The Sustainable Mobility

Analysis of Electric Vehicle Market in Germany

1 Introduction

We have witnessed a multitude of technological leaps over the decade, which has initiated a demand for the automotive industry to be at par, being driven by environmental concerns & changing consumer preferences. Electric Vehicles (EVs) have rapidly emerged as the pivotal sector worldwide. In this light, the leading EV market in Europe- Germany, stands out as a dominant and significant player, casting a dynamic and evolving market for electric vehicles. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of one of the prominent sectors of Germany’s leading green economy & compare it to that of the world leader in this market.

The clock set by the United Nations SDGs (Sutainability Development Goals) has included almost all of the world to be a part of this electric mobility, where it is witnessed that countries like China and the United States are taking the lead above Germany. Studies have shown that China not only leads in total EV sales but also in the rapid expansion of charging infrastructure and government incentives (Wang & Kimble, 2020). Therefore, with this paper, we will also go through the comparison of Germany with China and see in the balanced structure what the actual comparison holds for the economy. (International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023)

Finally, the paper will work as a magnifier to break down the different aspects of Germany’s EV market from Revenue contribution to state-wise ownership. This evaluation of the EV market in Germany is aimed at framing both national and international trends encompassing the market share and GDP contribution. Hence, with this analysis, we can further assess the future of the electric automobile industry in Germany and whether the reports and figures would be more impactful or not.

2 A Global Overview

The global electric vehicle (EV) market grew significantly between 2016 and 2023 due to the growing global commitment to sustainable transportation. During this time, there have been significant advances in technology, government incentives and growing consumer demand for environmentally friendly mobility solutions.

With the help of Figure 1 below, we are attempting to set an illustration of this growth in the top 6 countries worldwide, showing the turnover of EVs in millions of Euros. When we look at the historical time data, it is very evident that China is the dominant player in the global electric vehicle market, which is growing from 16,980 million euros in 2016 to 268,400 million euros in 2023.

In Europe, Germany predominantly led the growth of EVs, which grew from 1,375 million euros in 2016 to 48,510 million euros in 2023; swiftly emerging as number 3 in the worldwide market. The observations based on the data show China’s rigorous attempts have led it to yield high turnover but it is not sufficient to complete our comparitive analysis which will be covered further in this paper.

Additionally, to broaden the scope of our understanding of the world wide growth of Electric Vehicles, Table 1 gives the revenue of other 15 countries across the world, all of them showing a positive growth in Revenue between 2016 to 2023. (Statista, 2024)
Table 1: EV Revenue in million EUR (€) of other countries
Countries 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Norway 3000.00 4044.00 4349.0 4780.0 6196.0 8411.0 9193 9221
South Korea 313.90 720.90 1580.0 1701.0 2478.0 5248.0 8580 8430
Italy 163.70 272.00 520.5 930.9 3173.0 6990.0 6880 6887
Canada 600.80 1029.00 2200.0 2708.0 2411.0 4289.0 6307 6551
Belgium 602.90 925.80 805.9 1087.0 2956.0 4175.0 6481 6496
Netherlands 1430.00 530.80 1468.0 3778.0 4909.0 5040.0 6366 6477
Japan 1537.00 3919.00 3411.0 2901.0 2017.0 2670.0 6437 6302
Spain 198.10 384.10 582.5 915.4 2182.0 3433.0 4509 4531
Denmark 79.79 55.96 293.4 574.3 2042.0 3999.0 3774 3829
Switzerland 298.70 440.40 483.5 899.1 1770.0 2673.0 3203 3283
Austria 271.30 385.20 451.0 638.0 1268.0 2451.0 2675 2751
Australia 99.05 155.00 250.2 560.8 375.8 1168.0 2474 2614
Israel 0.00 16.23 199.6 207.1 338.8 924.6 1937 1902
Portugal 105.80 231.30 421.3 674.3 1042.0 1434.0 1849 1883
Finland 85.86 178.30 319.4 457.4 990.5 1626.0 1806 1835

3 Comparison of China’s EV Market V/s Germany’s EV Market

3.1 Sales Trend

Figure 1 illustrates how China has dominated electric car production over the years. China’s electric car industry is characterized by strong sales and significant turnover, testifying to its dominance. In the global market, China’s electric vehicle industry leads in terms of huge volume, as shown in Figure 1. China’s electric vehicle industry has generated much more revenue than other countries. This economic dominance is complemented by the data in Figure 2, which highlights China’s superior sales volumes. The large number of electric cars sold in China illustrates China’s dominant position in the industry. (Colin McKerracher, 2023).

