Formula yang akan digunakan: \[ n|q_x = q_x + (1 - q_x) q_{x+1} + (1 - q_x)(1 - q_{x+1}) q_{x+2} + \dots + (1 - q_x)(1 - q_{x+1}) \dots (1 - q_{x+n-1}) q_{x+n} \]
Untuk menyelesaikan kasus di atas maka kita akan mencari \[2|q_{x+2} = q_{x+1} + (1-q_{x+1})q_{x+2}\]
# Diketahui
q_x1 <- 0.095 # 1|q_{x+1}
q_x2 <- 0.171 # 2|q_{x+1}
# Menghitung q_{x+2}
q_x2 <- (q_x2 - q_x1) / (1 - q_x1)
# Menghitung q_{x+1} + q_{x+2}
result <- q_x1 + q_x2
# Hasil
cat("q_{x+1} + q_{x+2} =", result, "\n")
## q_{x+1} + q_{x+2} = 0.1789779
Formula yang akan digunakan:
formula_1:
\[f_x(x) = \frac{d}{dx} F_x(x) = \frac{d}{dx}(1-s(x)) = -s'(x)\]
formula_2: \[\mu(x)= \frac{-s'(x)}{s(x)}\]
formula_3: \[F_x(x)=\int_{0}^{x}f_x(y)\,dy\]
Sub nomor (i)
# import library
library(pracma)
## Warning: package 'pracma' was built under R version 4.4.3
# Fungsi survival s(x)
s_x <- function(x) { -cos(x) }
# PDF f_X(x) = -s'(x)
f_x <- function(x) { -sin(x) }
# Laju kematian mu(x)
mu_x <- function(x) { tan(x) }
# CDF F_X(x)
F_x <- function(x) { cos(x) - 1 }
# Evaluasi di beberapa nilai berbeda
x_values <- seq(0, pi, length.out = 5) # Sample points from 0 to π
# Dataframe (yang isinya hasil evaluasi nilai)
results <- data.frame(
x = x_values,
s_x = s_x(x_values),
f_x = f_x(x_values),
mu_x = mu_x(x_values),
F_x = F_x(x_values)
)
knitr::kable(results, caption = "Hasil untuk f_x(x), F_x(x), dan μ(x)")
| x | s_x | f_x | mu_x | F_x |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0000000 | -1.0000000 | 0.0000000 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.0000000 |
| 0.7853982 | -0.7071068 | -0.7071068 | 1.000000e+00 | -0.2928932 |
| 1.5707963 | 0.0000000 | -1.0000000 | 1.633124e+16 | -1.0000000 |
| 2.3561945 | 0.7071068 | -0.7071068 | -1.000000e+00 | -1.7071068 |
| 3.1415927 | 1.0000000 | 0.0000000 | 0.000000e+00 | -2.0000000 |
Sub nomor (ii)
# import library
library(pracma)
# Fungsi survival s(x)
s_x <- function(x) { exp(-x) }
# PDF f_X(x) = -s'(x)
f_x <- function(x) { exp(-x) }
# Laju kematian mu(x)
mu_x <- function(x) { 1 }
# CDF F_X(x)
F_x <- function(x) { 1 - exp(-x) }
# Evaluasi di beberapa nilai berbeda
x_values <- seq(0, 5, length.out = 5) # Sample points from 0 to 5
# Dataframe (yang isinya hasil evaluasi nilai)
results <- data.frame(
x = x_values,
s_x = s_x(x_values),
f_x = f_x(x_values),
mu_x = mu_x(x_values),
F_x = F_x(x_values)
)
knitr::kable(results, caption = "Hasil untuk f_x(x), F_x(x), dan μ(x)")
| x | s_x | f_x | mu_x | F_x |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 1.0000000 | 1.0000000 | 1 | 0.0000000 |
| 1.25 | 0.2865048 | 0.2865048 | 1 | 0.7134952 |
| 2.50 | 0.0820850 | 0.0820850 | 1 | 0.9179150 |
