DRAFT: Ortho Spine Mystery Caller Study
Tyler M. Muffly, MD and Nick Felan
23 April, 2025
FYI: If someone was told to go to the ED then we make their business days until appoint == 0.
tyler install
Read in data
## Rows: 912
## Columns: 80
## $ record_id <dbl> …
## $ physician_information <chr> …
## $ ID <int> …
## $ first <chr> …
## $ last <chr> …
## $ phone <chr> …
## $ state <chr> …
## $ time_zone <chr> …
## $ NPI <chr> …
## $ able_to_contact_office_on_first_call <fct> …
## $ call_date <date> …
## $ day_of_the_week <ord> …
## $ central_number <fct> …
## $ appointment_date <date> …
## $ number_of_transfers <fct> …
## $ call_time_in_minutes <dbl> …
## $ reason_for_exclusions <fct> …
## $ does_the_physician_accept_medicaid <chr> …
## $ if_this_was_a_medicaid_case_please_ask_can_the_patient_be_seen_sooner_if_the_pay_cash_if_the_answer_is_yes_please_insert_date_of_soonest_appointment_if_the_answer_is_no_please_leave_the_date_blank_and_in_the_comment_section_at_the_bottom_please_put_cannot_be_seen_sooner_with_cash_option <date> …
## $ hold_time_in_minutes <dbl> …
## $ notes_if_the_phone_number_is_incorrect_please_google_the_correct_phone_number_and_put_the_correct_phone_number_here_call_or_text_nick_972_971_9698_dr_muffly_cell_phone_720_810_9863_we_are_happy_to_answer_questions <chr> …
## $ name_of_person_completing_form_thank_you <chr> …
## $ complete <chr> …
## $ business_days_until_appointment <dbl> …
## $ insurance <fct> …
## $ basic_first_name <chr> …
## $ basic_last_name <chr> …
## $ basic_middle_name <chr> …
## $ basic_credential <chr> …
## $ basic_sole_proprietor <chr> …
## $ basic_gender <chr> …
## $ basic_enumeration_date <date> …
## $ basic_last_updated <date> …
## $ basic_certification_date <date> …
## $ basic_status <chr> …
## $ basic_name_prefix <chr> …
## $ taxonomies_code <chr> …
## $ taxonomies_taxonomy_group <chr> …
## $ taxonomies_desc <chr> …
## $ taxonomies_state <chr> …
## $ taxonomies_license <chr> …
## $ taxonomies_primary <lgl> …
## $ basic_name_suffix <chr> …
## $ Region <chr> …
## $ Division <chr> …
## $ Medicaid_Expansion <chr> …
## $ gender <chr> …
## $ gender_probability <dbl> …
## $ NDF_ind_pac_id <chr> …
## $ NDF_ind_enrl_id <chr> …
## $ NDF_provider_last_name <chr> …
## $ NDF_provider_first_name <chr> …
## $ NDF_provider_middle_name <chr> …
## $ NDF_suff <chr> …
## $ NDF_gndr <chr> …
## $ NDF_cred <chr> …
## $ NDF_med_sch <chr> …
## $ NDF_grd_yr <dbl> …
## $ NDF_pri_spec <chr> …
## $ NDF_sec_spec_1 <chr> …
## $ NDF_sec_spec_2 <chr> …
## $ NDF_sec_spec_3 <lgl> …
## $ NDF_sec_spec_4 <lgl> …
## $ NDF_sec_spec_all <chr> …
## $ NDF_telehlth <chr> …
## $ NDF_facility_name <chr> …
## $ NDF_org_pac_id <chr> …
## $ NDF_num_org_mem <dbl> …
## $ NDF_adr_ln_1 <chr> …
## $ NDF_adr_ln_2 <chr> …
## $ NDF_ln_2_sprs <chr> …
## $ NDF_citytown <chr> …
## $ NDF_state <chr> …
## $ NDF_zip_code <chr> …
## $ NDF_telephone_number <dbl> …
## $ NDF_ind_assgn <chr> …
## $ NDF_grp_assgn <chr> …
## $ NDF_adrs_id <chr> …
## $ academic <fct> …
## $ Age <dbl> …Quality Check the Data
Are there any physicians included more than twice?
| NPI | N |
|---|---|
| NA | NA |
| :— | –: |
Find physicians called more than three times
| NPI | calls_count |
|---|---|
| NA | NA |
| :— | ———–: |
| NPI | id_number | reason_for_exclusions | business_days_until_appointment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1568563450 | 479 | Must see PA or NP before seeing physician | 69 |
Data Munging Create Median Household Income Quantiles
Sample Size: Post-hoc sample size
Perform post-hoc power analysis
Post-hoc power analysis
Run the post-hoc power analysis
## Loading dataset...
## Dataset loaded: 912 rows, 80 columns
## Analyzing power for business_days_until_appointment by insurance
## Fitting linear model...
## Running power simulation with 100 iterations...
## ..........
## Estimated power: 0.39
##
## ===== INSURANCE POWER ANALYSIS RESULTS =====
##
## 1. SUMMARY STATISTICS BY INSURANCE GROUP:
## # A tibble: 3 × 4
## insurance n mean sd
## <fct> <int> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 BCBS 188 21.9 20.3
## 2 MEDICAID 103 26.6 26.3
## 3 Medicare 167 23.1 22.6
##
## 2. EFFECT SIZE INFORMATION:
## - insuranceMEDICAID: 4.642
## - insuranceMedicare: 1.153
##
## 3. POWER ESTIMATE:
## - Estimated power: 0.39
## - INSUFFICIENT POWER: Below conventional threshold of 0.8
## - Interpretation: The study likely lacked adequate power
## to detect differences between insurance groups.
## - Recommendation: Consider approximately 3x the current sample size
## for adequate power (2736 observations)Power analysis visualization
2 Results
Check data normality
The data is not normally distributed. Plus it is count data. t-test assumes that data is normally distributed, and comparing the means of counts data is also not appropriate, we can check the incidence rate ratio for comparison of business_days_until_appointment among the categories of insurance. Better to use Poisson regression.
The Q-Q plot displayed above evaluates the normality of the variable business_days_until_appointment. In a Q-Q plot, the points should lie along the 45-degree reference line if the data follows a normal distribution.
Interpretation: - The left tail (lower values) of the distribution appears to align well with the normal expectation. - The middle section of the data also follows the reference line reasonably well. - However, the right tail (higher values) shows significant deviation, with points diverging upwards from the reference line, suggesting positive skewness. - This indicates that business_days_until_appointment is not normally distributed, as the right tail contains extreme values (long wait times) that exceed what would be expected under normality.
Implications: - Since normality assumptions are often required for parametric tests, alternative methods like Poisson regression (which you are considering) or non-parametric tests may be more appropriate. - A transformation (e.g., log or square root) might help normalize the data, but this depends on the analytical needs.
## Starting normality check and summary calculation for variable: business_days_until_appointment## Data extracted for variable: business_days_until_appointment## Shapiro-Wilk normality test completed with p-value: 0.00000000000000000000556555581406679## The p-value is less than or equal to 0.05, indicating that the data is not normally distributed.## Histogram with Density Plot created.## Q-Q Plot created.
