Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

January 13, 2025

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Bangladesh, Belarus, Cambodia, Macedonia, Indonesia, Dominican Republic, Kosovo. We are forecasting major events for Cambodia.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Bangladesh

For Bangladesh, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, We have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism: From September to November, various political and social organizations in Bangladesh expressed concern over violence and casualties in the Rangamati-Khouti region, urging government intervention to resolve ongoing conflicts. Transparency International Bangladesh advocated for information freedom and legal reforms, which could lead to policy development on freedom of speech and expression. Youth climate activists demanded immediate amendments to energy policies to increase funding for renewable energy.

  • Censorship: From October to November, student organizations in Bangladesh were banned as part of counter-terrorism measures. Digital security laws were used to sentence journalists. The Ministry of Information canceled journalists’ press credentials.

  • Cooperation: From September to November, a tripartite agreement was signed between Bangladesh, Nepal, and India to import electricity from Nepal. The US expressed its readiness to support Bangladesh’s transitional government. Bangladesh engaged with India to emphasize bilateral cooperation on mutual regional interests, and held talks with Switzerland to deepen economic partnerships.

  • Corruption: From September to October, several high-profile corruption investigations have come to light in Bangladesh. Former railway minister Mo. Gilal Hakim and his family, as well as Toma Construction and Max Infrastructure, are under scrutiny for misconduct related to land and railway contracts totaling $3 million. Additional significant cases involve former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina regarding a $5 billion corruption scandal linked to the Suppur Nuclear Power Plant project, Basic Bank’s former chairman Sheikh Abdul-Bachchu, and former naval minister Shahan Khan. Investigations into fraudulent activities involve former officials in the education and police sectors. Transparency International Bangladesh highlighted systemic corruption in major infrastructure projects, with significant financial misappropriation affecting road and bridge construction over the past 14 years.

  • Coup: From October to November, the student-led coup in Bangladesh resulted in the overthrow of the Awami League government. Sheikh Hasina fled the country, leaving a leadership vacuum that led to an interim government, which introduced reforms causing civil unrest and economic hardship. The transitional government faced challenges in maintaining control and addressing financial mismanagement, prompting widespread public dissatisfaction and calls for constitutional reform and new elections. Opposition groups, including Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP supporters, were implicated in a coup, leading to the displacement of the Awami League government and widespread political instability. A non-violent coup involving police and military elements targeted the transitional government.

  • Legal Changes: From September to November, the proposed constitutional reforms in Bangladesh aimed to amend democratic governance by restructuring parliamentary systems and ensuring citizens’ democratic rights. The government’s decision to ban the Special Security Law for the Family of Bongfriend Sheikh Mububur Rahman marked a shift towards equal legal protection. The potential reform of the Cyber Security Law highlighted efforts to safeguard human rights and ensure freedom of expression.
  • Purge/Replace: From September to October, a large-scale institutional restructuring within the Bangladesh Police occurred with the transfer of over 47 officers, including high-ranking officials. Administrative adjustments were noted in Dhaka and Chittagong with key police transfers and the removal of a water management director.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted an increase in reporting Civic Space Index in Q4 2024, and an increase in reporting Non-lethal Violence in Q4 2024.

We did not see a spike in reporting on Non-lethal Violence in Q4 2024.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Arrests in Q1 2025, Civic Activism in Q1 2025, Legal Actions in Q1 2025, Q2 2025 and Q4 2024, and Non-lethal Violence in Q2 2025.

Belarus

Belarus’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

Cambodia

For Cambodia, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, We have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests: From October to November, six individuals, including prominent figures like Okhna Ly Samet, were arrested in Cambodia as part of anti-graft investigations related to the alleged sale of important government posts. A Lao national was detained at the Trapeang Kriel International Border Checkpoint for allegedly transporting over one million meth pills.
  • Corruption: In November, Ly Samet and several others were arrested for corruption related to the sale of government posts as part of an anti-graft investigation by the Anti-Corruption Unit. Chea Saron and eight associates faced charges for fraudulent real estate sales, leading to the freezing of 106 bank and microfinance accounts and the seizure of over 2.28 million square meters of land by the Kampot Provincial Court.

