Uncovering language markers of (classes of) psychological mechanisms underyling decisions under risk and uncertainty
The preliminary preliminary findings FoKo 3
03.03.2025
Natural language as data?
Natural language as data?
Experimental Setup
Natural language as data?
Experimental Setup
over to: and how this all worked in practice and what came out of it is what I am going to talk about in the remaining 15 minutes
Overview
Four conditions:
Choice attributes (Baseline Condition)
Social norms (Social Influence)
Knowledge (Experience and Knowledge)
Need (Goals and Motivation)
Highlights and learnings (1)
my husband forgot, prolific did not :D
Population description
177
137
4
1
0
50
100
150
200
female
male
other
none
Gender
count
Gender distribution
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
Mean: 44.4
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
20
40
60
Age
Density
Age distribution
26
52
69
101
28
19
13
11
0
30
60
90
less10
10to20
20to30
30to50
50to70
70to100
more100
noresponse
Income range
Count
Income range distribution
20
8
196
46
18
30
1
0
50
100
150
200
none
student
salaried
self
homemaker
em_other
noresponse
Employment status
Count
Employment status distribution
48
50
130
69
16
2
4
0
50
100
mandatory
VET
bachelors
masters
doctor
ed_other
noresponse
Education
Count
Education distribution
Methods
Random Forest Classi... Definitions Examples Definitions and Exam... Retrieval of most similar example from dictionary of definitions
Retrieval of most si... Retrieval of top 5 most similar examples from dictionary of definitions + probability based on ranking
Retrieval of top 5 most si... Combination of promising methods?
Combination of promising methods? all examples divergent examples SBERT GPT-4.0 (API) Deepseek R1:8b (loc... top shot classificationprobabilistic classification
top shot classification... all vs. all 1 vs. 1 1 vs. all "sampleverse" "methodverse" no preprocessing preprocessing normalizing removal of most common words
removal of most comm... Classification by features
Classification by fe... SBERT Classification by dictionary
Classification by di... Classification by generation
Classification by ge... Text is not SVG - cannot display
Inference
Accuracy
\[
\text{Accuracy} = \frac{TP + TN}{TP + TN + FP + FN}
\]
AUC-ROC
\[
\text{AUC} = \int_{0}^{1} \text{TPR}(t) \, d\text{FPR}(t)
\]
Manipulation effectiveness
Effectiveness of Classification
Questions!
Methods
What sample is considered “divergent”?
Missing method- or sample-configurations?
Model choice?
Prompting: Improvement without overfitting?
Structure and reporting
Structure: Width vs. depth?
Configurations that don’t influence results?
Other comments?
Manipulation effectiveness for different conditions
Social norms
Knowledge
### Need
Expanding Graphs on Effectiveness of classification
Baseline condition
Knowledge
Social norms
Need