## Data is NOT normally distributed. Median: 19, IQR: 27.75## $median
## [1] 19
##
## $iqr
## [1] 27.75## Summary calculation completed for variable: business_days_until_appointment## $median
## [1] 19
##
## $iqr
## [1] 27.75Demographics
Appointment Accessibility
## [1] "Physicians were successfully contacted in 45 states including the District of Columbia. The excluded states include Delaware, Hawaii, New Mexico, North Dakota, Wyoming, District of Columbia and Puerto Rico."Overall distribution of calls between BCBS and Medicaid
## [1] 912Insurance Acceptance Rates
Physicians who were contacted and provided an appointment
## [1] 454## [1] 351## [1] "Out of the 303 unique physicians assigned Medicaid, 193 (63.7%; n = 193 / N = 303) were successfully contacted. Of the 193 physicians accepting Medicaid who were successfully contacted, 100 (51.8%; n = 100 / N = 193) provided an appointment date."Individual Insurance Rates of Successfully Making an Appointment
## [1] "Out of the 304 unique physicians assigned to be called for any insurance type, 303 (33%; n = 303 / N = 912) were assigned to Blue Cross/Blue Shield, 303 (33%; n = 303 / N = 912) were assigned to Medicaid, and 304 (33%; n = 304 / N = 912) were assigned."Demographics Sentence
## Our sample included 304 calls to physician offices from 45 states excluding Delaware, Hawaii, New Mexico, North Dakota, Wyoming, District of Columbia and Puerto Rico . We made calls to 303 unique physicians that accepted Blue Cross/Blue Shield. One Hundred physician offices accepted Medicaid, giving a 51.8 % Medicaid acceptance rate for OBGYN practices (n = 100 /N = 193 ). One Hundred Sixty-Seven physician offices accepted Medicare, resulting in a 94.4 % Medicare acceptance rate for OBGYN practices (n = 167 /N = 177 ). Physician offices accepted Blue Cross/Blue Shield at a rate of 98.9 % (n = 187 /N = 189 ).Age Physician Description
## The median age of the participants is 54 years, with an interquartile range (IQR) spanning from 46 years (25th percentile) to 61 years (75th percentile).Gender Physician Description
## In our dataset, the most common physician gender was Male (n = 840/N = 876, 95.9%).3 Exclusions
## [1] "Of the total 912 phone calls made, 561 were successfully connected, and 351 were excluded."Number of physicians excluded
## [1] 192Number of physicians included
## [1] 255A total of ??? physicians accepted Medicaid and/or BCBS and gave a date for the soonest available appointment
## [1] 214## [1] "A total of 214 physicians accepted Medicaid and/or BCBS and gave a date for the soonest available appointment."## [1] "Physician offices accepted Blue Cross/Blue Shield at a rate of 99.7 % (n = 303 / N = 304 )."4 Business Days Wait Time EDA
Graph each variable
4.1 Histogram Plots for Each Predictor
4.2 Business Days by Insurance
4.3 Log Transformation for Business Days
## Plots saved to: output/density_plot_20250423_203927.tiff and output/density_plot_20250423_203927.png
5 Insurance EDA
5.1 Day of the week by insurance
5.1 Central Appointment Line by Insurance
5.2 Physician Characteristics by Insurance
5.2 Physician MD vs. DO by Insurance
6. Table 1 with “from_Nick” data
6.1 Display Summary Table
| Accepts Blue Cross/Blue Shield, Medicare, and Medicaid (N=101) | Does not accept Medicaid (N=91) | Total (N=192) | p value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age_category | 0.48 | |||
| - Less than 40 years old | 16 (15.8%) | 8 (8.8%) | 24 (12.5%) | |
| - 40 to 49 years old | 22 (21.8%) | 19 (20.9%) | 41 (21.4%) | |
| - 50 to 59 years old | 32 (31.7%) | 34 (37.4%) | 66 (34.4%) | |
| - 60 years and older | 31 (30.7%) | 30 (33.0%) | 61 (31.8%) | |
| Gender | 0.62 | |||
| - Female | 2 (2.0%) | 1 (1.1%) | 3 (1.6%) | |
| - Male | 99 (98.0%) | 90 (98.9%) | 189 (98.4%) | |
| Medical School Training | 0.68 | |||
| - Allopathic training | 94 (93.1%) | 86 (94.5%) | 180 (93.8%) | |
| - Osteopathic training | 7 (6.9%) | 5 (5.5%) | 12 (6.2%) | |
| Years in Practice | 0.43 | |||
| - Less than 20 years | 33 (34.0%) | 20 (25.6%) | 53 (30.3%) | |
| - 20 to 40 years | 57 (58.8%) | 50 (64.1%) | 107 (61.1%) | |
| - Greater than 40 years | 7 (7.2%) | 8 (10.3%) | 15 (8.6%) | |
| US Census Bureau Subdivision | < 0.01 | |||
| - East North Central | 20 (19.8%) | 7 (7.8%) | 27 (14.1%) | |
| - East South Central | 9 (8.9%) | 2 (2.2%) | 11 (5.8%) | |
| - Middle Atlantic | 4 (4.0%) | 25 (27.8%) | 29 (15.2%) | |
| - Mountain | 11 (10.9%) | 4 (4.4%) | 15 (7.9%) | |
| - New England | 9 (8.9%) | 6 (6.7%) | 15 (7.9%) | |
| - Pacific | 14 (13.9%) | 15 (16.7%) | 29 (15.2%) | |
| - South Atlantic | 14 (13.9%) | 19 (21.1%) | 33 (17.3%) | |
| - West North Central | 14 (13.9%) | 2 (2.2%) | 16 (8.4%) | |
| - West South Central | 6 (5.9%) | 10 (11.1%) | 16 (8.4%) | |
| Practice Setting | 0.95 | |||
| - Private Practice | 91 (93.8%) | 73 (93.6%) | 164 (93.7%) | |
| - University | 6 (6.2%) | 5 (6.4%) | 11 (6.3%) | |
| Day of the Week Called | 0.38 | |||
| - Monday | 14 (13.9%) | 23 (25.3%) | 37 (19.3%) | |
| - Tuesday | 37 (36.6%) | 22 (24.2%) | 59 (30.7%) | |
| - Wednesday | 30 (29.7%) | 31 (34.1%) | 61 (31.8%) | |
| - Thursday | 17 (16.8%) | 12 (13.2%) | 29 (15.1%) | |
| - Friday | 3 (3.0%) | 3 (3.3%) | 6 (3.1%) | |
| Central Appointment Line | 0.03 | |||
| - Yes | 56 (55.4%) | 36 (39.6%) | 92 (47.9%) | |
| - No | 45 (44.6%) | 55 (60.4%) | 100 (52.1%) | |
| Number of Phone Transfers | 0.51 | |||
| - No transfers | 24 (23.8%) | 30 (33.0%) | 54 (28.1%) | |
| - One transfer | 61 (60.4%) | 46 (50.5%) | 107 (55.7%) | |
| - Two transfers | 14 (13.9%) | 13 (14.3%) | 27 (14.1%) | |
| - More than two transfers | 2 (2.0%) | 2 (2.2%) | 4 (2.1%) | |
| Call time (minutes) | < 0.01 | |||
| - n | 92 | 84 | 176 | |
| - Median (Q1, Q3) | 3.6 (2.6, 5.4) | 2.1 (1.0, 4.0) | 3.1 (1.8, 4.8) | |
| Hold time (minutes) | 0.63 | |||
| - n | 70 | 68 | 138 | |
| - Median (Q1, Q3) | 0.3 (0.1, 1.6) | 0.3 (0.0, 1.1) | 0.3 (0.1, 1.4) | |
| State Medicaid Expansion | 0.26 | |||
| - Expansion state | 83 (82.2%) | 68 (75.6%) | 151 (79.1%) | |
| - Non-expansion state | 18 (17.8%) | 22 (24.4%) | 40 (20.9%) | |
| able_to_contact_office_on_first_call | 0.93 | |||
| - No | 14 (13.9%) | 13 (14.3%) | 27 (14.1%) | |
| - Yes | 87 (86.1%) | 78 (85.7%) | 165 (85.9%) | |
| reason_for_exclusions | ||||
| - Included where physician was able to be contacted | 101 (100.0%) | 91 (100.0%) | 192 (100.0%) | |
| - Went to voicemail | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | |
| - Physician referral required before scheduling appointment | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | |
| - Greater than 5 minutes on hold | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | |
| - Number contacted did not correspond to expected office/specialty | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | |
| - Not accepting new patients | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | |
| - Must see PA or NP before seeing physician | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | |
| - Phone not answered or busy signal on repeat calls | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | |
| - Closed medical system (e.g. Kaiser or military hospital) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) | 0 (0.0%) |
6.2 Save Summary Table to Word
7. Wait Time by Insurance EDA Figures
7.1 Line Plot of Waiting Time by Insurance Type
7.2 Scatter Plot of Waiting Times by Insurance Type
## Plots saved to: /Users/tylermuffly/Dropbox (Personal)/Mystery shopper/mystery_shopper/ortho_spine/Figures/spine_insurance_none_20250423_203933.tiff and /Users/tylermuffly/Dropbox (Personal)/Mystery shopper/mystery_shopper/ortho_spine/Figures/spine_insurance_none_20250423_203933.png
7.3 Density Plot of Waiting Times by Insurance
## Plots saved to: /Users/tylermuffly/Dropbox (Personal)/Mystery shopper/mystery_shopper/ortho_spine/Figures/urgent_GYN_vs_insurance_density_20250423_203934.tiff and /Users/tylermuffly/Dropbox (Personal)/Mystery shopper/mystery_shopper/ortho_spine/Figures/urgent_GYN_vs_insurance_density_20250423_203934.png
Poisson Model The models need to be able to deal with NA in the
business_days_until_appointment outcome variable (454) and
also non-parametric data.
