three drafts analyzed (2021, 2022, and 2023), the Wizards picked 15th, 10th, and 8th respectively. Yet, in all three cases, more than 20 players chosen after their pick went on to outperform the Wizards’ selection, based on metrics such as points per game, games played, and overall contribution. While the criteria used cannot fully capture a player’s full potential or fit within a specific team, it tells a compelling story of early impact. These repeated draft misses, especially when picking early, reflect ongoing challenges in the team’s scouting and draft strategy and help explain why the Wizards have struggled to build a competitive core despite frequent opportunities.

The radar plot offers a side-by-side comparison of the Wizards’ draft pick compared to a player selected later in the same draft who outperformed them. Each axis represents a key performance metric such as points per game, assists, rebounds, games played, and win shares, allowing us to visually assess the all-around contribution of each player. The contrast in shape and size between the two profiles underscores how Washington’s draft choices have often fallen short not just in one area, but across multiple aspects of the game.

WRITING FOR THE FIFTH GRAPH: FAN ATTENDANCE

WRITING FOR THE SIXTH GRAPH: FRANCHISE OVERVIEW SHINY APP

WRITING FOR THE SEVENTH/EIGTH GRAPH: WIZARDS CURRENT CAP VS OTHER TEAMS + WIZARDS BREAKDOWN

WRITING FOR THE NINTH GRAPH: WIZARDS AGE BREAKDOWN