Jurisdictions
Map
The jurisdictional map relies on a multivariate maximum likelihood model using Census-derived attributes as features for predicting the probability an area will vote in majority for a Republican candidate. The probability of (R) is expressed as a continuous value, along with several of the social and demographic characteristics of each area. The model was trained using election results for the 119th Congress’ districts and projected instead onto jurisdiction.
Correlations
County rankings
Congressional districts
Summary statistics
A district level summary
| Democratic | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| Population | 165128381 | 163435856 |
| Actual districts | 220 | 233 |
| Valid districts | 213 (49.9%) | 212 (49.6%) |
| Population density | m=1,711.104 (sd=3743.368) | m=224.866 (sd=575.217) |
| Power index | m=0.334 (sd=0.046) | m=0.353 (sd=0.042) |
| Power per representative | m=0.133 (sd=0.007) | m=0.13 (sd=0.006) |
| Power by party | 0.133 | 0.143 |
| Average member age | m=57.793 (sd=13.485) | m=56.675 (sd=11.296) |
| Count of freshmen | 33 (15.5%) | 27 (12.7%) |
| Avg % Caucasian alone | m=52.747 (sd=18.674) | m=74.07 (sd=11.842) |
| Avg % African American alone | m=15.684 (sd=15.734) | m=9.058 (sd=7.997) |
| Avg % Multi-racial | m=12.253 (sd=6.623) | m=9.001 (sd=5.975) |
| Avg % Hispanic/Latinx | m=24.132 (sd=19.67) | m=13.629 (sd=13.346) |
| Avg % native to state | m=54.795 (sd=13.014) | m=61.082 (sd=13.549) |
| Avg % foreign born | m=19.44 (sd=11.193) | m=8.262 (sd=6.983) |
| Avg % naturalized citizen | m=10.319 (sd=6.463) | m=4.179 (sd=4.037) |
| Avg % resident w/o move in 12mos | m=87.459 (sd=2.98) | m=87.321 (sd=2.169) |
| Avg % workers w/ 90min commute | m=3.081 (sd=1.843) | m=2.539 (sd=1.332) |
| Avg % households w/ single parent | m=26.714 (sd=9.117) | m=22.881 (sd=5.007) |
| Avg % women w/ birth in 12mos | m=4.931 (sd=0.65) | m=5.409 (sd=0.618) |
| Avg % women, aged 15-19 w/ birth in 12mos | m=0.109 (sd=0.091) | m=0.133 (sd=0.078) |
| Avg % adults w/ <9th grade education | m=5.798 (sd=4.112) | m=3.764 (sd=2.034) |
| Avg % adult Bachelor’s degree in STEM | m=46.016 (sd=4.682) | m=42.71 (sd=2.789) |
| Avg % unemployed, qualifying for poverty | m=1.033 (sd=0.454) | m=0.791 (sd=0.249) |
| Avg % minors w/ Medicaid | m=34.83 (sd=12.705) | m=31.304 (sd=9.346) |
| Avg % elderly w/ Medicare | m=31.741 (sd=6.054) | m=32.769 (sd=4.826) |
| Avg % adults w/ veterans’ benefits or TRICARE | m=0.969 (sd=1.021) | m=1.586 (sd=1.345) |
| Avg % workers federally employed | m=2.785 (sd=2.607) | m=2.504 (sd=1.308) |