The Sustainable Mobility
Analysis of Electric Vehicle Market in Germany
1 Introduction
We have witnessed a multitude of technological leaps over the decade, which has initiated a demand for the automotive industry to be at par, being driven by environmental concerns & changing consumer preferences. Electric Vehicles (EVs) have rapidly emerged as the pivotal sector worldwide. In this light, the leading EV market in Europe- Germany, stands out as a dominant and significant player, casting a dynamic and evolving market for electric vehicles. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of one of the prominent sectors of Germany’s leading green economy & compare it to that of the world leader in this market.
The clock set by the United Nations SDGs (Sutainability Development Goals) has included almost all of the world to be a part of this electric mobility, where it is witnessed that countries like China and the United States are taking the lead above Germany. Studies have shown that China not only leads in total EV sales but also in the rapid expansion of charging infrastructure and government incentives (Wang & Kimble, 2020). Therefore, with this paper, we will also go through the comparison of Germany with China and see in the balanced structure what the actual comparison holds for the economy. (International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023)
Finally, the paper will work as a magnifier to break down the different aspects of Germany’s EV market from Revenue contribution to state-wise ownership. This evaluation of the EV market in Germany is aimed at framing both national and international trends encompassing the market share and GDP contribution. Hence, with this analysis, we can further assess the future of the electric automobile industry in Germany and whether the reports and figures would be more impactful or not.
2 A Global Overview
The global electric vehicle (EV) market grew significantly between 2016 and 2023 due to the growing global commitment to sustainable transportation. During this time, there have been significant advances in technology, government incentives and growing consumer demand for environmentally friendly mobility solutions.
With the help of Figure 1 below, we are attempting to set an illustration of this growth in the top 6 countries worldwide, showing the turnover of EVs in millions of Euros. When we look at the historical time data, it is very evident that China is the dominant player in the global electric vehicle market, which is growing from 16,980 million euros in 2016 to 268,400 million euros in 2023.
In Europe, Germany predominantly led the growth of EVs, which grew from 1,375 million euros in 2016 to 48,510 million euros in 2023; swiftly emerging as number 3 in the worldwide market. The observations based on the data show China’s rigorous attempts have led it to yield high turnover but it is not sufficient to complete our comparitive analysis which will be covered further in this paper.
Additionally, to broaden the scope of our understanding of the world wide growth of Electric Vehicles, Table 1 gives the revenue of other 15 countries across the world, all of them showing a positive growth in Revenue between 2016 to 2023. (Statista, 2024)| Countries | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 3000.00 | 4044.00 | 4349.0 | 4780.0 | 6196.0 | 8411.0 | 9193 | 9221 |
| South Korea | 313.90 | 720.90 | 1580.0 | 1701.0 | 2478.0 | 5248.0 | 8580 | 8430 |
| Italy | 163.70 | 272.00 | 520.5 | 930.9 | 3173.0 | 6990.0 | 6880 | 6887 |
| Canada | 600.80 | 1029.00 | 2200.0 | 2708.0 | 2411.0 | 4289.0 | 6307 | 6551 |
| Belgium | 602.90 | 925.80 | 805.9 | 1087.0 | 2956.0 | 4175.0 | 6481 | 6496 |
| Netherlands | 1430.00 | 530.80 | 1468.0 | 3778.0 | 4909.0 | 5040.0 | 6366 | 6477 |
| Japan | 1537.00 | 3919.00 | 3411.0 | 2901.0 | 2017.0 | 2670.0 | 6437 | 6302 |
| Spain | 198.10 | 384.10 | 582.5 | 915.4 | 2182.0 | 3433.0 | 4509 | 4531 |
| Denmark | 79.79 | 55.96 | 293.4 | 574.3 | 2042.0 | 3999.0 | 3774 | 3829 |
| Switzerland | 298.70 | 440.40 | 483.5 | 899.1 | 1770.0 | 2673.0 | 3203 | 3283 |
| Austria | 271.30 | 385.20 | 451.0 | 638.0 | 1268.0 | 2451.0 | 2675 | 2751 |
| Australia | 99.05 | 155.00 | 250.2 | 560.8 | 375.8 | 1168.0 | 2474 | 2614 |
| Israel | 0.00 | 16.23 | 199.6 | 207.1 | 338.8 | 924.6 | 1937 | 1902 |
| Portugal | 105.80 | 231.30 | 421.3 | 674.3 | 1042.0 | 1434.0 | 1849 | 1883 |
| Finland | 85.86 | 178.30 | 319.4 | 457.4 | 990.5 | 1626.0 | 1806 | 1835 |
3 Comparison of China’s EV Market V/s Germany’s EV Market
3.1 Sales Trend
Figure 1 illustrates how China has dominated electric car production over the years. China’s electric car industry is characterized by strong sales and significant turnover, testifying to its dominance. In the global market, China’s electric vehicle industry leads in terms of huge volume, as shown in Figure 1. China’s electric vehicle industry has generated much more revenue than other countries. This economic dominance is complemented by the data in Figure 2, which highlights China’s superior sales volumes. The large number of electric cars sold in China illustrates China’s dominant position in the industry. (Colin McKerracher, 2023).
