#Abstract
West Africa is a region heavily dependent on agriculture, but it faces growing challenges related to climate change and demographic pressure. This study analyzes the relative impact of climate variables (rainfall, temperature) and economic factors (GDP, population, irrigation) on agricultural yield in 10 countries in the region between 2000 and 2020. Based on a statistical analysis (correlation and multiple linear regression), the results show that climate variables have a limited impact, mitigated by local adaptation strategies such as the adoption of modern irrigation systems (“drip”, “sprinkler”) and the efficient use of water resources. In contrast, economic and technological factors, including GDP, irrigable area, and irrigation methods, play a predominant role in improving agricultural productivity. These results highlight the importance of public and private investments in agriculture to strengthen the resilience of agricultural systems to the impacts of climate change. The study concludes with recommendations aimed at promoting sustainable public policies and technological innovations adapted to the specific needs of the region.
West Africa is a region located in the western part of the African continent, bounded by the Atlantic Ocean to the west and south, the Sahara to the north, and approximately the 10° East meridian to the east. With an area of approximately 6.14 million square kilometers, it includes 16 countries and is home to 463,911,877 inhabitants as of April 2, 2025, or 30.1% of the continental population with 2.5% annual growth, 51.2% of which lives in rural areas (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/western-africa-population; April 3, 25). The West African region has notable geographical diversity, including coastal areas, savannahs, and semi-arid regions. This dynamic of rapid population growth, mostly young, should be accompanied by sufficient local production of food products. However, agricultural practices and the availability of water resources, essential for food production, are directly influenced by climatic variability and notable geographical diversity (FAOHome). The climate of West Africa varies from humid tropical along the coasts to arid Sahelian climate, with rainfall decreasing from south to north. Historically, the region was home to great empires such as Ghana, Mali, and Songhai, which prospered thanks to trans-Saharan trade and thriving agriculture. However, European colonization profoundly transformed local economic and social structures, orienting economies toward the export of raw materials at the expense of food production. Since independence between 1957 and 1975, West African nations have been striving to rebuild their economies and strengthen their food sovereignty (slaveryandremembrance.org). Despite these efforts, more than three decades of policies and programs aimed at food self-sufficiency have failed to achieve the desired goals. The region continues to face major challenges such as chronic food insecurity, exacerbated by persistent conflicts, severe climate shocks, and economic hardship This situation raises a central question: why, despite decades of efforts, is West Africa struggling to achieve food self-sufficiency? Identified obstacles include excessive dependence on food imports, weak agricultural infrastructure, the impacts of climate change on yields, and armed conflicts disrupting agricultural activities. These challenges hinder populations’ ability to meet their food needs independently, thus compromising their dignity and well-being. With this in mind, it is imperative to examine the specific factors hindering the achievement of food self-sufficiency in West Africa and to explore hypotheses on the main obstacles that must be overcome to achieve this. Such an analysis is essential for formulating effective strategies to strengthen food security and restore the dignity of West African populations Bibliographic review Topic: “Factors Influencing Food Insecurity in Selected West African Countries” Problem statement : In a context marked by recurring climate shocks and significant demographic pressure, why do West African countries struggle to ensure their food self-sufficiency? More specifically:
• How do climatic factors (rainfall, temperature) influence agricultural production?
• What is the impact of economic variables (GDP, population) and technological factors (irrigation,
agricultural yield) on food security? • What local strategies can mitigate the effects of climate shocks?
West Africa, a region heavily dependent on agriculture, is facing increasing challenges due to climate change (variations in rainfall, rising temperatures) and socioeconomic pressures (rapid population growth, rural poverty). In this context, how do climatic factors (rainfall, temperature) compare with other determinants in explaining food insecurity? What are the economic (GDP, population) and technological (irrigation, water resource management) factors in explaining agricultural yields between 2000 and 2020? In other words, to what extent does climate change actually influence agricultural productivity compared to local adaptation strategies (modern infrastructure, public policies)? Objective: To assess the relative impact of climatic variables (rainfall, temperature) and economic and technological factors (GDP, population, irrigable area, irrigation methods) on agricultural yield in West Africa between 2000 and 2020.
Main Objective: Assess the relative impact of climatic factors (rainfall, temperature) and socio-economic factors (GDP, population, irrigation) on agricultural production and food security. Specific Objectives: • Identify the countries most vulnerable to food insecurity. • Analyze the effectiveness of modern irrigation technologies (drip, sprinkler). • Propose recommendations to improve the resilience of agricultural systems.
