Temperature Convergence Analysis: Cornwall vs Inverness

Introduction

Climate change has led to significant temperature variations across different regions, raising concerns about long-term trends. This study investigates the convergence of temperature trends between Cornwall and Inverness from 1990 to the present, examining whether Inverness is experiencing warming that makes its climate increasingly similar to Cornwall. The analysis incorporates historical temperature data, visualized using a 3D wave-like temperature plot, and provides insights into regional climate shifts.

Data & Methodology

Data Sources

The dataset used in this analysis contains recorded maximum and minimum temperatures for Cornwall and Inverness spanning from 1990 onwards. The measurements were taken at the following approximate coordinates:

  • Cornwall (UK): Latitude 50.266°, Longitude -5.052°
  • Inverness (UK): Latitude 57.477°, Longitude -4.224°

Data Processing

  1. Data Transformation:
    • The dataset was reshaped to align all temperature variables into a long format for visualization.
    • Maximum and minimum temperatures for both regions were retained.
  2. Statistical Modeling:
    • A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was applied to smooth temperature trends over time.
    • Predictions were generated to enhance visualization of gradual climate shifts.
  3. 3D Visualization:
    • A wave-like scatter plot was created to track temperature evolution over time.
    • A smooth 3D regression surface (mesh) was overlaid to highlight long-term trends.
    • Data was color-coded to differentiate Cornwall and Inverness temperatures.

Results & Discussion

Key Findings

  • The 3D visualization reveals a converging temperature trend between Cornwall and Inverness.
  • Maximum and minimum temperatures in Inverness show a consistent increase over the years, aligning more closely with Cornwall’s historical temperatures.
  • The rate of warming in Inverness exceeds that of Cornwall, indicating a significant climatic shift.
  • Seasonal variations remain more pronounced in Inverness, but the gap in annual temperature extremes between the two regions has narrowed.

3D Temperature Visualization

The figure below illustrates the temperature trends over time, showing both observed values and the smoothed trend surface:

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Conclusion

The results suggest that Inverness has been experiencing notable warming over the last few decades, leading to a temperature profile increasingly similar to that of Cornwall. While Cornwall’s temperatures have remained relatively stable, Inverness is catching up, demonstrating a regional manifestation of broader climate change effects. This study underscores the need for further climate adaptation strategies in northern UK regions to mitigate the impact of rising temperatures.

Future Work

  • Expanding the dataset: Including additional UK regions for comparative analysis.
  • Seasonal decomposition: Examining changes in seasonal patterns more closely.
  • Impact assessment: Studying the ecological and agricultural implications of warming trends in Inverness.

This analysis serves as a compelling demonstration of climate convergence between two distinct UK locations, with implications for policy-making and regional climate resilience planning.