The State of Energy and Climate Policy

class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide

.title[
# The State of Energy and Climate Policy
]
.subtitle[
## Energy and Climate Policy and Politics in US State Legislatures, 2011 to 2024
]
.author[
### Boris Shor and Jennifer Clark
]
.institute[
### Department of Political Science and Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston
]
.date[
### Februrary 3, 2025
]

---

# Recent Policies in California

.pull-left[

- **2023**
  - SB 704: Harder to build oil and gas developments off coast
  - AB 1389: Targets for electric vehicle charging stations
  - SB 619: Speed up permitting for electric lines
- **2022**
  - AB 1279: Carbon neutrality by 2045
  - AB 1020: Target 90% of electricity from clean sources by 2035 and 95% by 2040

]

.pull-right[
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#Graphics/newsom.jpg" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
# Colorado enacts SB 1281 (2023)

.pull-left[

- Provides tax credits of up to $1/kg for users of clean hydrogen — first public subsidy for low-carbon H^2 usage
  - Applies to "green hydrogen" but likely not "blue hydrogen" or "gray hydrogen"
  - Context: Colorado has a unified, progessive Democratic legislative majority
]

.pull-right[
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#Graphics/polis.jpeg" width="60%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
# States are where the action is

- Policy gridlock much more likely in Washington compared to states
- Regulation of energy and environment is frequently most done at the state level
- Lower level governments are at the control of states
- Diffusion
  - Policies spread to 'similar' states
    - New York, Washington, and Massachusetts are going to follow California
    - Louisiana, Florida, Georgia are going to follow Texas
  - Policies spread to federal government depending on the presidential administration
  
---
# Partisanship of Legislative Majorities, 2024

---
# New Big Data, but how to find climate bills?

.pull-left[

- New big data set on 1.1mm bills in 50 states between 2011 and 2024

- Keyword-assisted topic modeling (Eshima, Imai, and Sasaki 2024)
  - 110k bills on climate, energy, environment
  - Machine learning topic modeling (machine learning)
  
- Human coding
  - 40k bills on energy
  - Manually coded by Center for New Energy Economy at Colorado State

]

.pull-right[
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-poster-2025_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
# Bill content

- We find many thousands of these bills. But what's in them?
- Even if we know the *policy area* we don't know in which *direction* policy is being made
- Alternative strategy is to use contextual data, mostly from bill sponsors
  - Bill-level data
    - Good: Sponsor partisanship - Democratic only, Republican only, Bipartisan
    - Better: Sponsor ideology - median sponsor's ideal point
      - Shor-McCarty scores (2011, 2022)
- Our measure: median bill sponsor. Positive scores more conservative, negative scores more liberal.
- We divide in ideology terciles for visualizations

---
# Sponsor ideology of bills that passed

- Of the bills that pass, moderate and ideological bills do well, depending on the legislative context
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-poster-2025_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" alt="Passed Bill Sponsorship Rates, By Ideology" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Passed Bill Sponsorship Rates, By Ideology</p>
</div>

---
# Cumulative Outcomes

- If we look at all bills cumulatively, moderate bills account for half the total

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-poster-2025_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png" alt="Bill Outcomes by Ideology" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Bill Outcomes by Ideology</p>
</div>

---
# Trends

- Nevertheless the trend is for the average climate and energy bill to be more liberal over time

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-poster-2025_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" alt="Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time</p>
</div>

---
# Polarization of Energy Legislation

- Bills passed in Democratic legislatures are polarizing most rapidly
  - Average bill was at most most moderate 29% of party in 2011
  - Average bill was at most most moderate 42% of party in 2023
- Bills passed in Republican legislatures polarized less by comparison (but pickup 2021-)
  - Average bill was at most most moderate 28% of party in 2011
  - Average bill was at most most moderate 33% of party in 2023

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-poster-2025_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" alt="Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time by Majority Party" width="60%" />
<p class="caption">Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time by Majority Party</p>
</div>
---
# Median bill sponsor by state

- Average climate bill tracks state legislative ideology, but shaded to the left
- Compare California and Texas

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-poster-2025_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" alt="Median Sponsor" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Median Sponsor</p>
</div>
---
# State Trends: South

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-poster-2025_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" alt="State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, South" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, South</p>
</div>

---
# State Trends: West

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-poster-2025_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" alt="State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, West" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, West</p>
</div>

---
# Legislator-level vote model (distance measure)

- We model legislative votes on climate bills as a function of the (absolute) distance between the legislator and the bill sponsor
- We control for district opinion measured via Republican presidential vote share
- We have three separate models for bill sponsorship: Democratic, Republican, and Bipartisan
- As distance goes up, the legislator is less likely to vote for the bill

