This gives us final Municipality-Level metrics that represent the typical performance across all cohorts.

Then, scatter plot with regression line showing relationship between initial scores (x-axis) and gains (y-axis), with residuals indicating which municipality over/under-performed versus predictions.

Results

black_top_ses

Math

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.21
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.18
## R2 Without drop out 0.3559526
## R2 with drop out 0.3589996
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_math_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -119.673   -8.768   -0.349    8.434  108.192 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)               180.77489    3.51729  51.396  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_math_5th  -0.68169    0.01689 -40.349  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate          12.00428    3.07744   3.901 9.79e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 16.5 on 3201 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.359,  Adjusted R-squared:  0.3586 
## F-statistic: 896.4 on 2 and 3201 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,204 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_math…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  49.2                    192.             0.222
##  2       1100023                  58.4                    189.             0.252
##  3       1100031                  62.1                    194.             0.200
##  4       1100049                  59.3                    193.             0.155
##  5       1100056                  44.0                    207.             0.203
##  6       1100064                  42.2                    204.             0.111
##  7       1100072                  69.0                    177.             0.223
##  8       1100080                  38.6                    195.             0.203
##  9       1100098                  60.9                    206.             0.212
## 10       1100106                  43.7                    193.             0.226
## # ℹ 3,194 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_math_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

Reading

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.17
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.17
## R2 Without drop out 0.2621545
## R2 with drop out 0.2682422
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_leitura_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -108.244   -8.743   -0.045    9.050  105.892 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                  173.80893    3.68688   47.14  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_leitura_5th  -0.64324    0.01982  -32.46  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate             16.04155    3.10857    5.16 2.61e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 16.81 on 3201 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2682, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2678 
## F-statistic: 586.7 on 2 and 3201 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,204 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_leit…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  69.9                    161.             0.222
##  2       1100023                  69.8                    172.             0.252
##  3       1100031                  62.3                    172.             0.200
##  4       1100049                  67.3                    178.             0.155
##  5       1100056                  54.8                    182.             0.203
##  6       1100064                  51.5                    184.             0.111
##  7       1100072                  80.7                    160.             0.223
##  8       1100080                  89.9                    171.             0.203
##  9       1100098                  68.6                    183.             0.212
## 10       1100106                  63.6                    173.             0.226
## # ℹ 3,194 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_leitura_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

black_bottom_ses

Math

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.3
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.11
## R2 Without drop out 0.3466142
## R2 with drop out 0.3507156
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_math_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -72.661  -9.251  -0.510   8.109 104.192 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                           Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)               163.1157     2.8675  56.885  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_math_5th  -0.5872     0.0145 -40.503  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate          -9.4700     2.1216  -4.464 8.34e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 14.51 on 3154 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.3507, Adjusted R-squared:  0.3503 
## F-statistic: 851.8 on 2 and 3154 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,157 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_math…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  58.3                    181.             0.315
##  2       1100072                  68.8                    183.             0.220
##  3       1100080                  58.5                    179.             0.292
##  4       1100098                  61.5                    195.             0.173
##  5       1100130                  55.2                    192.             0.399
##  6       1100148                  63.8                    203.             0.313
##  7       1100262                  63.1                    182.             0.281
##  8       1100296                  77.8                    184.             0.334
##  9       1100320                  51.0                    184.             0.151
## 10       1100338                  59.9                    188.             0.375
## # ℹ 3,147 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_math_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

