Looking at our first plot there appears to be a somewhat random distribution of the percentage of violent crimes per 1000 people to the average temperature. For some of the lower percentages of violent crimes per 1000 people, there is either a spike or a dip in average temperature, notably around ~0.25-0.27. There is another dip around ~0.43

This plot also shows erratic behavior among most states until ~1998 when things began to calm down and decrease before increasing again in 2001 where percentages have began to rise (not consistently albeit) up to 2016. The randomness in early years reflects historical fluctuations in crime rates, potentially influenced by shifts in policing strategies, economic conditions, and demographic changes. The initial decline post-1998 is consistent with the overall drop in crime during this period. However, the rise starting in 2001 coincides with major social disruptions, including the post-9/11 economic downturn and increased political tensions. The erratic nature of crime rates after 2010 suggests localized factors may be influencing trends, such as state policies, law enforcement funding, and drug- related crime.

Shows really erratic behavior in the percentage of violent crimes per 1000 people until about 2002, when most of the states begin to exhibit less movement. From 2002-2007 there were slight but steady increases, from 2007-2014 there were slight but steady decreases, and from 2014 onward there appears to be an increasing trend again.

From the years 1986-2016 there is erratic behavior among all states of the percentage of deaths per 1000 people until ~1999 when things begin to steadily decline for most states until ultimately beginning to rise again in 2014. The erratic behavior before 2002 may reflect fluctuations in crime trends, economic changes, and variations in law enforcement effectiveness. The decrease from 2007 to 2014 aligns with broader national crime trends, where violent crime continued to decline. The post-2014 increase could be linked to several factors, including the opioid crisis, rising social unrest, and increased gun violence in some urban areas.

Similar to plot 2 in that it exhibits really erratic behavior across all states until ~2002 when percentages of deaths per 1000 people per state begin to somewhat stabilize, and from 2002 onward, make small but consistent increases until 2016.

This plot sees erratic behavior until ~1995 when percentage of homicides per 1000 people begins to decrease (not consistently) across the states until 2015 when we see them rise again. We do not have data past 2016. The erratic behavior before 2002 could be linked to various state-specific policies and enforcement changes. The general decrease from 1995 to 2015 aligns with national homicide trends, often credited to factors like the end of the crack epidemic, improved policing methods, and demographic shifts. The increase post- 2015 mirrors national homicide spikes, which some attribute to factors like social unrest, the opioid crisis, and changes in police-community relations following high-profile cases of police violence

Exhibiting unpredictable behavior until about 1999, most of homicides have seen a decreasing trend up to 2015, save Louisiana which saw many periods of increase during the time.

This plot shows erratic behavior until ~1997 when the percentage of aggravated assaults per 1000 people decreases across the states until 2014 when it begins to increase again. There is no data past 2016. The unpredictability before 1999 aligns with broad crime rate fluctuations. The steady decline from 1999 to 2014 is consistent with declining crime rates nationwide. The post-2014 increase could be linked to factors such as economic inequality, political instability, and increased gun violence. Louisiana’s unique pattern of frequent increases may be tied to state-specific issues, including high poverty rates, systemic issues in law enforcement, and hurricane-related disruptions that have historically led to spikes in violent crime.

From years 1996-2006 there appears to be a net decrease in suicides, however from 2007 & 2008 onward there has been a steady increase. The initial increase was likely fueled by the Housing Bubble collapse of 2008.

This plot shows neither a consistent increase or decrease in the percentage of suicides per 1000 people by state up until 1998 in which a decrease was initiated but quickly followed up by an increase in 2002, and has continued to increase since. The initial decrease in suicides from 1996 to 2006 aligns with increased access to mental health care and advancements in antidepressant treatments. However, the 2008 economic crisis marked a turning point, with financial hardship leading to increased suicides. The continued rise in suicides post-2010 could also be linked to factors like the opioid epidemic, increased social isolation due to technology, and a rise in untreated mental health disorders.

As expected, there has been a net increase in average temperatures for all states

Looking at average temperature by state and region, although there has been small movements since 1986, there has ultimately been an increase across all states in their average temperatures. The overall increase in temperatures aligns with well-documented climate change trends. Warmer temperatures have been linked to increased aggression and violence, potentially influencing crime rates. Additionally, climate changes can exacerbate social and economic stressors, such as natural disasters, food insecurity, and migration patterns, which may indirectly contribute to crime rate fluctuations.

Looking at the average temperature for select states, it appears that over ~30 years there hasn’t been huge changes in temperature, but for most states there has been an increase from their starting point to their ending point (excluding VA). AK saw a spike around 2003 followed by a dip ~2009

While the temperature changes don’t appear extreme, the overall warming trend is consistent with global climate data. Alaska’s spike in 2003 aligns with broader Arctic warming trends, which have led to permafrost melting and disruptions in local ecosystems. The slight cooling around 2009 could be attributed to temporary climate variations, such as changes in ocean currents or volcanic activity. The lack of significant warming in Virginia is interesting, as other states have seen more pronounced increases. This could be due to regional climate patterns or increased urbanization affecting local temperatures differently.

This plot shows a decreasing trend in percentages of homicides per 1000 people in the select states that were also shown above in the temperature plot. AK saw a big spike in percentage of homicides in 2015, but then dropped back down. Another interesting thing to note is that Virginia has seen a steady increase since 2015, which is consistent with the rising temperatures in plot 8

The decreasing trend in homicides across most states aligns with broader national trends in violent crime reduction, which began in the early 1990s. This decline has been attributed to factors like improved policing strategies, economic growth, and changes in demographics. However, Alaska’s 2015 spike could be linked to a rise in substance abuse issues, particularly opioid and alcohol use, which have contributed to increased violent crime in certain areas. Virginia’s steady increase post-2015 aligns with a nationwide uptick in homicides, which some have attributed to socio-political unrest, increased gun ownership, and economic distress following the 2008 financial crisis

This plot shows an interesting trend where most of the states we are singling out decrease for the middle of the years we are looking at, before increasing again around 2000. The exception to this os florida, which decreases the entire time, and Alaska, which begins to decrease around 1995 and then increases again around 2005, with a drastic net increase overall.

The mid-period decrease in suicides followed by a rise post-2000 correlates with several societal changes. The early 2000s saw a rise in prescription antidepressants, potentially contributing to lower suicide rates. However, the increasing trend post-2008 aligns with the economic downturn from the Great Recession, which caused financial distress and job losses. Florida’s consistent decline is interesting, as it contrasts with national trends. This could be due to demographic factors like an aging population (as older adults tend to have lower suicide rates) or improved access to mental health services in the state.

This graph shows the percentage of aggravated assaults per 1000 people for the selected states, which all have a dramatic decrease throughout the timeline we are looking at.

The dramatic decrease in aggravated assault rates across these states aligns with the nationwide drop in violent crime since the 1990s. Factors contributing to this include increased incarceration rates, better law enforcement strategies (such as data-driven policing), and economic improvements. However, the downward trend slowing or reversing in recent years may be connected to increased social stressors, such as economic inequality, mental health crises, and the opioid epidemic, which have been linked to rising violence in certain communities.