| 3.75 | 0.0235177 | 0.0235177 | 1 | 0.9764823 |
| 5.00 | 0.0067379 | 0.0067379 | 1 | 0.9932621 |
Sub nomor (iii)
# import library
library(pracma)
# Fungsi survival s(x)
s_x <- function(x) { 1 / (1 + x) }
# PDF f_X(x) = -s'(x)
f_x <- function(x) { 1 / (1 + x)^2 }
# Laju kematian mu(x)
mu_x <- function(x) { 1 / (1 + x) }
# CDF F_X(x)
F_x <- function(x) { 1 - (1 / (1 + x)) }
# Evaluasi di beberapa nilai berbeda
x_values <- seq(0, 5, length.out = 5) # Sample points from 0 to 5
# Dataframe (yang isinya hasil evaluasi nilai)
results <- data.frame(
x = x_values,
s_x = s_x(x_values),
f_x = f_x(x_values),
mu_x = mu_x(x_values),
F_x = F_x(x_values)
)
knitr::kable(results, caption = "Hasil untuk f_x(x), F_x(x), dan μ(x)")
| x | s_x | f_x | mu_x | F_x |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 1.0000000 | 1.0000000 | 1.0000000 | 0.0000000 |
| 1.25 | 0.4444444 | 0.1975309 | 0.4444444 | 0.5555556 |
| 2.50 | 0.2857143 | 0.0816327 | 0.2857143 | 0.7142857 |
| 3.75 | 0.2105263 | 0.0443213 | 0.2105263 | 0.7894737 |
| 5.00 | 0.1666667 | 0.0277778 | 0.1666667 | 0.8333333 |
Formula yang akan kita gunakan adalah:
formula_1: \[ {}_t p_x = e^{-\int_0^t \mu(x+y) \, dy} \]
formula_2: \[ {}_t q_x = 1 - {}_t p_x \]
formula_3: \[ {}_s|_t q_x = {}_s p_x \cdot {}_t q_{x+s} \]
# library
library(pracma)
library(knitr)
# Fungsi laju kematian mu(x), dibuat vektorized
mu_x <- Vectorize(function(x) { 0.01 }) # Laju kematian tetap
# Fungsi probabilitas bertahan p_x
p_x <- function(x, t) {
exp(-integral(mu_x, x, x + t))
}
# Fungsi probabilitas kematian q_x
q_x <- function(x, t) {
1 - p_x(x, t)
}
# Menghitung probabilitas kematian tertunda 2|2q20
q_2_2_20 <- p_x(20, 2) * q_x(22, 2)
# Menampilkan hasil dalam tabel
result <- data.frame(
`4p20` = p_x(20, 2),
`2q22` = q_x(22, 2),
`2|2q20` = q_2_2_20
)
kable(result, caption = "Hasil perhitungan untuk 2|2q20")
| X4p20 | X2q22 | X2.2q20 |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9801987 | 0.0198013 | 0.0194092 |
Untuk menyelesaikan persoalan ini kita akan menggunakan formula sebagai berikut:
\[ \overset{\circ}{e}_{x:t} = t - \frac{t (q_x + q_{x+t})}{2 (1 - t q_x)} \]
formula di atas adalah formula yang berdasarkan pada pendekatan fractional expected future lifetime dengan interpolasi linear, dan asumsi bahwa kematian berdistribusi seragam (uniform)
# Diketahui
t <- 1.5 # Interval waktu
q_x <- 0.020 # Nilai q_x
q_x_t <- 0.022 # Nilai q_{x+t}
# Hitung fractional expected future lifetime
e_x_t <- t - (t * (q_x + q_x_t)) / (2 * (1 - t * q_x))
# Tampilkan hasil
cat("Nilai e_x_t adalah", round(e_x_t, 4), "\n")
## Nilai e_x_t adalah 1.4675