  • Disaster: In September, extensive flooding in Cambodia affected at least 2,300 households and over 1,000 hectares of rice fields across multiple provinces, leading to government actions, including severe weather warnings and disaster management efforts to mitigate impacts and improve infrastructure.

  • Legal Actions: In October, former district governor Kan Sokkhay was dismissed by Prime Minister Hun Manet after being involved in a bribery case paying $300,000 to Oknha Ly Samet in an unsuccessful bid to become the Arey Ksat town governor. Investigative journalist Mech Dara was arrested and charged with incitement to cause social unrest due to his social media posts.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Protests in Q2 2025.

Our shock models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months.

Macedonia

For Macedonia, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, We have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Cooperation: In September, Prime Minister Hristian Mickoski met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Ohrid to strengthen bilateral economic cooperation and support Macedonia’s EU integration process. President Gordana Siljanovska Davkova engaged with Bulgarian President Rumen Radev to resolve bilateral issues and enhance cultural and economic collaboration. Macedonia’s participation in the 79th UN General Assembly, led by President Siljanovska Davkova, focused on discussing the country’s EU accession process and its cooperation with the UNDP.

  • Corruption: From September to October, the opposition party VMRO-DPMNE accused the ruling LSDM of funneling millions of euros to affiliated companies through government tenders. Former Minister of Agriculture Ljupco Don Nikolovski and Bekim Emini, ex-Director of the Foreign Investment Agency, faced investigations for alleged abuses of power leading to significant financial losses. There have been reports of debt write-off scandal in Macedonia’s energy sector and the corruption investigation against Besija Ilazi at the University Institute of Toxicology. A joint operation by the Prosecutor’s Office for Prosecution of Organised Crime and Corruption and the Interior Ministry in Macedonia led to the arrest of thirteen individuals on charges related to mediating prostitution, drug trafficking, and illegal income. A separate coordinated action in the western part of the country resulted in the arrest of another 13 individuals linked to organized crime. Various charges were brought against former public officials, including the former Minister of Culture and Skopje municipal authorities, for abuse of office and corruption.

  • Legal Actions: In September, there were reports of the Skopje Court of Appeals ordering a retrial for former Secretary-General Muhamed Zeqiri over abuse of office charges. A criminal trial began involving Ljupco Palevski and others for the kidnapping and murder of Vanja Gjorcevski and Pance Zezovski. Investigations continued into alleged criminal activities at the Skopje Oncology Clinic relating to the misuse of cancer drugs. Macedonia’s Constitutional Court debated religious practice bans in military facilities, while the State Commission for Prevention of Corruption pursued actions against SDSM leader Venko Filipce regarding undeclared assets.

  • Legal Changes: From September to October, the Reform Agenda approved by the European Commission introduced critical socio-economic and fundamental reforms. There were reports of constitutional changes, involving minority rights protections. The abolition by the Constitutional Court of a specific army regulation emphasized constitutional limits on military authority.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months.

Indonesia

For Indonesia, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, We have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests: From October to November, the Indonesian Attorney General’s Office arrested three judges from the State Court of Surabaya on charges of accepting bribes related to a corruption and murder case. The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) conducted a hand-arrest operation in South Kalimantan, resulting in the arrest of multiple individuals, including Governor Sahbirin Noor, for suspected corruption. The KPK arrested former Chief Health Center Chief Budi Sylvana for alleged corruption related to Covid-19 protective equipment procurement. Governor Bengkulu Rohidin Mersyah was arrested in a hand-arrest operation. Metro Jaya Police implicated employees from the Ministry of Communications and Digital in an online gambling scandal investigation, resulting in 24 arrests. Eight suspected terrorists associated with the Indonesian Islamic State were apprehended by Detachment 88.

  • Cooperation: In October, president Joko Widodo and President-elect Prabowo Subianto engaged in meetings for a leadership transition. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance worked with President-elect Prabowo on the 2025 State Budget. Indonesia strengthened diplomatic engagements with Malaysia and Vanuatu and reinforced national security through collaboration between BNPT and Densus 88 AT on counterterrorism.