3.2 Infrastructure Development

Germany and China both have been focused since the beginning to develop a big EV market, however, when we view it precisely, Germany’s policies are comparatively less aggressive than China’s, which is depicted in the sales and revenue numbers in Figures 1 & 2. China’s urban planning and smart city projects link EV infrastructure development with broader urban development strategies. (Xinhua, 2022) This approach optimizes the use of electric vehicles in cities and effectively responds to congestion and pollution problems. China has rapidly expanded its network of electric car charging stations as it addresses distance anxiety and facilitates convenient urban and rural access for electric car owners. The expansion is supported by significant government investment, including incentives for public and private entities involved in the development of charging infrastructure. Figure 3 helps us scale the differences in infrastructure policies by comparing the number of charging stations built between 2016 and 2023..

Figure 3 shows charging infrastructure trends between China and Germany, with China clearly showing more aggressive charging station investment growth than Germany. For the period 2016-2022, China’s growth path highlights its strategic commitment to support the adoption of electric vehicles through extensive infrastructure development. This proactive approach will not only solve anxiety problems but also facilitate the widespread use of electric vehicles in urban and rural areas. In Germany, on the other hand, there is an upward trend in freight infrastructure, but the scale and pace seem to be more gradual. This difference underlines China’s leading position in the global electric vehicle market thanks to significant government investment and policies aimed at promoting sustainable mobility solutions. The data in Figure 3 highlights the key role of strong charging infrastructure in accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles and underscores China’s dominant position in shaping the future of electric transportation.

3.3 Implied Policies Overview

So far the observations keep hinting towards the role of Government implied policies in China and in Germany. Hence it becomes imperative to have an overview of how over these years, what different did the governments of both countries have done to result in these significant results. Whether it is the need of environmental concerns or motivating the producers by providing incentives or having an aggressive implication to integrate EVs, it is better illustrated by Table 2 below showing the policies application by both countries overtime. (Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (BAFA), 2024)

Table 2: Government Policies and Incentives Timeline: China vs Germany (2015-2023)
Year China Germany
2015 Significant subsidies for EV purchases. Incentives for EV upto €4,000
2016 Incentives for EV manufacturers, NEV(New Energy Vehicle) Credit System Expansion of EV infrastructure
2017 Mandatory EV production quotas Diesel Ban discussions in major cities
2018 Massive investment in charging infrastructure Increased incentives and tax benefits
2019 NEV subsidy phase-out, battery recycling regulations Comprehensive climate package and EV charging law
2020 Extended subsidies, National NEV Development Plan KfW(Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau) funding for private chargers, increased EV subsidies
2021 Promotion of battery swapping, tech innovation grants Extension of Subsidies, corporate fleet quotas
2022 Subsidy adjustments, investment in smart charging Integration of EV in green energy plans, vehicle tax reforms
2023 Stricter emissions standards, increased local support Zero-emission zones, further infrastructure investments

As appeared in Table 2, which compares government arrangements and motivating forces for EVs in both nations from 2015 to 2023, there are a few imperative contrasts in how China and Germany bargain with this issue. Major endowments for China, required generation quantities and broad venture in charging framework; These arrangements highlight the quick improvement towards worldwide authority in electric cars based on solid government sponsorship and sound technique. On the other hand, Germany has been more hesitant almost advertising diesel bans also green vitality systems. Usually since it has taken its time to extend appropriation plans or include to its EV charging systems not at all like China which acted instantly.

By and large, it can be concluded from this table that whereas China’s approach has been exceptionally confident as distant as EV take-up and outflows diminishment endeavors are concerned, Germany has favored caution in see of its administrative complexities and natural concerns. These variations show distinctive national techniques that shape long run course of their particular EV markets.