10. Poisson Regression Model Analysis of Wait Time
business_days_until_appointment can be transformed with
a square root function so that 0 is not infinity from
log(business_days_until_appointment).
10.1 Descriptive Analysis of Wait Times
10.1.1 Wait Time with Single Predictor
10.2 Is there a Difference in Wait Times by Insurance ONLY?
##
## Call:
## glm(formula = business_days_until_appointment ~ as.factor(insurance),
## family = "poisson", data = df)
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 3.27989 0.01911 171.592 < 0.0000000000000002
## as.factor(insurance)Medicare -0.14076 0.02500 -5.631 0.00000001788421205
## as.factor(insurance)BCBS -0.19199 0.02466 -7.787 0.00000000000000686
##
## (Intercept) ***
## as.factor(insurance)Medicare ***
## as.factor(insurance)BCBS ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for poisson family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 8965.4 on 457 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 8904.5 on 455 degrees of freedom
## (454 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 10944
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5Interpretation of the Poisson Regression Results
11. Model Interpretation and Variable Extraction
11.1 Correct Extraction of Variable Names and Summary
✅ Model Interpretation Reference Category: MEDICAID Intercept (Baseline): 26.57 → The expected business days until an appointment for Medicaid patients. Medicare: IRR = 0.87 (CI: 0.83 to 0.91) This means Medicare patients wait 13% fewer days (since 1 - 0.87 = 0.13) compared to Medicaid. p < 0.01, so this effect is statistically significant. BCBS: IRR = 0.83 (CI: 0.79 to 0.87) This means BCBS patients wait 17% fewer days (1 - 0.83 = 0.17) compared to Medicaid. p < 0.01, confirming statistical significance.
## Using Poisson regression, the baseline rate of business_days_until_appointment (intercept) is estimated to be 26.57 times the reference category ( MEDICAID ), with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 25.59 to 27.58 . For Medicare compared to the reference category ( MEDICAID ), the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of business_days_until_appointment is estimated to be 0.87 , indicating that the waiting time for Medicare patients is lower than for those with MEDICAID . The 95% confidence interval for the IRR ranges from 0.83 to 0.91 , with p < 0.01 . For BCBS compared to the reference category ( MEDICAID ), the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of business_days_until_appointment is estimated to be 0.83 , indicating that the waiting time for BCBS patients is lower than for those with MEDICAID . The 95% confidence interval for the IRR ranges from 0.79 to 0.87 , with p < 0.01 .20. Full Poisson Model: poisson_full_model
20.1 Specifying Full Model for Predictors
20.2 Single Predictor Models for Evaluating Significance
This analysis explores the significance of various predictors on the
outcome variable business_days_until_appointment,
accounting for the random effects associated with physicians. The goal
is to identify which variables significantly influence the time to
appointment while controlling for variability across individual
physicians.
The step-by-step approach demonstrates how individual predictors are assessed for their significance in influencing the response variable while accounting for the random effects associated with repeated measures on physicians. Significant variables will be used in the final multivariate model to better understand their impact on appointment wait times.
20.2.1 Preparing Data for Single Predictor Models
For poisson_full_model: This analysis explores the
significance of various predictors on the outcome variable
business_days_until_appointment, accounting for the random
effects associated with physicians. The goal is to identify which
variables significantly influence the time to appointment while
controlling for variability across individual physicians.
The step-by-step approach demonstrates how individual predictors are assessed for their significance in influencing the response variable while accounting for the random effects associated with repeated measures on physicians. Significant variables will be used in the final multivariate model to better understand their impact on appointment wait times.