  • Corruption: From October to November, Supreme Court official Zarof Ricar and other members were implicated in a bribery case involving former Supreme Court associate Gregory Ronald Tannur, leading to the discovery of Rp920 billion and 51 kg of gold. Former Trade Minister Thomas Lembong was accused of corruption related to sugar import permits during 2015-2016, allegedly causing a state loss of Rp400 billion. South Kalimantan Governor Sahbirin Noor and other officials were implicated in a bribery scheme connected to construction projects. Governor Bengkulu Rohidin Mersyah was implicated in extortion schemes and arrested by the KPK during the Pilgub campaign. The Attorney General’s Office arrested Hendry Lie for corruption and money laundering in the lead commodity trade.

  • Election Activity: From September to November, the Jakarta Province’s Public Election Commission confirmed the qualification of three major gubernatorial candidate pairs for the 2024 Pilkada, including Ridwan Kamil-Suswono, who received strong polling support according to the Indonesian Survey Society. The prevalence of single-candidate elections was noted in 41 regions across Indonesia. In the Jakarta Pilkada 2024 quick count results, the Pramono Anung-Rano Karno pair, backed by Anies Baswedan, showed significant voter support. The General Election Commission in Jakarta ensured a transparent electoral process. Ridwan Kamil-Suswono, supported by President Jokowi, held a major campaign event.

  • Election Irregularities: In November, severe violations in vote polling were reported in East Jakarta, allegedly involving election officials. Errors in Form C1 documents in multiple areas suggested procedural violations by election authorities. Misinformation about election integrity became viral in Bali. Voter intimidation was reported across several polling stations in DKI Jakarta.

  • Security Mobilization: From September to November, over 9,000 personnel managed security for Pope Francis’s visit in Jakarta from September 3-6, 2024. Additionally, 71,900 military personnel participated in the National Army (TNI) ceremony in Jakarta on October 5. For the Indonesia-Africa Forum in Bali, 18,000 personnel ensured security. In Jakarta, 115,000 personnel were involved for the appointment of President Prabowo Subianto and Vice President Gibbran Rabuming Raka. Operation Structure Brata 2024 saw the deployment of 15,000 personnel to ensure security for the oath-taking ceremony. Additionally, 1,929 personnel were tasked with securing a notable student protest at the Merdeka Palace, organized by the All Indonesian Executive Agency. For the upcoming 2024 Pilkada elections, over 157,654 military personnel were mobilized for security, and 169,369 for regional elections. In response to natural disasters, 237 military personnel were sent to assist communities affected by the Mount Lewotobi eruption. The police deployed 1,994 officers during a large public demonstration in Jakarta.

  • Protests: In October, judges across Indonesia went on strike from October 7 to 11, 2024, to protest stagnant wages, affecting numerous court proceedings nationwide. Labor organizations, including the Indonesian Union (KSPI), planned a strike involving millions of workers to push for a minimum wage increase and the repeal of the omnibus law from October 24 to 31, 2024. Approximately 3,000 Jabodetabek laborers protested in front of the State Palace in Jakarta, demanding wage increases and policy changes.

  • Purge/Replace: In September, president Joko Widodo accepted the resignations of Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anung, Social Minister Tri Rismaharini, Minister for Villages Abdul Halim Iskandar, and Minister of Labor Ida Fauziyah. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) dismissed Tia Rahmania due to irregularities in the legislative election. The People’s Justice Party (PKS) removed Ahmad Heryawan from his position after internal disputes.

  • Raids: In September, the Jakarta Corruption Eradication Commission raided the home of former Eastern Governor Kalimantan, Awaang Faroek Isaac, and properties associated with Abdul Halim Iskandar for alleged corruption. A joint raid on marijuana fields on Mount Semeru’s slopes targeted illegal drug production. Riau authorities conducted a search in Parliament chambers related to an alleged false travel warrant corruption case.

  • Lethal Violence: In November, in North Sumatra, an incident involving 33 soldiers and local civilians led to the death of a resident. In West Sumatra, a police officer shot and killed a colleague.