3.4 Standardizing the Comparison

From the above analysis points we have noticed how China’s EV market is dominant worldwide. But it is eminent to match the scale for comparison to have a better idea. It would not be fair to taking the view points of Sales, Revenue and Investments without considering the population and other factors. Hence, to create a balanced scale of comparison, we have to do per-capita analysis of both the countries to find out whether the projected analysis so far stands or there is a difference in the inference. Table 3 below encapsulates data necessary for the comparison of Revenue per capita of both China and Germany. (Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt)

Table 3: EV Revenue Per Capita Comparison of Germany & China
Year Population (Billion)_Germany Population (Billion)_China Total EV Revenue (Billion EUR)_Germany Total EV Revenue (Billion EUR)_China EV Revenue per Capita (EUR)_Germany EV Revenue per Capita (EUR)_China
2015 0.82 1.37 0.3 5.10 3.66 3.72
2016 0.82 1.38 0.6 8.28 7.32 6.00
2017 0.83 1.39 1.2 13.47 14.46 9.69
2018 0.83 1.39 2.4 20.66 28.92 14.86
2019 0.83 1.40 3.3 22.02 39.76 15.73
2020 0.83 1.40 5.7 23.48 68.67 16.77
2021 0.83 1.41 10.5 83.99 126.51 59.57
2022 0.83 1.41 14.1 113.39 169.88 80.42
2023 0.84 1.41 18.0 118.30 214.29 83.90

Table 3 provides us sufficient data for comparison and we can clearly see that our observation from 3.1-3.3 has completely changed when we normalise the data on a balance. To better visualise it Figure 4 provides us the graphical comparison of the Revenue per capita of both the countries

To summarize,the data in the Table 3 includes annual figures from 2015 to 2023 comparing Germany and China by population, total electric vehicle revenue and electric vehicle revenue per capita. During this period, the turnover of electric vehicles in Germany has increased significantly, and there have been significant changes in percentage, such as 100% growth in 2016 and 2017, and a constant growth of 27.66% in 2023. Also, the income of electric cars per inhabitant increased significantly, and increased e.g. 100% in 2016 and 2018 and 26.14% in 2023.In China, total electric vehicle revenues were higher, but growth was more volatile. Significant jumps, for example, 62.35% in 2016 and a significant 257.71% in 2021. The per capita yield of electric vehicles also grew strongly as depicted in Figure 4, for example, 61.29% in 2016 and 255.22% in 2021, but slowed down until 2023 percent.

4 Germany’s EV Market: A Magnifier Analysis

4.1 Household aquired: Electric v/s Non Electric Vehicle

To begin with the analysis, we will study the household acquisition of electric and non-electric vehicles in terms of sales, as shown in Figure 5. The provided data from 2016 to 2023 illustrates a notable shift in consumer behavior in Germany. Non-electric vehicle sales have steadily declined from 3,300 thousand to 2,400 thousand, while electric vehicle sales have surged from 25 thousand to 672 thousand. This trend reflects the growing preference for electric vehicles, driven by environmental concerns, advancements in EV technology, and supportive government policies. Figure 5 highlights this significant transformation in Germany’s automotive market. (Loisel et al., 2014)

In Figure 5, we look at the development of German vehicles from 2016 to 2020, divided into non-electric vehicles (NEV) and electric vehicles (EV). The data shows significant growth in electric vehicles, which have surpassed EVs in recent years. In particular, sales of electric cars have shown steady growth, reflecting increasing adoption and government incentives to reduce carbon emissions. While NEV sales remained stable, they did not show comparable growth. This trend underscores the consumer shift toward sustainable transportation options and regulatory action to promote cleaner energy sources in the automotive industry.

Looking at Figure 6, which looks at the share of EVs and electric cars in Germany in 2023, we expect the market share of electric cars to continue to grow. This change is due to technological advances, expansion of charging infrastructure and changing consumer preferences for environmentally friendly vehicles. Policymakers and industry stakeholders will likely continue to focus on encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles to achieve broader sustainability goals and reduce reliance on fossil fuels for transportation.

4.2 PHEVs v/s BEVs: State Wise Share

The electric vehicle market in Germany has been largely driven by the adoption of BEVs and PHEV. Why is this so? All-electric battery-powered BEVs and PHEVs, which combine a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) with electric drive, are an integral part of the country’s carbon reduction strategy and transition to sustainable transport.(Hecht et al., 2022) Table 4 below shows (as of 01 January 2022), use of BEV and PHEV cars by state in Germany. The highest figures were in North Rhine-Westphalia, 131 thousand BEV and 131 thousand PHEV. This is probably due to its position as the most populous state and the center of industrial and economic activity. The states of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg also showed significant adoption rates, reflecting their strong automotive industries and strong economies. In contrast, in smaller states such as Bremen and Saarland, the number of BEVs and PHEVs was lower; 3.05 thousand BEVs and 3.8 thousand PHEVs registered in Bremen. Those differences can come from differences in population density, economic conditions, and the availability of electric vehicle infrastructure.

