2025-03-05
The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States(The Fed) has been entrusted by Congress with two mandates to regulate the country’s economy. This dual mandate requires the Fed to control inflation and keep unemployment low. Since the Fed controls the Federal Funds Rate (the key interest rate it uses to influence other interest rates), it can influence when companies find it advantageous to take on debt and expand, leading to increased employment opportunities and a lower unemployment rate.
At first glance, low unemployment means more people are participating in the economy, which often drives up consumer prices, contributing to inflation. The Phillips Curve analyzes this relationship, describing it as an inverse correlation—when unemployment rises, inflation tends to decrease, and vice versa.
The Data is composed of three time series :
Unemployment Rate as a percentage of total unemployed and looking for work from the workforce,
Consumer Price Index Urban
The FED Funds Rate (FRED) (Federal Reserve Board)
The Federal Reserve reacts to conditions in the economies to provide guidance and issue policies in order to pursue its dual mandate from congress.
The second is to control inflation, this does not mean stop inflation but to regulate it maintain it a expected rate usually between 1 and 2 %.
Since 2020 the urban consumer price index has increased by ~ 80 points
From 2000- 2020 the index increased by ~ 90 points
As these conditions change the Federal Reserve makes changes to its policies and guidance.
Dovish
Hawkish
Economic Data
https://data.bls.gov/toppicks?survey=bls
Federal Reserve Data
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
By Darwhin Gomez, For the full data and code files please check out the repository below.