Variations in rainfall and temperature have a limited impact on agricultural yield, mitigated by local adaptation strategies such as modern irrigation and efficient use of water resources. Increasing the irrigable area and adopting modern irrigation methods (drip, sprinkler) contribute significantly to improving agricultural yield. The availability of renewable water and the efficiency of agricultural water use play a crucial role in maintaining and improving agricultural yield, even in the face of declining water
Food insecurity is not a new phenomenon for Africa. For over two decades, the continent has been grappling with hunger and food insecurity [1]. It is not always predictable and does not necessarily signify a crisis, yet it remains a critical indicator of societal conditions in the Sahel-Sudan region, showing both geographical and temporal variations [2]. According to the FAO, 11 million people in this region are currently victims of severe food insecurity [3]. Since 2010, food systems have become significantly more vulnerable due to the increased frequency of agro-climatic disruptions, rising food insecurity, and the decline and instability of per capita food production. The absolute number of undernourished individuals in West Africa rose from 32 million to 56 million, increasing the prevalence of undernourishment from 10% in 2014 to 15.2% in 2019, as reported by the FAO [4]. Cities depend on imports for staple goods. Since the 1970s, West Africa has faced an increasing range of shocks and stressors impacting food security [5]. The spike in global agricultural prices in 2008 exposed the fragility of food security in many developing countries, particularly affecting impoverished populations in sub-Saharan African nations [6]. Enhancing food security and nutrition is one of the fundamental strategic objectives outlined by CILSS in its 2050 strategic plan and the 2022-2026 work program. Despite all efforts made by governments and their partners, food and nutritional insecurity continues to worsen annually in the region [7]. Food security is defined as consistent access for all to the necessary food supplies required to lead a healthy and active life. By this definition, achieving food security remains a significant challenge in sub-Saharan Africa [8]. Africa remains a historic epicenter of extreme poverty and food insecurity. The ongoing, if not worsening, precariousness of rural livelihoods—primarily composed of smallholder farmers and agricultural product sellers—is one of the most visible symptoms of the crisis in sub-Saharan agriculture [9]. In 1992, the first International Conference on Nutrition (INC) marked a turning point in how food and nutrition issues were perceived and addressed [10]. In 2008, over four million children under the age of five died directly or indirectly from malnutrition, accounting for more than half of all child deaths globally (UNICEF, 2008a) [11]. Africa is not on track to meet Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 targets to end hunger and ensure access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food for all year-round, as well as to eliminate all forms of malnutrition [12]. In most West African countries, food dependency on the rest of the world has not increased due to the dynamism of local food supply chains, which serve as the real engines of the regional economy. However, actors in these sectors operate in an extremely unfavorable environment, lacking support or infrastructure, leaving the most vulnerable among them in a state of food insecurity [13]. Food systems are at the heart of many of the major global challenges of our time (Nyaku et al., 2022) [14]. Unfortunately, responses to food crises have remained inadequate, focusing on the immediate needs of populations without decisively addressing the structural causes. For instance, there remains a financing gap for food systems in Nigeria [15]. local food chains, the real engines of the regional economy. However, the actors in these sectors operate in an extremely unfavorable context, without aid or infrastructure, putting the most vulnerable among them in a situation of food insecurity [13] . Food systems are at the center of many of the major global challenges of our time (Nyaku et al., 2022) [14] . Unfortunately, responses to food crises have remained insufficient, focusing on the urgent needs of populations without resolutely tackling the structural causes. For example, the financing gap for food systems in Nigeria [15] Presentation of the theme Since the early 1970s, food aid to Africa has continued to increase, even as the continent grapples with persistent food security challenges. Although the most severe famines in the Sahel have subsided, the threat of hunger continues to resurface sporadically. The gravity of Africa’s food security situation was starkly highlighted during the 1980 OAU Economic Summit in Lagos: “Today, the average African has 10% less food available than they did a decade ago. Average food rations have dropped below the minimum essential threshold. Hunger and malnutrition are affecting an ever-growing number of Africans each year, while famine looms over millions of refugees and vulnerable populations.”
Despite these alarming trends, Africa possesses vast untapped resources that could provide viable solutions to its food security challenges. With abundant arable land, water resources, and a young, dynamic workforce, the continent holds significant potential to meet its own food needs and unlock the social and economic benefits of better utilizing its human and natural resource base. However, achieving this requires prioritizing food production and agriculture in national and regional economic planning.
Our focus centers on food insecurity, which remains one of the most pressing and enduring challenges for millions of people in West Africa. Chronic food shortages, exacerbated by factors such as climate variability, inadequate infrastructure, conflict, and inefficient agricultural practices, continue to undermine efforts to achieve self-sufficiency. Addressing these issues demands strategic investments in sustainable agricultural development, improved resource management, and policies that empower local communities to build resilience against future shocks. By doing so, West Africa can move closer to ensuring food security for its rapidly growing population while fostering long-term economic growth and stability and provide possible solutions to these challenges. There is significant potential for Africa to meet its own food needs and fully benefit from the social and economic advantages of better utilizing its human and natural resource heritage. Priority in economic planning must be given to food and agriculture. Our theme focuses on food insecurity, which remains one of the persistent challenges facing millions of people in West Africa.
Geographic location of the project Our project is based on the study of several West African countries in order to obtain a more or less complete regional perspective of the situation of food insecurity in West Africa; there are 12 of these countries as shown in the map be