Relation between ruble's (currency in Russia, abbreviate as RUR) exchange rate and oil price in USD (USA dollars)

Ecomonic introduction

Generally assumed that Russian's economy (and so rouble's exchange rate) highly dependend on oil price due to Russia export structure (Russia mainly export hydrocarbons). Some analysts like to say that “oil should cost 3000 roubles” (or some other number, depending on analitic), meaning that if oil price in USD go down, then rouble should go down in value.

This small application tries to illustrate this statement by building linear models:

  • RUR_to_USD = b0 + k / Oil_to_USD
  • RUR_to_USD = k / Oil_to_USD

on user's defined interval.

Example 1

High correlation between rouble exchage rate and oil price in 01.2013-10.2015

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Example 2

Low correlation between rouble exchage rate and oil price between 01.2005-01.2007
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Example 3

Relative low correlation between rouble exchage rate and oil price in 08.2015

plotFromTo(as.Date("2015-08-01", "%Y-%m-%d"), as.Date("2015-09-01", "%Y-%m-%d"))

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