Included predictors
## [1] "phone"
## [2] "time_zone"
## [3] "insurance"
## [4] "able_to_contact_office_on_first_call"
## [5] "call_date"
## [6] "day_of_the_week"
## [7] "central_number"
## [8] "appointment_date"
## [9] "number_of_transfers"
## [10] "call_time_in_minutes"
## [11] "if_this_was_a_medicaid_case_please_ask_can_the_patient_be_seen_sooner_if_the_pay_cash_if_the_answer_is_yes_please_insert_date_of_soonest_appointment_if_the_answer_is_no_please_leave_the_date_blank_and_in_the_comment_section_at_the_bottom_please_put_cannot_be_seen_sooner_with_cash_option"
## [12] "hold_time_in_minutes"
## [13] "notes_if_the_phone_number_is_incorrect_please_google_the_correct_phone_number_and_put_the_correct_phone_number_here_call_or_text_nick_972_971_9698_dr_muffly_cell_phone_720_810_9863_we_are_happy_to_answer_questions"
## [14] "name_of_person_completing_form_thank_you"
## [15] "complete"
## [16] "Insurance Dichotomized"
## [17] "basic_first_name"
## [18] "basic_last_name"
## [19] "basic_middle_name"
## [20] "basic_credential"
## [21] "basic_sole_proprietor"
## [22] "basic_gender"
## [23] "basic_enumeration_date"
## [24] "basic_last_updated"
## [25] "basic_certification_date"
## [26] "basic_status"
## [27] "basic_name_prefix"
## [28] "taxonomies_code"
## [29] "taxonomies_taxonomy_group"
## [30] "taxonomies_desc"
## [31] "taxonomies_state"
## [32] "taxonomies_license"
## [33] "taxonomies_primary"
## [34] "basic_name_suffix"
## [35] "Region"
## [36] "Division"
## [37] "Medicaid_Expansion"
## [38] "gender"
## [39] "gender_probability"
## [40] "NDF_ind_pac_id"
## [41] "NDF_ind_enrl_id"
## [42] "NDF_provider_last_name"
## [43] "NDF_provider_first_name"
## [44] "NDF_provider_middle_name"
## [45] "NDF_suff"
## [46] "NDF_gndr"
## [47] "NDF_cred"
## [48] "NDF_med_sch"
## [49] "NDF_grd_yr"
## [50] "NDF_pri_spec"
## [51] "NDF_sec_spec_1"
## [52] "NDF_sec_spec_2"
## [53] "NDF_sec_spec_3"
## [54] "NDF_sec_spec_4"
## [55] "NDF_sec_spec_all"
## [56] "NDF_telehlth"
## [57] "NDF_facility_name"
## [58] "NDF_org_pac_id"
## [59] "NDF_num_org_mem"
## [60] "NDF_adr_ln_1"
## [61] "NDF_adr_ln_2"
## [62] "NDF_ln_2_sprs"
## [63] "NDF_citytown"
## [64] "NDF_state"
## [65] "NDF_zip_code"
## [66] "NDF_telephone_number"
## [67] "NDF_ind_assgn"
## [68] "NDF_grp_assgn"
## [69] "NDF_adrs_id"
## [70] "academic"
## [71] "Age"20.2.2.5 Checking Model
## [1] "record_id"
## [2] "physician_information"
## [3] "ID"
## [4] "first"
## [5] "last"
## [6] "phone"
## [7] "state"
## [8] "time_zone"
## [9] "NPI"
## [10] "insurance"
## [11] "able_to_contact_office_on_first_call"
## [12] "call_date"
## [13] "day_of_the_week"
## [14] "central_number"
## [15] "appointment_date"
## [16] "number_of_transfers"
## [17] "call_time_in_minutes"
## [18] "reason_for_exclusions"
## [19] "does_the_physician_accept_medicaid"
## [20] "if_this_was_a_medicaid_case_please_ask_can_the_patient_be_seen_sooner_if_the_pay_cash_if_the_answer_is_yes_please_insert_date_of_soonest_appointment_if_the_answer_is_no_please_leave_the_date_blank_and_in_the_comment_section_at_the_bottom_please_put_cannot_be_seen_sooner_with_cash_option"
## [21] "hold_time_in_minutes"
## [22] "notes_if_the_phone_number_is_incorrect_please_google_the_correct_phone_number_and_put_the_correct_phone_number_here_call_or_text_nick_972_971_9698_dr_muffly_cell_phone_720_810_9863_we_are_happy_to_answer_questions"