Table 4: Numbers of BEVs and PHEVs by state as of 1st January 2022.
Federal State PHEVs (thousands) BEVs (thousands) Inhabitants Cars
Saxony-Anhalt 7.39 7.17 2169253 1222087
Saxony 15.50 15.60 4043002 2182655
Rhineland-Palatinate 25.50 29.60 4106485 2602699
Saarland 6.02 6.23 982348 648268
Lower Saxony 49.20 67.50 8027031 4909123
North Rhine-Westphalia 131.00 131.00 17924591 10422671
Hesse 53.50 55.50 6295017 3813653
Mecklenburg-West Pomerania 4.72 5.58 1611160 881398
Bremen 3.80 3.05 676463 299330
Hamburg 14.50 13.10 1853935 813847
Berlin 17.50 16.70 3677472 1241793
Brandenburg 11.20 12.10 2537868 1468651
Baden-Württemberg 99.10 106.00 11124642 6838130
Bavaria 102.00 115.00 13176989 8228614
Schleswig-Holstein 16.00 24.50 2922005 1731189
Thuringia 8.28 8.90 2108863 1194461

As shown in Figure 7a, the role of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) varies considerably across German states, highlighting regional differences in deployment. In North Rhine-Westphalia, approximately 0.73 percent of the population owns a PHEV, reflecting the state’s strong commitment to electric mobility. Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria also have high adoption rates, with approximately 0.89 percent and 0.77 percent of their population owning PHEVs. These economically strong and industrialized countries are pioneers in reducing emissions and promoting sustainable transport. (Massiani, 2015)

In contrast, states such as Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Bremen have lower PHEV ownership, with around 0.29% and 0.56% of their population owning a PHEV. That difference may be due to differences in economic capacity, population density and availability of charging infrastructure, which are crucial factors influencing the adoption of PHEVs.Overall, PHEVs play a crucial role in the transition to sustainable transport in Germany. The adoption rates of different states suggest the need for tailored strategies to address regional challenges and exploit local opportunities to promote electric cars. PHEVs complement battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and are important to broader efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the transportation industry.

Figure 7b highlights the central role of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Germany’s journey towards sustainable transport and shows significant regional differences in adoption rates. In North Rhine-Westphalia, approximately 0.73% of the population drive BEVs, which shows a strong commitment to zero-emission vehicles. Similarly, Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria have significant BEV ownership, with approximately 0.95 percent and 0.87 percent of their population owning BEVs. These countries are pioneers in reducing carbon dioxide emissions and adopting ecological transport solutions.

On the other hand, states like Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Bremen have low BEV usage, with only about 0.35% and 0.45% of their population using BEVs. This lower adoption is due to economic factors, population density and the availability of charging infrastructure, which are critical to supporting BEV growth.In general, BEVs are central to Germany’s strategy for cleaner energy and less dependence on fossil fuels. Disparate adoption rates across states suggest the need for tailored strategies to address regional barriers and take advantage of local opportunities to promote electric vehicles. Complementing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), BEVs play a key role in improving energy efficiency and significantly reducing traffic emissions.

In Germany, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are central to promoting sustainable transport, as shown in Figures 7a and 7b. PHEVs dominate in North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria, demonstrating the strategic adoption of hybrid technology in emission reduction strategies. The state of Lower Saxony and Hesse also has significant PHEV ownership, reflecting a balanced transition to cleaner energy solutions.

On the other hand, BEVs are widely used in North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria, which underlines the strong commitment to zero-emission vehicles and important efforts to reduce the carbon footprint. These differences highlight the importance of tailored strategies that take into account local economic conditions, infrastructure availability and population density.Overall, PHEVs and BEVs are an integral part of improving energy efficiency and significantly reducing emissions, which is in line with Germany’s overall goal of sustainable mobility.

