The Duels are a small-field, relatively low stakes plate race. It is a completely unique style of DFS contest.

These tables and charts will use historical duel data to help prepare you for Thursday’s contests.

All data is Charter Era (2016-2024) only. 2016-2018 scoring does not include FL points

Car Counts

With 45 cars on the entry list this year, we will have the largest field in the Charter Era (2016-current) and our first 23 car duel since 2015

Caution Counts and Impact

Crash DNF is anyone who was listed as Out to due Accident, Crash or DVP

Cautions are generally on the low end, with just 1 of 18 races having more than 2 cautions. In the 6 NextGen races, we have seen a combined 5 cautions.

This has led to a very stable amount of dominator points up for grabs.

Despite the dwindling caution counts in the NextGen era, DNFs from those cautions have been up. This is mainly coming from 2 big wrecks, one in Duel 2 each of the last 2 years.

Duel 2 in 2023 had a debris caution early and then a big one late with 18 to go. In addition to the 4 DNFs we see on the chart (Busch, Herbst, AHill, Pastrana), there were 2 other cars listed as involved in the accident. Justin Haley, who finished 14th (16 LL finishers) and Daniel Suarez, who finished 12th.

Duel 2 in 2024 ran green for the first 48 laps before a crash that produced 4 DNFs and had 11 of the 21 cars listed as involved to some degree. But those other names listed seemed to be fine for the most part, with 5 of them finishing top 10.

Dominator Breakdown

Fastest Lap data is 2018-current only

Fastest Laps don’t seem like they will factor in here. Pretty much every driver in the field should get at least 1 or 2. And the upper end is usually only 5 or 6

The top finishers are usually the ones leading the laps, which makes sense given the length of the race and the fact there is only one pit stop.

The lack of correlation between FL and LL lines up with what you’d expect to see in a plate race.

All of these findings culminate in the final chart, which shows us that outside of the winner, the dominator points are pretty evenly spread. There are some relatively big (5+ points) days near the front, but we also see some of them ending up at the very back too.

Place Differential Analysis

Performance by Position Change
change_category avg_DKPoints median_DKPoints avg_DKRank count
Gained 5+ 48.75 49.075 4.12 60
Gained 1-5 38.48 39.000 8.49 138
No Change 33.01 32.875 11.69 36
Lost 1-5 28.70 28.000 13.90 71
Lost 5+ 19.25 17.525 18.01 76

Place differential at the Duels looks a lot different than place differential in the full race. The two big differences are the field size and the crash count.

With the field size cut in half, there is simply less place differential available. Combine that with limited amounts of attrition and we see only 60 drivers across 18 Duel races have gained more than 5 spots.

Most drivers fall in the 1-5 spots gained group.

Starting Position vs Finishing Position

Besides the 1st starting spot performing pretty poorly, there isn’t much signal when looking at DK performance and ranks by starting position. The top 10 starting positions actually have slightly higher median ranks in most cases.

When we look at it by finishing position, the picture becomes clear. This is the stat that matters. This shouldn’t be much of a surprise given the data we have seen so far.

With limited dominator points and PD available, finishing points is all that remains. So it makes sense that the best finishers are also the best Draftkings scorers.

DK Rank Thresholds

The top DK scorer is usually getting into the mid 50s for DK points.

Low 40s is usually enough to make you a top 6 scorer.

Mid 30s should get you into the top 10, which can be useful if salary ends up being tight.

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Conclusions

Based on our analysis of historical Daytona Duel data from 2016-2024, several key strategic insights emerge:

Race Dynamics

  • Cautions are relatively rare, with only 1 of 18 races having more than 2 cautions
  • Despite fewer cautions in the NextGen era, DNFs have increased, particularly in Duel 2 over the last two years
  • Races feature just one pit stop, limiting strategic variance

Scoring Components

  • Fastest lap points are widely distributed, with most drivers getting 1-2 and the maximum usually being 5-6
  • Laps led correlate strongly with finishing position due to the race length and limited pit stops
  • Outside of the winner, dominator points tend to be evenly spread across the field
  • Finishing position is the strongest predictor of DK scoring success, more so than in full-length races

Scoring Thresholds

  • Top scorer typically reaches mid-50s in DK points
  • Low 40s generally secures a top-6 finish
  • Mid-30s is usually enough for a top-10, which can be valuable for salary-saving plays
  • Place differential is less impactful than in full races due to smaller fields and fewer cautions

Strategic Implications

  • Focus on drivers who can finish well rather than banking on place differential
  • Don’t overweight starting position in your analysis - there’s limited correlation with DK performance
  • Be particularly cautious with exposure to Duel 2 given recent crash history
  • Don’t chase dominator points - they’re too evenly distributed to be a primary factor