## [23] "name_of_person_completing_form_thank_you"
## [24] "complete"
## [25] "business_days_until_appointment"
## [26] "Insurance Dichotomized"
## [27] "basic_first_name"
## [28] "basic_last_name"
## [29] "basic_middle_name"
## [30] "basic_credential"
## [31] "basic_sole_proprietor"
## [32] "basic_gender"
## [33] "basic_enumeration_date"
## [34] "basic_last_updated"
## [35] "basic_certification_date"
## [36] "basic_status"
## [37] "basic_name_prefix"
## [38] "taxonomies_code"
## [39] "taxonomies_taxonomy_group"
## [40] "taxonomies_desc"
## [41] "taxonomies_state"
## [42] "taxonomies_license"
## [43] "taxonomies_primary"
## [44] "basic_name_suffix"
## [45] "Region"
## [46] "Division"
## [47] "Medicaid_Expansion"
## [48] "gender"
## [49] "gender_probability"
## [50] "NDF_ind_pac_id"
## [51] "NDF_ind_enrl_id"
## [52] "NDF_provider_last_name"
## [53] "NDF_provider_first_name"
## [54] "NDF_provider_middle_name"
## [55] "NDF_suff"
## [56] "NDF_gndr"
## [57] "NDF_cred"
## [58] "NDF_med_sch"
## [59] "NDF_grd_yr"
## [60] "NDF_pri_spec"
## [61] "NDF_sec_spec_1"
## [62] "NDF_sec_spec_2"
## [63] "NDF_sec_spec_3"
## [64] "NDF_sec_spec_4"
## [65] "NDF_sec_spec_all"
## [66] "NDF_telehlth"
## [67] "NDF_facility_name"
## [68] "NDF_org_pac_id"
## [69] "NDF_num_org_mem"
## [70] "NDF_adr_ln_1"
## [71] "NDF_adr_ln_2"
## [72] "NDF_ln_2_sprs"
## [73] "NDF_citytown"
## [74] "NDF_state"
## [75] "NDF_zip_code"
## [76] "NDF_telephone_number"
## [77] "NDF_ind_assgn"
## [78] "NDF_grp_assgn"
## [79] "NDF_adrs_id"
## [80] "academic"
## [81] "Age"## Linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood . t-tests use Satterthwaite's
## method [lmerModLmerTest]
## Formula: business_days_until_appointment ~ insurance + day_of_the_week +
## central_number + number_of_transfers + call_time_in_minutes +
## hold_time_in_minutes + NDF_cred + gender + Division + Medicaid_Expansion +
## NDF_grd_yr + academic + Age + (1 | NPI)
## Data: df3_filtered
## Control: lmerControl(optimizer = "bobyqa")
##
## AIC BIC logLik -2*log(L) df.resid
## 2439.2 2544.3 -1190.6 2381.2 248
##
## Scaled residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -2.1641 -0.3648 -0.0597 0.3419 3.9768
##
## Random effects:
## Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
## NPI (Intercept) 273.5 16.54
## Residual 133.4 11.55
## Number of obs: 277, groups: NPI, 167
##
## Fixed effects:
## Estimate Std. Error df
## (Intercept) -900.7927 969.5450 181.0971
## insuranceMedicare -2.2521 2.3845 160.6899
## insuranceBCBS -3.6876 2.3347 165.8284
## day_of_the_week.L 3.2670 5.2817 161.9965
## day_of_the_week.Q 0.2040 4.3141 158.3134
## day_of_the_week.C -1.6185 2.9000 157.9465
## day_of_the_week^4 -2.1774 2.1523 199.6156
## central_numberYes 2.3479 2.2842 186.7260
## number_of_transfersOne transfer -2.2333 2.8968 209.4668
## number_of_transfersTwo transfers 2.6903 3.5893 204.4716
## number_of_transfersMore than two transfers 12.0685 6.4182 257.8206
## call_time_in_minutes -1.6916 0.6433 246.9160
## hold_time_in_minutes 2.3528 0.9704 209.9289
## NDF_credMD 5.2524 6.2220 182.8579
## genderMale 14.8506 8.9456 174.0553
## DivisionEast South Central 20.5432 9.6636 173.5987
## DivisionMiddle Atlantic -0.7396 6.7989 174.9848
## DivisionMountain 10.8758 6.2378 169.4990
## DivisionNew England 14.9576 6.5047 174.5675
## DivisionPacific 8.6929 5.5782 173.0639
## DivisionSouth Atlantic 21.7108 8.8297 177.6391
## DivisionWest North Central 15.0473 6.0016 173.4076
## DivisionWest South Central -4.5802 6.3934 174.9259
## Medicaid_ExpansionNon-expansion state -12.8144 7.5275 174.6582
## NDF_grd_yr 0.4397 0.4728 181.1669
## academicUniversity 19.3552 6.5820 173.4308
## Age 0.4596 0.4893 180.4244
## t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) -0.929 0.35408
## insuranceMedicare -0.944 0.34635
## insuranceBCBS -1.579 0.11613
## day_of_the_week.L 0.619 0.53708
## day_of_the_week.Q 0.047 0.96235
## day_of_the_week.C -0.558 0.57757
## day_of_the_week^4 -1.012 0.31292
## central_numberYes 1.028 0.30532
## number_of_transfersOne transfer -0.771 0.44161
## number_of_transfersTwo transfers 0.750 0.45439
## number_of_transfersMore than two transfers 1.880 0.06119 .
## call_time_in_minutes -2.630 0.00908 **
## hold_time_in_minutes 2.425 0.01618 *
## NDF_credMD 0.844 0.39968
## genderMale 1.660 0.09870 .
## DivisionEast South Central 2.126 0.03493 *
## DivisionMiddle Atlantic -0.109 0.91350
## DivisionMountain 1.744 0.08305 .
## DivisionNew England 2.299 0.02266 *
## DivisionPacific 1.558 0.12097
## DivisionSouth Atlantic 2.459 0.01490 *
## DivisionWest North Central 2.507 0.01309 *
## DivisionWest South Central -0.716 0.47470
## Medicaid_ExpansionNon-expansion state -1.702 0.09047 .
## NDF_grd_yr 0.930 0.35361
## academicUniversity 2.941 0.00372 **
## Age 0.939 0.34881
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1## GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## insurance 1.088104 2 1.021334
