The Road to 270: Democratic Campaigning Strategy for the 2024 US General Election
April 23, 2024
INTRODUCTION
The Democratic Presidential campaign must establish their strategy to secure electoral victory.
Previous research shows that voter turnout shapes election outcomes. When voter turnout is high, it often indicates a high level of engagement and enthusiasm among the electorate, which can lead to more representative results. Conversely, low voter turnout can skew outcomes, as it may reflect apathy, disenchantment, or barriers to participation among certain demographics. Elections with low turnout rates risk being decided by a smaller, potentially less diverse subset of the population, which can distort the democratic process. Furthermore, variations in voter turnout across different regions or demographic groups can significantly impact the final results, influencing everything from the composition of legislative bodies to the outcome of specific ballot measures or initiatives. Therefore, understanding and addressing factors that affect voter turnout is essential for ensuring fair and representative democratic elections.
By analyzing voting patterns from the previous four National election cycles (2016-2022), the Democratic Presidential campaign can obtain valuable insight on key voter demographics, including voter turnout and preferences, which can help information strategic decisions regarding messaging, campaign outreach, and policy priorities to effectively engage and mobilize supporters in the upcoming election.
Following the primary elections earlier this year, we are now certain that the 2024 Presidential Election will be a Biden-Trump rematch. While the political environment has changed since their previous face-off in 2020, we can gain valuable insight on general trends in among voter demographics. In a time of immense polarization where both candidates are are well-established incumbents, the Democratic campaign can not rely on vote flipping. Therefore, with the U.S. General Election only about six months year away, Democrats need to consolidate a strong voting base that will turn out to on election day if they want to ensure a win.
METHODOLOGY
Following each election, the Pew Research Center surveys U.S. adults online to study trends in voter turnout and choices. Using this survey data, I am analyzing subsets of voters with low voter turnout for general trends that may be expected to continue in 2024.
Variables in my (cleaned) dataset include:
| Variable | Description |
|---|---|
| Type of Voter | Categorical groups of surveyed voters, by key characteristics |
| Year | The year of the election |
| Type of Election | The type of the election, either House of Reps or Presidential |
| D Vote | Percentage of vote received by Democratic Party |
| D Voter Share | Percentage of all Democratic Party votes from Type of Voter |
| D-R Margin | Difference between Democratic and Republican Party votes |
| Total Nonvoter Share | Percentage of all nonvoters from Type of Voter |
| R Vote | Percentage of vote received by Republican Party |
| R Voter Share | Percentage of all Republican Party votes from Type of Voter |
| Total Nonvoter Share | Percentage of all voters from Type of Voter |
The Pew Research Center’s most recent report using this data can be found at www.pewresearch.org
I originally accessed the survey data on March 21, 2024.
TRENDS IN VOTER TURNOUT
As shown in the chart below, voter turnout disparities persist across racial, educational, and gender lines. While there is some variation from election to election, these trends have remained remarkably consistent over the past four election cycles. This indicates that voter turnout is not random but rather influenced by structural and demographic factors.
Recognizing these demographic trends, the Democratic campaign has a strategic opportunity to strengthen its voter base by targeting and mobilizing nonvoters. The data highlights that young and less-educated individuals consistently make up the largest share of nonvoters, particularly among women. Since these patterns have remained stable over multiple election cycles, campaigns must address the systemic barriers that prevent these groups from voting, such as lack of access to resources, political disengagement, and economic instability.
As identified in an article by PBS News, several factors contribute to low voter turnout, including restrictive voting laws, lack of competitive elections, voter disillusionment, and logistical challenges. No single cause fully explaining the trend. However, to address these challenges and close the participation gap, campaigns can implement voter education efforts, grassroots organizing, and digital outreach strategies tailored to the demographics most heavily impacted. Addressing these obstacles could significantly increase turnout without necessarily needing to convert opposition voters.
If the Democratic campaign successfully engages nonvoters in 2024, it could expand its electoral advantage by broadening its base. Understanding what motivates these groups to vote—whether through policy concerns, community-driven activism, or outreach from trusted sources—will be critical. Specifically, this chart identifies young and low-educated individuals as the two largest shares of nonvoters, especially within the female population. How do these groups vote when they do turn out?
TRENDS IN LOW-EDUCATED VOTER PREFERENCES
Voters with some college education or less have consistently represented the largest subgroup of nonvoters over the past four election cycles. However, voter turnout among this group increased in 2022 increased, suggesting that engagement efforts may be beginning to have an effect. These demographic shifts point to a key opportunity for campaigns to target and mobilize nonvoters, especially those with lower levels of education, as a way to expand their base and increase turnout.
The stacked bar chart above illustrates voting patterns among individuals with a high school education or less and those with some college education. The data shows that while these voters, particularly those with a high school education or less, predominantly support the Republican Party, the margin remains competitive across each election cycle. Although the Republican Party has gained ground among low-educated voters, the trend is not overwhelmingly one-sided. The Democratic Party still holds a substantial share of support, though turnout from this group remains an issue.
Given that the Democratic Party traditionally receives more support from low-educated voters, especially those with high school education or less, the lack of turnout among these voters could explain the Republican Party’s increasing dominance in this group. To address this, campaigns should focus on engaging these voters by targeting the root causes of political disengagement, such as economic instability, limited access to resources, and political disillusionment. By enhancing voter education efforts and increasing outreach to this demographic, the Democrats could shift the trend in their favor in future elections.
TRENDS IN YOUNG VOTER PREFERENCES
Young voters, the second largest subgroup of nonvoters, are a key demographic that overwhelmingly supports the Democratic Party. As the next Presidential Election will be a rematch of 2020, it’s insightful to examine the voting patterns of this age group in the previous election. The bar chart below displays the voter shares each candidate received from young voters aged 18-49 in 2020, offering a glimpse into the Democratic advantage among this group.
The chart highlights that, collectively, Democrats received majority support from all age groups between 18 and 49. However, the most significant support came from the youngest voters—those likely voting in their first Presidential election, aged 18-24. This group overwhelmingly backed Joe Biden, reflecting a strong preference for Democratic candidates.
To build on this momentum and continue securing the support of young voters, the Democratic Party can invest in targeted outreach programs, develop tailored messaging that resonates with their values, and further engage in community organizing initiatives. By maintaining and expanding this base of support, the Democrats can boost voter participation, grow their voter base, and potentially gain a decisive advantage come election day.
CONCLUSION
Across the last four election cycles, patterns reveal that turnout is not random; rather, it correlates closely with identifiable demographic factors. With the 2024 General Election quickly approaching, the imperative for Democrats is clear: to secure victory, they must consolidate a formidable voter base characterized by robust turnout. This necessitates a strategic approach that identifies and engages eligible voters within their base who have historically exhibited lower levels of electoral participation, such as young voters. By deploying targeted campaign tactics aimed at motivating these segments of the electorate, the Democratic campaign can bolster its presence at the polls on Election Day. Additionally, by prioritizing outreach to previously marginalized constituents, such as low-educated voters, can help neutralize Republican advantages and potentially shift the balance in the Democrats’ favor. Through these concerted efforts, Democrats can not only strengthen their electoral prospects but also uphold the foundational principles of representative democracy.