<div id="qrhnsgkgaq" style="padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:10px;overflow-x:auto;overflow-y:auto;width:auto;height:auto;">
<style>#qrhnsgkgaq table {
  font-family: system-ui, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Noto Color Emoji';
  -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;
  -moz-osx-font-smoothing: grayscale;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq thead, #qrhnsgkgaq tbody, #qrhnsgkgaq tfoot, #qrhnsgkgaq tr, #qrhnsgkgaq td, #qrhnsgkgaq th {
  border-style: none;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq p {
  margin: 0;
  padding: 0;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_table {
  display: table;
  border-collapse: collapse;
  line-height: normal;
  margin-left: auto;
  margin-right: auto;
  color: #333333;
  font-size: 16px;
  font-weight: normal;
  font-style: normal;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  width: auto;
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 2px;
  border-top-color: #A8A8A8;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 2px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #A8A8A8;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 2px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_caption {
  padding-top: 4px;
  padding-bottom: 4px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_title {
  color: #333333;
  font-size: 125%;
  font-weight: initial;
  padding-top: 4px;
  padding-bottom: 4px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  border-bottom-color: #FFFFFF;
  border-bottom-width: 0;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_subtitle {
  color: #333333;
  font-size: 85%;
  font-weight: initial;
  padding-top: 3px;
  padding-bottom: 5px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  border-top-color: #FFFFFF;
  border-top-width: 0;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_heading {
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  text-align: center;
  border-bottom-color: #FFFFFF;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 1px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 1px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_bottom_border {
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_col_headings {
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 2px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 1px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 1px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_col_heading {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: normal;
  text-transform: inherit;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 1px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 1px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  vertical-align: bottom;
  padding-top: 5px;
  padding-bottom: 6px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  overflow-x: hidden;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_column_spanner_outer {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: normal;
  text-transform: inherit;
  padding-top: 0;
  padding-bottom: 0;
  padding-left: 4px;
  padding-right: 4px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_column_spanner_outer:first-child {
  padding-left: 0;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_column_spanner_outer:last-child {
  padding-right: 0;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_column_spanner {
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  vertical-align: bottom;
  padding-top: 5px;
  padding-bottom: 5px;
  overflow-x: hidden;
  display: inline-block;
  width: 100%;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_spanner_row {
  border-bottom-style: hidden;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_group_heading {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: initial;
  text-transform: inherit;
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 2px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 1px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 1px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  vertical-align: middle;
  text-align: left;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_empty_group_heading {
  padding: 0.5px;
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: initial;
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 2px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  vertical-align: middle;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_from_md > :first-child {
  margin-top: 0;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_from_md > :last-child {
  margin-bottom: 0;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_row {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  margin: 10px;
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 1px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 1px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 1px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  vertical-align: middle;
  overflow-x: hidden;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_stub {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: initial;
  text-transform: inherit;
  border-right-style: solid;
  border-right-width: 2px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_stub_row_group {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: initial;
  text-transform: inherit;
  border-right-style: solid;
  border-right-width: 2px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  vertical-align: top;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_row_group_first td {
  border-top-width: 2px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_row_group_first th {
  border-top-width: 2px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_summary_row {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  text-transform: inherit;
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_first_summary_row {
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_first_summary_row.thick {
  border-top-width: 2px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_last_summary_row {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_grand_summary_row {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  text-transform: inherit;
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_first_grand_summary_row {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  border-top-style: double;
  border-top-width: 6px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_last_grand_summary_row_top {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  border-bottom-style: double;
  border-bottom-width: 6px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_striped {
  background-color: rgba(128, 128, 128, 0.05);
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_table_body {
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 2px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_footnotes {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  border-bottom-style: none;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 2px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 2px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_footnote {
  margin: 0px;
  font-size: 90%;
  padding-top: 4px;
  padding-bottom: 4px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_sourcenotes {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  border-bottom-style: none;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 2px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 2px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_sourcenote {
  font-size: 90%;
  padding-top: 4px;
  padding-bottom: 4px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_left {
  text-align: left;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_center {
  text-align: center;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_right {
  text-align: right;
  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_font_normal {
  font-weight: normal;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_font_bold {
  font-weight: bold;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_font_italic {
  font-style: italic;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_super {
  font-size: 65%;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_footnote_marks {
  font-size: 75%;
  vertical-align: 0.4em;
  position: initial;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_asterisk {
  font-size: 100%;
  vertical-align: 0;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_indent_1 {
  text-indent: 5px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_indent_2 {
  text-indent: 10px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_indent_3 {
  text-indent: 15px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_indent_4 {
  text-indent: 20px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .gt_indent_5 {
  text-indent: 25px;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq .katex-display {
  display: inline-flex !important;
  margin-bottom: 0.75em !important;
}

#qrhnsgkgaq div.Reactable > div.rt-table > div.rt-thead > div.rt-tr.rt-tr-group-header > div.rt-th-group:after {
  height: 0px !important;
}
</style>
<table class="gt_table" data-quarto-disable-processing="false" data-quarto-bootstrap="false">
  <thead>
    <tr class="gt_col_headings">
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="a-"> </th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Democratic">Democratic</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bipartisan">Bipartisan</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Republican">Republican</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody class="gt_table_body">
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">District Presidential Vote</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.100***</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.057***</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.047***</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left"></td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.008)</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.009)</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.014)</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">Legislator-Bill Ideological Distance</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.181***</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.197***</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.216***</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;"></td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.007)</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.009)</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.011)</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">N</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">87,010</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">78,610</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">39,685</td></tr>
  </tbody>
  <tfoot class="gt_sourcenotes">
    <tr>
      <td class="gt_sourcenote" colspan="4">Standard errors displayed in parens. *p<0.05; **p<0.01; ***p<0.001</td>
    </tr>
  </tfoot>
  
</table>
</div>

---
# Next steps

- We completed an energy and climate survey timed to the 2024 elections
- We are working on the 2nd wave of the survey, coauthoring with economist Soren Anderson (Michigan State)
- This survey will embed a survey experiment to generate estimates of _willingness to pay_ for a variety of climate policy interventions
- This will help us to understand the political economy of climate policy in the states