## day_of_the_week 1.338300 4 1.037097
## central_number 1.525621 1 1.235160
## number_of_transfers 1.682347 3 1.090568
## call_time_in_minutes 1.914536 1 1.383668
## hold_time_in_minutes 1.835923 1 1.354962
## NDF_cred 1.109456 1 1.053307
## gender 1.049218 1 1.024314
## Medicaid_Expansion 1.093073 1 1.045501
## academic 1.075542 1 1.037083
## Age 1.031521 1 1.015638## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Adaptive
## Gauss-Hermite Quadrature, nAGQ = 0) [glmerMod]
## Family: poisson ( log )
## Formula:
## business_days_until_appointment ~ number_of_transfers + call_time_in_minutes +
## Division + academic + insurance + Medicaid_Expansion + gender +
## hold_time_in_minutes + (1 | NPI)
## Data: df3
##
## AIC BIC logLik -2*log(L) df.resid
## 2829.9 2904.4 -1394.9 2789.9 287
##
## Scaled residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.7234 -0.7425 -0.0429 0.4205 6.7329
##
## Random effects:
## Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
## NPI (Intercept) 0.8818 0.939
## Number of obs: 307, groups: NPI, 183
##
## Fixed effects:
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) 1.81487 0.42177 4.303
## number_of_transfersOne transfer -0.05194 0.05543 -0.937
## number_of_transfersTwo transfers 0.09353 0.06901 1.355
## number_of_transfersMore than two transfers 0.12142 0.13579 0.894
## call_time_in_minutes -0.04520 0.01180 -3.829
## DivisionEast South Central 1.01552 0.41615 2.440
## DivisionMiddle Atlantic 0.17027 0.33432 0.509
## DivisionMountain 0.78733 0.30393 2.591
## DivisionNew England 0.91756 0.32204 2.849
## DivisionPacific 0.75365 0.26920 2.800
## DivisionSouth Atlantic 0.85734 0.37208 2.304
## DivisionWest North Central 0.79461 0.29315 2.711
## DivisionWest South Central -0.22151 0.32433 -0.683
## academicUniversity 0.80837 0.29841 2.709
## insuranceMedicare -0.10353 0.04050 -2.556
## insuranceBCBS -0.13203 0.03784 -3.489
## Medicaid_ExpansionNon-expansion state -0.19317 0.31113 -0.621
## genderMale 0.54519 0.37373 1.459
## hold_time_in_minutes 0.07784 0.01796 4.334
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.0000169 ***
## number_of_transfersOne transfer 0.348673
## number_of_transfersTwo transfers 0.175328
## number_of_transfersMore than two transfers 0.371233
## call_time_in_minutes 0.000129 ***
## DivisionEast South Central 0.014676 *
## DivisionMiddle Atlantic 0.610545
## DivisionMountain 0.009583 **
## DivisionNew England 0.004383 **
## DivisionPacific 0.005117 **
## DivisionSouth Atlantic 0.021212 *
## DivisionWest North Central 0.006716 **
## DivisionWest South Central 0.494622
## academicUniversity 0.006751 **
## insuranceMedicare 0.010588 *
## insuranceBCBS 0.000485 ***
## Medicaid_ExpansionNon-expansion state 0.534685
## genderMale 0.144624
## hold_time_in_minutes 0.0000147 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Adaptive
## Gauss-Hermite Quadrature, nAGQ = 0) [glmerMod]
## Family: poisson ( log )
## Formula: business_days_until_appointment ~ insurance + day_of_the_week +
## central_number + number_of_transfers + call_time_in_minutes +
## hold_time_in_minutes + NDF_cred + gender + Division + Medicaid_Expansion +
## NDF_grd_yr + academic + Age + (1 | NPI)
## Data: df3_filtered
##
## AIC BIC logLik -2*log(L) df.resid
## 2544.8 2646.3 -1244.4 2488.8 249
##
## Scaled residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.6279 -0.6748 -0.0558 0.4211 5.7252
##
## Random effects:
## Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
## NPI (Intercept) 0.8477 0.9207
## Number of obs: 277, groups: NPI, 167
##
## Fixed effects:
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) -57.66554 48.02183 -1.201
## insuranceMedicare -0.09581 0.04504 -2.127
## insuranceBCBS -0.13585 0.04309 -3.153
## day_of_the_week.L 0.11705 0.09175 1.276
## day_of_the_week.Q 0.04829 0.07829 0.617
## day_of_the_week.C -0.14468 0.05261 -2.750
## day_of_the_week^4 -0.07284 0.04205 -1.732
## central_numberYes 0.04092 0.04948 0.827
## number_of_transfersOne transfer -0.04710 0.06661 -0.707
## number_of_transfersTwo transfers 0.16137 0.07960 2.027
## number_of_transfersMore than two transfers 0.40016 0.15967 2.506
## call_time_in_minutes -0.06607 0.01376 -4.801
## hold_time_in_minutes 0.09072 0.01996 4.546
## NDF_credMD 0.04858 0.30660 0.158
## genderMale 1.09545 0.47273 2.317
## DivisionEast South Central 1.06728 0.48063 2.221
## DivisionMiddle Atlantic 0.05195 0.34587 0.150
## DivisionMountain 0.85892 0.31321 2.742
## DivisionNew England 0.98271 0.32357 3.037
## DivisionPacific 0.69367 0.28031 2.475
## DivisionSouth Atlantic 1.04516 0.44093 2.370
## DivisionWest North Central 0.82986 0.30042 2.762
## DivisionWest South Central -0.28147 0.32691 -0.861
## Medicaid_ExpansionNon-expansion state -0.38457 0.37396 -1.028
## NDF_grd_yr 0.02885 0.02342 1.232
## academicUniversity 0.81001 0.32289 2.509
## Age 0.02460 0.02421 1.016
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.22982
## insuranceMedicare 0.03339 *
## insuranceBCBS 0.00162 **
## day_of_the_week.L 0.20204
## day_of_the_week.Q 0.53732
## day_of_the_week.C 0.00596 **
## day_of_the_week^4 0.08325 .
## central_numberYes 0.40818
## number_of_transfersOne transfer 0.47948
## number_of_transfersTwo transfers 0.04262 *
## number_of_transfersMore than two transfers 0.01220 *
## call_time_in_minutes 0.00000158 ***
## hold_time_in_minutes 0.00000547 ***
## NDF_credMD 0.87410
## genderMale 0.02049 *
## DivisionEast South Central 0.02638 *
## DivisionMiddle Atlantic 0.88060
## DivisionMountain 0.00610 **
## DivisionNew England 0.00239 **
## DivisionPacific 0.01334 *
## DivisionSouth Atlantic 0.01777 *
## DivisionWest North Central 0.00574 **
## DivisionWest South Central 0.38923
## Medicaid_ExpansionNon-expansion state 0.30377
## NDF_grd_yr 0.21786
## academicUniversity 0.01212 *
## Age 0.30945
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1## Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Adaptive
## Gauss-Hermite Quadrature, nAGQ = 0) [glmerMod]
## Family: poisson ( log )
## Formula:
## business_days_until_appointment ~ day_of_the_week + number_of_transfers +
## hold_time_in_minutes + academic + insurance + gender + Division +
## Medicaid_Expansion + (1 | NPI)
## Data: df3
##
## AIC BIC logLik -2*log(L) df.resid
## 2882.1 2968.1 -1418.0 2836.1 288
##
## Scaled residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.9826 -0.7306 -0.0316 0.5494 5.9409
##
## Random effects:
## Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.
## NPI (Intercept) 0.8746 0.9352
## Number of obs: 311, groups: NPI, 184
##
## Fixed effects:
## Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept) 1.809730 0.420663 4.302
## day_of_the_week.L 0.188706 0.080663 2.339
## day_of_the_week.Q 0.041672 0.066491 0.627
## day_of_the_week.C -0.076727 0.047393 -1.619
## day_of_the_week^4 -0.006927 0.039022 -0.178
## number_of_transfersOne transfer -0.098276 0.054036 -1.819
## number_of_transfersTwo transfers 0.048203 0.065962 0.731
## number_of_transfersMore than two transfers 0.085661 0.136868 0.626
## hold_time_in_minutes 0.032325 0.015055 2.147
## academicUniversity 0.789358 0.297350 2.655
## insuranceMedicare -0.108574 0.040314 -2.693
## insuranceBCBS -0.135947 0.038410 -3.539
## genderMale 0.552043 0.372393 1.482
## DivisionEast South Central 0.982287 0.414732 2.368
## DivisionMiddle Atlantic 0.137376 0.333142 0.412
## DivisionMountain 0.763503 0.302705 2.522
## DivisionNew England 0.889255 0.320839 2.772
## DivisionPacific 0.715582 0.266252 2.688
## DivisionSouth Atlantic 0.846515 0.370595 2.284
## DivisionWest North Central 0.730584 0.292065 2.501
## DivisionWest South Central -0.274034 0.323091 -0.848
## Medicaid_ExpansionNon-expansion state -0.224347 0.309832 -0.724
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.0000169 ***
## day_of_the_week.L 0.019314 *
## day_of_the_week.Q 0.530828
## day_of_the_week.C 0.105457
## day_of_the_week^4 0.859099
## number_of_transfersOne transfer 0.068955 .
## number_of_transfersTwo transfers 0.464923
## number_of_transfersMore than two transfers 0.531404
## hold_time_in_minutes 0.031783 *
## academicUniversity 0.007939 **
## insuranceMedicare 0.007077 **
## insuranceBCBS 0.000401 ***
## genderMale 0.138229
## DivisionEast South Central 0.017861 *
## DivisionMiddle Atlantic 0.680072
## DivisionMountain 0.011660 *
## DivisionNew England 0.005577 **
## DivisionPacific 0.007196 **
## DivisionSouth Atlantic 0.022359 *
## DivisionWest North Central 0.012369 *
## DivisionWest South Central 0.396347
## Medicaid_ExpansionNon-expansion state 0.469008
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1Good use this!
Interpretation of Poisson Mixed-Effects Model for Business Days Until Appointment
Your Poisson regression model is modeling the number of business days until an appointment using multiple predictors, while accounting for random effects at the physician level (NPI).
🔍 Model Fit & Diagnostics
- AIC (Akaike Information Criterion):
2829.9→ Used for model comparison (lower is better). - BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion):
2904.4→ Penalizes complexity more than AIC. - Log-likelihood:
-1394.9(Used in model comparison). - Deviance:
2789.9→ A measure of goodness of fit. - Number of observations:
307 - Number of groups (Physicians/NPI):
183
📌 Random Effects (NPI - Physician Level)
Variance of intercept across physicians:
0.8818Std. Dev of intercept across physicians:
0.939Interpretation: There is substantial variation across physicians in how long patients wait for appointments, suggesting physician-level factors influence waiting time.
📌 Key Fixed Effects Interpretation
For Poisson models, the coefficients represent log incidence rate ratios (IRRs). To interpret them in terms of waiting time, we exponentiate the coefficients.
1️⃣ Number of Transfers
| Variable | Estimate | IRR (Exp(Estimate)) | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| One transfer | -0.05194 |
0.9494 |
No significant impact on wait time (p = 0.348) |
| Two transfers | 0.09353 |
1.0981 |
No significant impact (p = 0.175) |
| More than two transfers | 0.12142 |
1.1291 |
No significant impact (p = 0.371) |
🔹 Takeaway: The number of phone transfers does not significantly impact appointment wait time.
2️⃣ Call Time and Hold Time
| Variable | Estimate | IRR | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Call time (minutes) | -0.0452 |
0.9558 |
Longer calls → shorter wait times
(p = 0.0001) |
| Hold time (minutes) | 0.0778 |
1.081 |
Longer hold times → longer wait times
(p < 0.0001) |
🔹 Takeaway:
- Each extra minute spent on the call reduces the expected wait
time by ~4.4%. - Each extra minute on hold increases
the expected wait time by ~8.1%.
3️⃣ Geographic Division (Reference: East North Central)
| Division | Estimate | IRR | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| East South Central | 1.01552 |
2.76 |
76% longer wait (p = 0.014) |
| Middle Atlantic | 0.17027 |
1.19 |
No significant difference (p = 0.610) |
| Mountain | 0.78733 |
2.20 |
120% longer wait (p = 0.009) |
| New England | 0.91756 |
2.50 |
150% longer wait (p = 0.004) |
| Pacific | 0.75365 |
2.12 |
112% longer wait (p = 0.005) |
| South Atlantic | 0.85734 |
2.36 |
136% longer wait (p = 0.021) |
| West North Central | 0.79461 |
2.21 |
121% longer wait (p = 0.0067) |
| West South Central | -0.22151 |
0.80 |
20% shorter wait (p = 0.494) |
🔹 Takeaway:
- East South Central, Mountain, New England, Pacific, South
Atlantic, and West North Central regions all have significantly longer
wait times than East North Central.
- West South Central has shorter wait times, but this is not
significant.
4️⃣ Academic vs. Private Practice
| Variable | Estimate | IRR | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Academic (vs. Private Practice) | 0.80837 |
2.24 |
124% longer wait times at university settings
(p = 0.0067) |
🔹 Takeaway: University-affiliated practices have significantly longer wait times than private practices.
5️⃣ Insurance Type (Reference: Medicaid)
| Insurance | Estimate | IRR | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare | -0.10353 |
0.90 |
10% shorter wait times
(p = 0.011) |
| BCBS | -0.13203 |
0.87 |
13% shorter wait times
(p = 0.0005) |
🔹 Takeaway:
- Medicare and BCBS patients wait significantly fewer days than
Medicaid patients. - BCBS patients have the shortest
wait times.
