Background

Background on project objectives and questions to be asked

Thank you for agreeing to take part in this online expert elicitation to help inform the development of a national recovery strategy for red squirrels in England. In this exercise, we will seek your expert judgment on a number of parameters that influence red squirrel population dynamics. These parameters span a range of topics, including the life history characteristics of red and grey squirrels, the epidemiology of squirrelpox virus, and the effectiveness of grey squirrel management strategies. Your answers will directly feed into a large-scale population model that aims to predict the recovery of red squirrels under different biological and management scenarios. Essentially, your expertise will help parameterise the model and include uncertainty, ensuring that it reflects the best available knowledge about these species and their interactions.

F - Fertility Control

Question F.1

Given an individual grey squirrel orally consumes the fertility control bait being developed, what is the chance that it will develop a physiological response leading to contraception?

Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence

Question F.2

Given an individual grey squirrel orally consumes the contraceptive bait being developed, what proportional reduction to you expect from its fecundity?


Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
B 0 0 0 100

Question F.3

Given an individual grey squirrel orally consumes the contraceptive bait being developed, how long would you expect that individual to be under the effect of the contraceptive, on average?


Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
B 0 0 0 100

Question F.4

What is the probability that fertility control methods currently under development will become widely available for use by landowners, government organizations, and volunteer groups to manage grey squirrel populations?


Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
B 0 0 0 100

Question F.5

If said oral contraceptive is developed and approved as a management tool available for use by landowners, government organizations, and conservation groups, by what year do you expect it to become available for said groups?


Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
B 0 0 0 100