3.2 Infrastructure Development
Germany and China both have been focused since the beginning to develop a big EV market, however, when we view it precisely, Germany’s policies are comparatively less aggressive than China’s, which is depicted in the sales and revenue numbers in Figures 1 & 2. China’s urban planning and smart city projects link EV infrastructure development with broader urban development strategies. (Xinhua, 2022) This approach optimizes the use of electric vehicles in cities and effectively responds to congestion and pollution problems. China has rapidly expanded its network of electric car charging stations as it addresses distance anxiety and facilitates convenient urban and rural access for electric car owners. The expansion is supported by significant government investment, including incentives for public and private entities involved in the development of charging infrastructure. Figure 3 helps us scale the differences in infrastructure policies by comparing the number of charging stations built between 2016 and 2023..
Figure 3 shows charging infrastructure trends between China and Germany, with China clearly showing more aggressive charging station investment growth than Germany. For the period 2016-2022, China’s growth path highlights its strategic commitment to support the adoption of electric vehicles through extensive infrastructure development. This proactive approach will not only solve anxiety problems but also facilitate the widespread use of electric vehicles in urban and rural areas. In Germany, on the other hand, there is an upward trend in freight infrastructure, but the scale and pace seem to be more gradual. This difference underlines China’s leading position in the global electric vehicle market thanks to significant government investment and policies aimed at promoting sustainable mobility solutions. The data in Figure 3 highlights the key role of strong charging infrastructure in accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles and underscores China’s dominant position in shaping the future of electric transportation.
3.3 Implied Policies Overview
So far the observations keep hinting towards the role of Government implied policies in China and in Germany. Hence it becomes imperative to have an overview of how over these years, what different did the governments of both countries have done to result in these significant results. Whether it is the need of environmental concerns or motivating the producers by providing incentives or having an aggressive implication to integrate EVs, it is better illustrated by Table 2 below showing the policies application by both countries overtime. (Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (BAFA), 2024)
| Year | China | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Significant subsidies for EV purchases. | Incentives for EV upto €4,000 |
| 2016 | Incentives for EV manufacturers, NEV(New Energy Vehicle) Credit System | Expansion of EV infrastructure |
| 2017 | Mandatory EV production quotas | Diesel Ban discussions in major cities |
| 2018 | Massive investment in charging infrastructure | Increased incentives and tax benefits |
| 2019 | NEV subsidy phase-out, battery recycling regulations | Comprehensive climate package and EV charging law |
| 2020 | Extended subsidies, National NEV Development Plan | KfW(Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau) funding for private chargers, increased EV subsidies |
| 2021 | Promotion of battery swapping, tech innovation grants | Extension of Subsidies, corporate fleet quotas |
| 2022 | Subsidy adjustments, investment in smart charging | Integration of EV in green energy plans, vehicle tax reforms |
| 2023 | Stricter emissions standards, increased local support | Zero-emission zones, further infrastructure investments |
As appeared in Table 2, which compares government arrangements and motivating forces for EVs in both nations from 2015 to 2023, there are a few imperative contrasts in how China and Germany bargain with this issue. Major endowments for China, required generation quantities and broad venture in charging framework; These arrangements highlight the quick improvement towards worldwide authority in electric cars based on solid government sponsorship and sound technique. On the other hand, Germany has been more hesitant almost advertising diesel bans also green vitality systems. Usually since it has taken its time to extend appropriation plans or include to its EV charging systems not at all like China which acted instantly.