4.2.1 Pricing Sensitivity and Consumer Behvaiour

Studies consistently show that government incentives, such as purchase subsidies and tax credits, significantly support the use of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in Germany. These incentives effectively reduce upfront costs, increase affordability and increase consumer interest. Research shows that consumers’ price sensitivities to electric cars vary, with higher initial costs often offset by long-term fuel and maintenance savings. This balance between incentives and savings plays a key role in shaping consumer behavior and accelerating the transition to electronic mobility. (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, 2023)

The observation in Figure 8 shows several key trends in the German battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) market from 2016 to 2023. These include:

Price trends: Both BEV and PHEV vary along the time and may be affected by factors such as technological advances, subsidies and market competition.

Sales Growth: Sales volumes for both vehicles increased significantly, especially in the million sales counters. This suggests that consumers are accepting and using electric cars in Germany.

Market Dynamics: Differences in sales patterns for BEVs and PHEVs may reflect changing consumer preferences, regulatory changes and developments in vehicle technology. Overall, the chart highlights a dynamic market landscape where EV pricing strategies and consumer demand are evolving, driving a broader shift towards sustainable mobility solutions.

5 GDP Analysis

As part of our final segment, we will now explore the last and most important part of the multifaceted impact of EV, which is the contribution towards GDP. Hollistically, EVs contribute directly to exports, employement generation, environmental protection and infrastructure investment. Although the precise data of these factors is not easily available, this paper includes the Infrastructure Contribution and GDP per capita of EV from 2015-2023 showen in Figure 8.

Figure 8 shows a positive trend in GDP Per capita (Thousand EUR) which was witnessed in similar results in Figure 4 while comparing with China’s per capita. However, the Infrastructure contribution was progressing until 2023 where it showed a negative result. In 2023, Germany’s electric vehicle market underwent significant changes, influenced by a complex mix of policy shifts, consumer behaviours, and economic factors. The year was marked by a transitional phase in the EV sector, reflecting a broader trend towards sustainable mobility amidst evolving market conditions and governmental policies.

Impact of Subsidy Phase-Out: The phase-out of subsidies for electric cars, especially the complete removal of business subsidies for EV purchases as of September 1, 2023, led to a significant reduction in plug-in vehicle registrations. This reduction was observed in September 2023, with a 35% decrease in all plug-in registrations year over year for the month.

Consumer Response to Subsidy Changes: German customers, aware of the changes in subsidy policies, planned their buying accordingly. There was a surge in sales in August ahead of the subsidy cut-off, and a similar trend was expected before further reductions in January 2024. The approach of consumers to maximize the resale value of EVs through subsidies also affected the market dynamics.

6 Conclusion

To conclude, this paper lays out the analysis of the Electric Vehicle Market in 3 folds- the Growth in terms of revenue globally, analysing the market dominance of China and finally a mangnifier analysis of Germany’s market. The period 2016-2023 marked an era of change in the global electric vehicle market, driven by technological advances, supportive policies and increasing demand for sustainable transport solutions. Figures 1-3 vividly illustrate this growth and highlight contrasting approaches and results of China and Germany in promoting EV adoption in reducing carbon emissions. China has become a pioneer in the global adoption of electric vehicles, bolstered by significant government subsidies, strict emissions standards and extensive infrastructure investment. Sales of electric vehicles in China increased from 16,980 million euros in 2016 to 268,400 million euros by 2023, reflecting China’s proactive policies to reduce carbon emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. Germany, on the other hand, followed a methodical approach with additional incentives and a regulatory framework aimed at integrating electric vehicles into green energy initiatives. Although, the aggressive strategy of China has ensured a dominance over the Global revenue and sales number but while comparing on the per capita level, Germany has been doing substantially well following it’s strategic maneuver and emphasis on motivating the growth in terms of productions and infrastructures.

With the magnifier analysis, this paper attempted to perform an extended analysis of the German electric vehicle (EV) market which is based on several key insights. Economic factors such as broader GDP volatility and market saturation also play a role. In addition, technological challenges and disruptions in the supply chain may have hindered infrastructure expansion. The paper also discusses about Government’s focus on promoting the sales of EVs by expanding the BEVs and PHEVs state wise. To sustain growth, technological innovation and growing consumer demand through enhanced incentives and infrastructure investments tailored to the needs of EV adoption. Hence, the Sustainable Mobility can be achieved truly once these factors are carefully studies and worked on, and finally can be added as a shining feather to the Germany’s Green Economy cap. (VDA, 2024)

7 References

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