An Analysis of QB Efficiency Improvment or Decline

Author

Billy Jackson

Introduction

I am going to be performing an analysis on seasonal NFL player data, provided by nfl_data_py library. This data records information about each offensive player in the NFL from 2012-2023, along with that players individual statistics from each season they have played in that time period. Each row is a player and a season and each column is a statistic or descriptive information specific to each player (ex: draft year, pick in draft, team played for in that season). You can learn more about this data-set at this link: NFL Stats 2012-2023

Question

Are quarterbacks more or less efficient on average in terms of completion percentage and TD/INT ratio as passing is more primary method of offense each season? (Visual below showing trend towards passing increasing steadily)

Running Code & Visuals

Analysis of Visuals

The best (on average) season for QB efficiency are the 2015 & 2020 seasons. The most recent seasons (2022-2023) saw 2 of the 3 lowest TD/INT of all 11 seasons, but in regards to comp. %, those seasons were the 3rd and 4th highest. There does not appear to be any significant indicator that QBs are more or less efficient as passing has become more frequent/prevalent.

--- title: "An Analysis of QB Efficiency Improvment or Decline" author: "Billy Jackson" # Author name toc: true # Generates an automatic table of contents. format: # Options related to formatting. html: # Options related to HTML output. code-tools: TRUE # Allow the code tools option showing in the output. embed-resources: TRUE # Embeds all components into a single HTML file. execute: # Options related to the execution of code chunks. warning: FALSE # FALSE: Code chunk sarnings are hidden by default. message: FALSE # FALSE: Code chunk messages are hidden by default. echo: FALSE # FALSE: Show no code in the output. --- ## Introduction I am going to be performing an analysis on seasonal NFL player data, provided by nfl_data_py library. This data records information about each offensive player in the NFL from 2012-2023, along with that players individual statistics from each season they have played in that time period. Each row is a player and a season and each column is a statistic or descriptive information specific to each player (ex: draft year, pick in draft, team played for in that season). You can learn more about this data-set at this link: [NFL Stats 2012-2023](https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/philiphyde1/nfl-stats-1999-2022?select=weekly_player_data.csv) ## Question Are quarterbacks more or less efficient on average in terms of completion percentage and TD/INT ratio as passing is more primary method of offense each season? (Visual below showing trend towards passing increasing steadily) ## Running Code & Visuals ```{r} #| label: setup #| incude: false library(tidyverse) # for all the tidy things library(skimr) # for better summary statistics ``` ```{r} #| label: load data a1p2 <- read_csv("https://myxavier-my.sharepoint.com/:x:/g/personal/jacksonw6_xavier_edu/ERmosLndV-BKh492Og3jDX0BdeRNfNXLAKYT7ZGJSPtOcg?download=1") ``` ```{r} seasonal_qb <- a1p2 %>% filter(position == "QB") %>% group_by(season) %>% summarise(total_pass_attmts = sum(pass_attempts, na.rm = TRUE), avg_pass_rating = mean(passer_rating, na.rm = TRUE)) seasonal_qb %>% ggplot(aes(x = season, y = total_pass_attmts)) + geom_bar(stat = "identity", fill = "blue") + labs(title = "Total Pass Attempts by Season (2012-2023)", x = "Season", y = "Total Pass Attempts") a1p2$int_pct[a1p2$int_pct == 0] <- NA a1p2$td_int <- c(a1p2$pass_td_pct/a1p2$int_pct) seasonal_qb_eff <- a1p2 %>% filter(position == "QB") %>% group_by(season) %>% summarise(avg_comp_pct = mean(comp_pct, na.rm = TRUE), avg_td_int = mean(td_int, na.rm = TRUE)) seasonal_qb_eff %>% ggplot(aes(x = avg_td_int, y = avg_comp_pct, color = as.factor(season))) + geom_point(na.rm = TRUE) + geom_text(aes(label = season), vjust = -0.5, size = 3, na.rm = TRUE) + labs(title = "QB Efficiency by Season", x = "TD/INT", y = "Completion %") ``` ## Analysis of Visuals The best (on average) season for QB efficiency are the 2015 & 2020 seasons. The most recent seasons (2022-2023) saw 2 of the 3 lowest TD/INT of all 11 seasons, but in regards to comp. %, those seasons were the 3rd and 4th highest. There does not appear to be any significant indicator that QBs are more or less efficient as passing has become more frequent/prevalent.