By and large, it can be concluded from this table that whereas China’s approach has been exceptionally confident as distant as EV take-up and outflows diminishment endeavors are concerned, Germany has favored caution in see of its administrative complexities and natural concerns. These variations show distinctive national techniques that shape long run course of their particular EV markets.
3.4 Standardizing the Comparison
From the above analysis points we have noticed how China’s EV market is dominant worldwide. But it is eminent to match the scale for comparison to have a better idea. It would not be fair to taking the view points of Sales, Revenue and Investments without considering the population and other factors. Hence, to create a balanced scale of comparison, we have to do per-capita analysis of both the countries to find out whether the projected analysis so far stands or there is a difference in the inference. Table 3 below encapsulates data necessary for the comparison of Revenue per capita of both China and Germany. (Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt)
| Year | Population (Billion)_Germany | Population (Billion)_China | Total EV Revenue (Billion EUR)_Germany | Total EV Revenue (Billion EUR)_China | EV Revenue per Capita (EUR)_Germany | EV Revenue per Capita (EUR)_China |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.82 | 1.37 | 0.3 | 5.10 | 3.66 | 3.72 |
| 2016 | 0.82 | 1.38 | 0.6 | 8.28 | 7.32 | 6.00 |
| 2017 | 0.83 | 1.39 | 1.2 | 13.47 | 14.46 | 9.69 |
| 2018 | 0.83 | 1.39 | 2.4 | 20.66 | 28.92 | 14.86 |
| 2019 | 0.83 | 1.40 | 3.3 | 22.02 | 39.76 | 15.73 |
| 2020 | 0.83 | 1.40 | 5.7 | 23.48 | 68.67 | 16.77 |
| 2021 | 0.83 | 1.41 | 10.5 | 83.99 | 126.51 | 59.57 |
| 2022 | 0.83 | 1.41 | 14.1 | 113.39 | 169.88 | 80.42 |
| 2023 | 0.84 | 1.41 | 18.0 | 118.30 | 214.29 | 83.90 |
Table 3 provides us sufficient data for comparison and we can clearly see that our observation from 3.1-3.3 has completely changed when we normalise the data on a balance. To better visualise it Figure 4 provides us the graphical comparison of the Revenue per capita of both the countries
To summarize,the data in the Table 3 includes annual figures from 2015 to 2023 comparing Germany and China by population, total electric vehicle revenue and electric vehicle revenue per capita. During this period, the turnover of electric vehicles in Germany has increased significantly, and there have been significant changes in percentage, such as 100% growth in 2016 and 2017, and a constant growth of 27.66% in 2023. Also, the income of electric cars per inhabitant increased significantly, and increased e.g. 100% in 2016 and 2018 and 26.14% in 2023.In China, total electric vehicle revenues were higher, but growth was more volatile. Significant jumps, for example, 62.35% in 2016 and a significant 257.71% in 2021. The per capita yield of electric vehicles also grew strongly as depicted in Figure 4, for example, 61.29% in 2016 and 255.22% in 2021, but slowed down until 2023 percent.
4 Germany’s EV Market: A Magnifier Analysis
4.1 Household aquired: Electric v/s Non Electric Vehicle
To begin with the analysis, we will study the household acquisition of electric and non-electric vehicles in terms of sales, as shown in Figure 5. The provided data from 2016 to 2023 illustrates a notable shift in consumer behavior in Germany. Non-electric vehicle sales have steadily declined from 3,300 thousand to 2,400 thousand, while electric vehicle sales have surged from 25 thousand to 672 thousand. This trend reflects the growing preference for electric vehicles, driven by environmental concerns, advancements in EV technology, and supportive government policies. Figure 5 highlights this significant transformation in Germany’s automotive market. (Loisel et al., 2014)
In Figure 5, we look at the development of German vehicles from 2016 to 2020, divided into non-electric vehicles (NEV) and electric vehicles (EV). The data shows significant growth in electric vehicles, which have surpassed EVs in recent years. In particular, sales of electric cars have shown steady growth, reflecting increasing adoption and government incentives to reduce carbon emissions. While NEV sales remained stable, they did not show comparable growth. This trend underscores the consumer shift toward sustainable transportation options and regulatory action to promote cleaner energy sources in the automotive industry.