  • Non-lethal Violence: From September to October, a grenade explosion occurred at the home of Aceh gubernatorial candidate Bustami Hamzah in Indonesia. Vandalism of campaign materials for Jakarta gubernatorial candidate Ridwan Kamil was reported. In North Jakarta, a junior high school teacher was accused of sexually assaulting 11 students.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months.

Dominican Republic

For Dominican Republic, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of July 2024, We have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests: From October to November, operation Camaleón led to the arrest of Hugo Beras, former Director of the National Institute of Transit and Terrestrial Transport, for alleged involvement in a corrupt network defrauding the treasury of 1.3 billion pesos. In Santiago, Andry Josué Vargas Núñez, a deportee from the United States, was taken into custody for alleged participation in multiple murders. The Dominican Army repatriated over 200 Haitians as part of efforts to curb illegal immigration at the border. Dominican authorities extradited French national Stéphane Harry Fanon, who was wanted for drug trafficking and other crimes, fulfilling an international legal request.

  • Censorship: In October, the Inter-American Press Association reported that in the Dominican Republic, there were restrictions on access to public information and control of audiovisual media content impacting press freedom.

  • Corruption: In October, former director of the National Institute of Transit and Land Transport, Hugo Beras, and businessman José Ángel Gómez Canaán faced allegations of corruption and money laundering in a case involving fraudulent contracts worth 1.3 billion pesos, resulting in their pre-trial detention under “Operation Camaleón.” An international drug trafficking and money laundering network was dismantled in Peravia, leading to the trial of eleven individuals. A network within the National Police was discovered to be involved in the illegal theft and sale of ammunition.

  • Legal Actions: In October, operation Camaleón in the Dominican Republic involved the former director of the National Institute of Transit and Land Transport, Hugo Beras, who faced charges related to corruption in traffic and surveillance system contracts, resulting in 18 months of pre-trial detention. The Dominican courts addressed irregularities in the sale of Los Tres Brazos lands by Corde, labeling it an alleged scam involving state land worth billions. The court also sentenced Argenis Contreras González to 20 years for the murder of Professor Yuniol Ramírez.

  • Legal Changes: In October, the promulgation of the new Constitution in the Dominican Republic introduced major constitutional reforms, including restrictions on presidential re-election and strengthening the independence of the Public Prosecutor’s Office. The proposed Fiscal Modernization Law aimed at comprehensive tax reform faced opposition. The Labor Reform project received mixed reactions, while the amendment to the Code of Criminal Procedure aimed to safeguard individual rights by altering the judicial process.

  • Raids: In October, authorities raided the Dominican Federation of Modern Pentathlon due to corruption allegations, leading to the arrest of its president and treasurer. The Attorney General’s Office targeted the National Institute of Land Transit in response to corruption accusations, resulting in the detention of the former director and a businessman. A raid in Santo Domingo Este uncovered a clandestine document forgery center serving illegal foreign nationals, prompting further investigations.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months.

Kosovo

For Kosovo, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, We have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship: In October, journalist Florinda Kelmendi faced obstruction from the chief of staff of the local mayor in North Mitrovica while filming a political arrest. Opposition politicians accused Kosovo’s national broadcaster, RTK, of censorship for not airing an extraordinary parliamentary session, which led to a protest.

  • Cooperation: From September to October, the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia remained at an impasse despite ongoing negotiations over the Ibri Bridge issue, affecting efforts for normalization of relations under EU mediation. Kosovo signed a free trade agreement with EFTA countries to boost economic development and open new markets. Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan visited Kosovo to discuss regional security and emphasized support for dialogue with Serbia. The European Union facilitated dialogue in Brussels between Kosovo and Serbia, involving chief negotiators Besnik Bislimi and Petar Petkovic, as part of efforts to normalize relations. The International Monetary Fund engaged with Kosovo’s Economy Minister Artane Rizvanolli to assess economic developments and sustainability.