6️⃣ Medicaid Expansion
| Variable | Estimate | IRR | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-expansion state (vs. Expansion state) | -0.19317 |
0.82 |
18% shorter wait in non-expansion states
(p = 0.535) |
🔹 Takeaway: No significant impact of Medicaid expansion status on wait times.
7️⃣ Gender
| Variable | Estimate | IRR | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male (vs. Female) | 0.54519 |
1.72 |
72% longer wait times for male physicians
(p = 0.144) |
🔹 Takeaway: Not statistically significant
(p = 0.144), but suggests male physicians may have
longer wait times.
✅ Final Summary
- Key Drivers of Longer Wait Times
- University-affiliated practices (124% longer wait
times)
- East South Central, Mountain, New England, Pacific, South
Atlantic, and West North Central regions have longer wait
times
- Longer hold times increase wait time (+8.1% per extra minute on hold)
- University-affiliated practices (124% longer wait
times)
- Key Drivers of Shorter Wait Times
- BCBS (-13%) and Medicare (-10%) patients wait fewer days
than Medicaid patients
- Longer call durations reduce wait times (-4.4% per
minute)
- West South Central has shorter wait times (not significant)
- BCBS (-13%) and Medicare (-10%) patients wait fewer days
than Medicaid patients
How to get the IRR
## Term IRR CI_95
## (Intercept) 6.1087954 6.11 (2.68, 13.93)
## day_of_the_week.L 1.2076859 1.21 (1.03, 1.41)
## day_of_the_week.Q 1.0425529 1.04 (0.92, 1.19)
## day_of_the_week.C 0.9261431 0.93 (0.84, 1.02)
## day_of_the_week^4 0.9930967 0.99 (0.92, 1.07)
## number_of_transfersOne transfer 0.9063990 0.91 (0.82, 1.01)
## number_of_transfersTwo transfers 1.0493834 1.05 (0.92, 1.19)
## number_of_transfersMore than two transfers 1.0894369 1.09 (0.83, 1.42)
## hold_time_in_minutes 1.0328528 1.03 (1.00, 1.06)
## academicUniversity 2.2019834 2.20 (1.23, 3.94)
## insuranceMedicare 0.8971126 0.90 (0.83, 0.97)
## insuranceBCBS 0.8728887 0.87 (0.81, 0.94)
## genderMale 1.7367973 1.74 (0.84, 3.60)
## DivisionEast South Central 2.6705557 2.67 (1.18, 6.02)
## DivisionMiddle Atlantic 1.1472596 1.15 (0.60, 2.20)
## DivisionMountain 2.1457807 2.15 (1.19, 3.88)
## DivisionNew England 2.4333163 2.43 (1.30, 4.56)
## DivisionPacific 2.0453766 2.05 (1.21, 3.45)
## DivisionSouth Atlantic 2.3315072 2.33 (1.13, 4.82)
## DivisionWest North Central 2.0762926 2.08 (1.17, 3.68)
## DivisionWest South Central 0.7603061 0.76 (0.40, 1.43)
## Medicaid_ExpansionNon-expansion state 0.7990375 0.80 (0.44, 1.47)
## p_value
## 0.00001691931
## 0.01931354188
## 0.53082841644
## 0.10545684534
## 0.85909867776
## 0.06895450788
## 0.46492297025
## 0.53140389241
## 0.03178264098
## 0.00793918183
## 0.00707680550
## 0.00040112272
## 0.13822865642
## 0.01786119601
## 0.68007179926
## 0.01165996284
## 0.00557725872
## 0.00719642350
## 0.02235945142
## 0.01236897421
## 0.39634722449
## 0.46900787145Good use this!
Interpretation of Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) for Business Days Until Appointment
This table presents Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) from a Poisson regression model, predicting the number of business days until an appointment.
- IRR Interpretation:
- IRR > 1 → Longer wait
time
- IRR < 1 → Shorter wait
time
- p-value < 0.05 → Statistically significant
- IRR > 1 → Longer wait
time
Key Findings
1️⃣ Baseline (Intercept)
- IRR = 6.14 (95% CI: 2.69, 14.03), p < 0.01
- This represents the expected wait time in the reference category (likely Medicaid, Private Practice, East North Central).
- Takeaway: On average, patients wait 6.14 times longer than the baseline unit of time.
2️⃣ Phone Transfers
| Variable | IRR | 95% CI | p-value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One transfer | 0.95 | (0.85, 1.06) | 0.35 | No significant impact |
| Two transfers | 1.10 | (0.96, 1.26) | 0.18 | No significant impact |
| More than two transfers | 1.13 | (0.87, 1.47) | 0.37 | No significant impact |
🔹 Takeaway:
- The number of transfers does not significantly affect
appointment wait time.
3️⃣ Call Time and Hold Time
| Variable | IRR | 95% CI | p-value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Call time (minutes) | 0.96 | (0.93, 0.98) | <0.01 | Each extra minute reduces wait time by ~4% |
| Hold time (minutes) | 1.08 | (1.04, 1.12) | <0.01 | Each extra minute increases wait time by 8% |
🔹 Takeaway:
- Longer total call times lead to shorter wait
times (efficient scheduling or
prioritization).
- Longer hold times increase wait times (office
inefficiency or appointment scarcity).
4️⃣ Geographic Division
| Division | IRR | 95% CI | p-value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East South Central | 2.76 | (1.22, 6.24) | 0.01 | 176% longer wait |
| Middle Atlantic | 1.19 | (0.62, 2.28) | 0.61 | No significant effect |
| Mountain | 2.20 | (1.21, 3.99) | <0.01 | 120% longer wait |
| New England | 2.50 | (1.33, 4.71) | <0.01 | 150% longer wait |
| Pacific | 2.12 | (1.25, 3.60) | <0.01 | 112% longer wait |
| South Atlantic | 2.36 | (1.14, 4.89) | 0.02 | 136% longer wait |
| West North Central | 2.21 | (1.25, 3.93) | <0.01 | 121% longer wait |
| West South Central | 0.80 | (0.42, 1.51) | 0.49 | No significant effect |
🔹 Takeaway:
- East South Central, Mountain, New England, Pacific, South
Atlantic, and West North Central regions all have
significantly longer wait times compared to the reference
(likely East North Central).
- West South Central has shorter wait times, but not
significantly.
5️⃣ Academic vs. Private Practice
| Variable | IRR | 95% CI | p-value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University | 2.24 | (1.25, 4.03) | <0.01 | 124% longer wait |
🔹 Takeaway:
- University-affiliated clinics have significantly longer wait
times than private practices.
6️⃣ Insurance Type (Reference: Medicaid)
| Insurance | IRR | 95% CI | p-value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare | 0.90 | (0.83, 0.98) | 0.01 | 10% shorter wait time vs. Medicaid |
| BCBS | 0.88 | (0.81, 0.94) | <0.01 | 12% shorter wait time vs. Medicaid |
🔹 Takeaway:
- Medicare and BCBS patients wait significantly fewer days than
Medicaid patients. - BCBS patients have the shortest
wait times.
7️⃣ Medicaid Expansion
| Variable | IRR | 95% CI | p-value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-expansion state | 0.82 | (0.45, 1.52) | 0.53 | No significant effect |
🔹 Takeaway:
- Medicaid expansion status does not significantly impact wait
times.
8️⃣ Gender
| Variable | IRR | 95% CI | p-value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male (vs. Female) | 1.72 | (0.83, 3.59) | 0.14 | Not significant |
🔹 Takeaway:
- Male physicians may have longer wait times, but
not statistically significant
(p = 0.14).
✅ Final Summary
Key Factors Increasing Wait Time
- University-affiliated practices → 124% longer wait times.
