Tracking Rice Area perfromance: PRiSM estimates vs DA Targets for Semester 1
Introduction
This report provides a simple comparison of PRiSM estimates for the rice area planted in the 1st Semester of 2023 and 2025, against the current Department of Agriculture (DA) targets.
The PRISM Semester 1 estimates for 2023 cover rice areas planted from September 2022 to March 2023, with harvests occurring from December 2022 to June 2023. Similarly, the estimates for Semester 1, 2025, reflect areas planted from September 2024 to March 2025, with harvests from December 2024 to June 2025.
Current DA Target
The table shows the operational target of the Department of Agriculture (DA) for 2025 at PhP 31 Billion budget level anda yield of 4.28 mt/ha.
| Period | Production (mt) | Area Harvested (ha) |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter 1 | 5,114,101.75 | 1,193,881.8 |
| Quarter 2 | 4,091,281.4 | 955,105.44 |
| Quarter 3 | 3,682,153.26 | 859,594.9 |
| Quarter 4 | 7,568,870.59 | 1,766,945.07 |
| Semester 1 | 9,205,383.15 | 2,148,987.24 |
| Semester 2 | 11,251,023.85 | 2,626,539.97 |
| Annual | 20,456,407.00 | 4,775,527.21 |
Semester 1 total
For Semester 1, the Department of Agriculture (DA) target surpasses the actual area harvested in 2023 by 86,285 hectares. Preliminary rice area estimates from PRISM show that the Philippines is expected to harvest approximately 1,963,173 hectares. To meet the DA’s target production for the semester, either an additional 185,814 hectares must be harvested or the national average yield for the remaining months must increase to at least 4.69 metric tons per hectare.
Quarterly breakdown
A detailed breakdown of rice area estimates by quarter highlights shortfalls relative to current DA targets. PRISM data indicates that for Quarter 1 of 2025 (covering harvests from January to March), the actual detected rice area is lower by approximately 66,486 hectares. Preliminary estimates for Quarter 2 (April to June harvests) also point to a projected deficit of around 119,328 hectares.
Monthly trend
Building on the quarterly analysis, a month-by-month decomposition of rice area estimates offers a deeper insight into planting and harvesting variations.