  • Corruption: From September to October, Milan Radoicic and his group were charged with terrorism, money laundering, and financing of terrorism following a deadly attack impacting Kosovo’s national security. Former Minister Hoxha’s acquittal in a corruption case and its subsequent appeal continued. Dejona Mihali and others from the Vetevendosje Movement were investigated for corruption in energy contracts. There was alleged embezzlement of over €2 million of public funds by a Kosovo Treasury official, prompting an investigation. The Constitutional Court placed Izedin Bytyqi, a deputy secretary at the Ministry of Environment, under house arrest for suspected misuse of office resulting in a €6 million loss to the national budget. Three Kosovo Serbs were arrested on terrorism charges connected to a fatal attack on police officers in Banjska, and there were allegations of corruption involving senior officials in public tenders.

  • Election Activity: In November, the Central Election Commission in Kosovo announced the list of polling centers for the February 9th parliamentary elections. The Serbian List leader Zlatan Ellek confirmed the party’s involvement in the elections, which could secure 10 reserved minority seats. The Vetevendosje Movement aimed for over 50% in the elections.

  • Legal Actions: From September to October, Milan Radojicic and 44 others were involved in a legal case concerning their alleged roles in a terrorist attack on Banjska, with the Kosovo Special Prosecutor filing charges for crimes such as terrorism and money laundering. The Kosovo Specialised Chambers in The Hague continued the trial against former Kosovo Liberation Army leaders regarding alleged war crimes. Former KEK chief Nagip Krasniqi faced legal proceedings over accusations of abuse of office that allegedly caused a financial loss to the Kosovo Energy Corporation. Former Kosovo Liberation Army leaders Hashim Thaci, Kadri Veseli, Rexhep Selimi, and Jakup Krasniqi were undergoing trial in the Kosovo Specialised Chambers in The Hague, accused of war crimes, with the proceedings attracting numerous witness testimonies. Three Kosovo Serbs, Blagoje Spasojevic, Vladimir Tolic, and Dusan Maksimovic, were charged with terrorism and endangering the constitutional order after a violent attack in Banjska led to a police officer’s death.

  • Security Mobilization: From September to October, NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping mission mobilized enhanced forces in response to escalating tensions in northern Mitrovica. The Kosovo Police and KFOR increased patrols to prevent smuggling in the north. Amid calls for protests by Serbian citizens, Kosovo’s Special Unit positioned near a police station in northern Mitrovica. Security forces in Kosovo were mobilized for border security enforcement due to the movement of Serbian troops near the Kosovo border. Additionally, KFOR, including Croatian and Latvian soldiers, was engaged in routine peacekeeping and surveillance operations along the border with Serbia to ensure regional stability.

  • Protests: In October, protests erupted in northern Mitrovica as Serbian citizens demanded the release of Aleksandar Arsenijevic, leader of ‘Serbian Democracy.’ Education workers protested against the non-payment of September salaries. Technical workers of the Kosovo Parliament and Kosovo Energy Corporation employees staged strikes and protests demanding better wages and working conditions.

  • Purge/Replace: In October, Slovakia closed its liaison office in Kosovo. Kosovo Customs dismissed five officials and demoted two others following an investigation into misconduct.

  • Raids: In October, authorities in Kosovo raided the Ministry of Environment, Spatial Planning and Infrastructure due to allegations of misuse of official office, money laundering, and false reporting of property. Law enforcement conducted raids in northern Mitrovica to shut down an illegal parallel municipality. Police seized bombs and weapons during another raid in northern Mitrovica.

  • Lethal Violence: In September, an armed group led by Milan Radojicic attacked the Kosovo Police in Banjska, resulting in the death of Sergeant Afrim Bulnjak and three Serbian attackers. A violent conflict between the Sekiraqa and Capat families in Pristina’s Aktash neighborhood resulted in one death and five injuries.

  • Non-lethal Violence: From October to November, the head of Peja municipality, Gazmend Mujajeri, was physically attacked by two individuals, leading to their arrest. Former Serbian List leader Goran Rakiq was attacked in northern Mitrovica. A major police operation in Mitrovica led to the arrest of several individuals and the seizure of weapons. Explosive attacks on the Iber-Lepenc water channel in Zubin Potok were condemned as terrorist acts. Police operations in Zubin Potok seized military equipment, while a grenade attack in Zvecan and a knife attack in Ferizaj occurred.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months.