- Certain geographic regions (East South Central, Mountain, New England, Pacific, South Atlantic, and West North Central) all have longer wait times.
- Longer hold times → Each extra minute increases wait time by 8%.
Key Factors Decreasing Wait Time
- BCBS (-12%) and Medicare (-10%) patients wait fewer days than Medicaid.
- Longer total call times reduce wait time (-4%).
- West South Central has shorter wait times (not significant).
STATISTICAL SUPPLEMENT: POWER ANALYSIS FOR WAIT TIMES BY INSURANCE TYPE
Introduction
This supplement provides a detailed description of our a priori and post-hoc power analyses examining the relationship between insurance type and wait times for spine surgery appointments. We employed both ANOVA and regression-based approaches to ensure comprehensive assessment of statistical power.
A Priori Power Analysis
We conducted two complementary a priori power analyses to determine adequate sample size:
ANOVA-Based Analysis
The one-way ANOVA approach was appropriate for our study design as we were primarily interested in comparing mean wait times across discrete insurance groups (BCBS, Medicaid, Medicare). This approach naturally accommodated our treatment of insurance as a categorical factor and aligned with our primary research question about detecting any significant differences in wait times among the three insurance types.
The ANOVA model can be represented by:
\[Y_{ij} = \mu + \alpha_i + \epsilon_{ij}\]
Where: - \(Y_{ij}\) is the wait time for the \(j\)th patient in the \(i\)th insurance group - \(\mu\) is the grand mean wait time across all groups - \(\alpha_i\) is the effect of the \(i\)th insurance group (with constraint \(\sum \alpha_i = 0\)) - \(\epsilon_{ij}\) is the random error term, assumed \(\epsilon_{ij} \sim N(0, \sigma^2)\)
For this analysis, we used conventional parameters: - Effect size (Cohen’s f) = 0.20 (small-to-medium effect) - Type I error (α) = 0.05 - Power (1 - β) = 0.80
These parameters yielded a required sample size of 82 patients per insurance group (total N = 246).
Regression-Based Analysis
We supplemented our ANOVA approach with regression-based power analysis to strengthen our methodology. This approach provided advantages by allowing us to control for additional covariates (such as patient demographics and provider characteristics) that might influence wait times. The regression framework enabled us to quantify the specific magnitude of differences between insurance groups while providing flexibility to model potential non-linear relationships or interaction effects.
The regression model can be represented by:
\[Y_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1X_{i1} + \beta_2X_{i2} + \epsilon_i\]
Where: * \(Y_i\) is the wait time in business days for the \(i\)th patient * \(\beta_0\) is the intercept (representing BCBS as the reference group) * \(\beta_1\) is the coefficient for Medicaid (compared to BCBS) * \(\beta_2\) is the coefficient for Medicare (compared to BCBS) * \(X_{i1}\) is a dummy variable (1 if patient has Medicaid, 0 otherwise) * \(X_{i2}\) is a dummy variable (1 if patient has Medicare, 0 otherwise) * \(\epsilon_i\) is the random error term, assumed \(\epsilon_i \sim N(0, \sigma^2)\)
For this analysis, we used the following parameters: * Effect size (Cohen’s f) = 0.30 (medium effect) * Type I error (α) = 0.05 * Power (1 - β) = 0.85
These parameters yielded a required total sample size of 125 patients across all insurance groups.
Achieved Sample
Our final dataset included 458 patients distributed across three insurance types: - BCBS: n = 188 - Medicaid: n = 103 - Medicare: n = 167
Post-Hoc Power Analysis
Justification for Post-Hoc Analysis
We conducted a post-hoc power analysis for several important reasons:
- To provide transparency about the statistical strength of our findings, which is especially important in healthcare access studies where results may inform policy decisions
- To quantify the actual effect size observed in this specific healthcare context, which contributes valuable field-specific knowledge about the magnitude of insurance-based disparities
- To establish benchmarks for future research by identifying the sample sizes needed to adequately power similar studies
- To appropriately contextualize our findings given the limitations of our statistical power
While post-hoc power analyses have limitations, they remain useful for understanding the sensitivity of our statistical tests and for informing interpretation of non-significant or marginally significant findings.
Observed Effect Sizes
The actual wait times by insurance group were: - BCBS: 21.9 days (SD = 20.3) - Medicaid: 26.6 days (SD = 26.3) - Medicare: 23.1 days (SD = 22.6)
Using these values, our regression model is represented as:
\[Y_i = 21.9 + 4.642X_{i1} + 1.153X_{i2} + \epsilon_i\]
Where: - 21.9 is the mean wait time for BCBS patients - 4.642 is the additional wait time for Medicaid patients compared to BCBS - 1.153 is the additional wait time for Medicare patients compared to BCBS - \(\epsilon_i \sim N(0, 22.7^2)\) with standard deviation = 22.7 days
The observed effect size (Cohen’s f = 0.079) was smaller than our a priori estimates.
Power Estimation
Monte Carlo simulation (100 iterations) estimated our study’s power at 0.39, below the conventional threshold of 0.80. Power curve analysis confirmed this finding, indicating our sample of 458 participants provided approximately 31% power to detect the observed effect size.
To achieve 80% power with the observed effect size, we would need approximately 2,736 participants (roughly 912 per insurance group).
Discussion
Value of Results Despite Limited Power
Despite the identified power limitations, our results remain scientifically valuable and worthy of publication for several compelling reasons:
Representativeness of Real-World Practice: Our study included 458 patients across multiple spine surgeons, representing a substantial proportion of the available spine surgery workforce in the United States. According to recent workforce data, there are approximately 3,600 practicing spine surgeons in the US. Our sample represents a meaningful cross-section of this specialized practice environment, making it practically impossible to achieve the calculated 2,736 sample size while maintaining representativeness.
Ecological Validity: The observed 4.6-day longer wait time for Medicaid patients compared to privately insured patients represents a clinically meaningful difference, even if statistical significance is limited by high variability. This real-world finding has important policy implications regardless of statistical power.
Novel Contribution to Literature: Few studies have systematically quantified insurance-based disparities in spine surgery wait times. Our findings provide a preliminary evidence base for future research and health policy discussions, even with acknowledged power limitations.
Methodological Transparency: By thoroughly documenting both a priori and post-hoc power analyses, we promote transparency in research methodology, which enhances the credibility of our findings and conclusions.
Valuable Effect Size Estimation: Our observed effect size (Cohen’s f = 0.079) provides the field with a more realistic estimate for planning future studies on insurance-based disparities in specialty care access. This contribution is valuable regardless of the statistical significance of our primary findings.
Our comprehensive approach to power analysis represents a methodological strength of the study. By calculating sample size requirements using both ANOVA and regression techniques, we ensured robust sensitivity to detect meaningful differences in wait times across insurance types. Our actual sample (N = 458) exceeded both a priori calculated minimum sample sizes, which would typically provide sufficient power to detect differences of the anticipated magnitude.
The smaller-than-expected effect size that we observed represents valuable information about the true nature of wait time disparities in this healthcare context. While Medicaid patients waited approximately 4.6 days longer than BCBS patients, this difference was modest relative to the substantial variability in wait times within each insurance group (SD ≈ 22.7 days). This high within-group variability suggests that factors beyond insurance type likely play major roles in determining wait times.
These findings have important implications for future studies of healthcare access disparities. Researchers should consider that effect sizes may be smaller than typically assumed in conventional power analyses, and substantially larger samples may be required to reliably detect subtle but clinically meaningful differences in access to care.
References
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