Looking at Figure 6, which looks at the share of EVs and electric cars
in Germany in 2023, we expect the market share of electric cars to
continue to grow. This change is due to technological advances,
expansion of charging infrastructure and changing consumer preferences
for environmentally friendly vehicles. Policymakers and industry
stakeholders will likely continue to focus on encouraging the adoption
of electric vehicles to achieve broader sustainability goals and reduce
reliance on fossil fuels for transportation.
5 GDP Analysis
As part of our final segment, we will now explore the last and most important part of the multifaceted impact of EV, which is the contribution towards GDP. Hollistically, EVs contribute directly to exports, employement generation, environmental protection and infrastructure investment. Although the precise data of these factors is not easily available, this paper includes the Infrastructure Contribution and GDP per capita of EV from 2015-2023 showen in Figure 8.
Figure 8 shows a positive trend in GDP Per capita (Thousand EUR) which was witnessed in similar results in Figure 4 while comparing with China’s per capita. However, the Infrastructure contribution was progressing until 2023 where it showed a negative result. In 2023, Germany’s electric vehicle market underwent significant changes, influenced by a complex mix of policy shifts, consumer behaviours, and economic factors. The year was marked by a transitional phase in the EV sector, reflecting a broader trend towards sustainable mobility amidst evolving market conditions and governmental policies.
Impact of Subsidy Phase-Out: The phase-out of subsidies for electric cars, especially the complete removal of business subsidies for EV purchases as of September 1, 2023, led to a significant reduction in plug-in vehicle registrations. This reduction was observed in September 2023, with a 35% decrease in all plug-in registrations year over year for the month.
Consumer Response to Subsidy Changes: German customers, aware of the changes in subsidy policies, planned their buying accordingly. There was a surge in sales in August ahead of the subsidy cut-off, and a similar trend was expected before further reductions in January 2024. The approach of consumers to maximize the resale value of EVs through subsidies also affected the market dynamics.
6 Conclusion
To conclude, this paper lays out the analysis of the Electric Vehicle Market in 3 folds- the Growth in terms of revenue globally, analysing the market dominance of China and finally a mangnifier analysis of Germany’s market. The period 2016-2023 marked an era of change in the global electric vehicle market, driven by technological advances, supportive policies and increasing demand for sustainable transport solutions. Figures 1-3 vividly illustrate this growth and highlight contrasting approaches and results of China and Germany in promoting EV adoption in reducing carbon emissions. China has become a pioneer in the global adoption of electric vehicles, bolstered by significant government subsidies, strict emissions standards and extensive infrastructure investment. Sales of electric vehicles in China increased from 16,980 million euros in 2016 to 268,400 million euros by 2023, reflecting China’s proactive policies to reduce carbon emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. Germany, on the other hand, followed a methodical approach with additional incentives and a regulatory framework aimed at integrating electric vehicles into green energy initiatives. Although, the aggressive strategy of China has ensured a dominance over the Global revenue and sales number but while comparing on the per capita level, Germany has been doing substantially well following it’s strategic maneuver and emphasis on motivating the growth in terms of productions and infrastructures.
With the magnifier analysis, this paper attempted to perform an extended analysis of the German electric vehicle (EV) market which is based on several key insights. Economic factors such as broader GDP volatility and market saturation also play a role. In addition, technological challenges and disruptions in the supply chain may have hindered infrastructure expansion. The paper also discusses about Government’s focus on promoting the sales of EVs by expanding the BEVs and PHEVs state wise. To sustain growth, technological innovation and growing consumer demand through enhanced incentives and infrastructure investments tailored to the needs of EV adoption. Hence, the Sustainable Mobility can be achieved truly once these factors are carefully studies and worked on, and finally can be added as a shining feather to the Germany’s Green Economy cap. (VDA, 2024)