Reading

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.3
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.15
## R2 Without drop out 0.2813124
## R2 with drop out 0.2813688
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_leitura_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -109.263   -8.411    0.025    8.618   89.068 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                  158.61562    2.99048  53.040   <2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_leitura_5th  -0.56614    0.01682 -33.666   <2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate             -1.04697    2.10527  -0.497    0.619    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 14.39 on 3154 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2814, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2809 
## F-statistic: 617.4 on 2 and 3154 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,157 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_leit…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  71.5                    157.             0.315
##  2       1100072                  87.1                    155.             0.220
##  3       1100080                  67.5                    156.             0.292
##  4       1100098                  72.9                    180.             0.173
##  5       1100130                  75.1                    169.             0.399
##  6       1100148                  71.1                    183.             0.313
##  7       1100262                  81.8                    168.             0.281
##  8       1100296                  81.9                    155.             0.334
##  9       1100320                  65.7                    167.             0.151
## 10       1100338                  63.5                    168.             0.375
## # ℹ 3,147 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_leitura_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

white_top_ses

Math

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.28
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.25
## R2 Without drop out 0.3366747
## R2 with drop out 0.3453524
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_math_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -77.901  -6.621  -0.381   6.134  68.114 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)               132.93820    2.58770  51.373  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_math_5th  -0.41282    0.01125 -36.697  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate          12.99287    2.02036   6.431 1.46e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 11.03 on 3120 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.3454, Adjusted R-squared:  0.3449 
## F-statistic:   823 on 2 and 3120 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,123 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_math…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  47.8                    204.             0.251
##  2       1100023                  59.9                    198.             0.252
##  3       1100031                  38.6                    203.             0.200
##  4       1100049                  51.7                    206.             0.155
##  5       1100056                  46.1                    221.             0.203
##  6       1100064                  42.6                    218.             0.111
##  7       1100072                  79.5                    191.             0.223
##  8       1100080                  43.1                    196.             0.203
##  9       1100098                  48.0                    214.             0.212
## 10       1100106                  47.5                    196.             0.226
## # ℹ 3,113 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_math_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

Reading

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.25
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.23
## R2 Without drop out 0.3055326
## R2 with drop out 0.3154128
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_leitura_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -71.098  -5.131   0.080   4.967  61.075 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                  136.60236    2.35750   57.94  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_leitura_5th  -0.39540    0.01145  -34.53  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate             11.43398    1.70393    6.71  2.3e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 9.385 on 3120 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.3154, Adjusted R-squared:  0.315 
## F-statistic: 718.7 on 2 and 3120 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,123 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_leit…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  59.1                    189.             0.251
##  2       1100023                  74.2                    181.             0.252
##  3       1100031                  57.4                    185.             0.200
##  4       1100049                  65.1                    188.             0.155
##  5       1100056                  58.9                    200.             0.203
##  6       1100064                  55.2                    199.             0.111
##  7       1100072                  91.6                    165.             0.223
##  8       1100080                  87.4                    172.             0.203
##  9       1100098                  66.3                    196.             0.212
## 10       1100106                  64.6                    179.             0.226
## # ℹ 3,113 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_leitura_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

white_bottom_ses

Math

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.44
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.19
## R2 Without drop out 0.2013975
## R2 with drop out 0.2014288
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_math_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -66.589  -7.628  -0.396   7.159  90.977 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)               111.70789    2.63708  42.360   <2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_math_5th  -0.31394    0.01238 -25.366   <2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate          -0.64958    1.84872  -0.351    0.725    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 12.99 on 3142 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2014, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2009 
## F-statistic: 396.3 on 2 and 3142 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,145 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_math…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  45.1                    206.             0.243
##  2       1100072                  55.6                    196.             0.220
##  3       1100080                  65.2                    171.             0.292
##  4       1100098                  55.0                    209.             0.173
##  5       1100130                  58.8                    196.             0.399
##  6       1100148                  64.3                    197.             0.313
##  7       1100262                  45.0                    193.             0.308
##  8       1100296                  45.6                    208.             0.334
##  9       1100320                  54.6                    195.             0.151
## 10       1100338                  51.4                    191.             0.375
## # ℹ 3,135 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_math_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

Reading

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.45
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.22
## R2 Without drop out 0.1509072
## R2 with drop out 0.1538163
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_leitura_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -103.468   -7.253    0.044    7.279   84.824 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                  110.37868    2.63489  41.891  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_leitura_5th  -0.27059    0.01375 -19.683  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate              5.70705    1.73646   3.287  0.00103 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 12.17 on 3142 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1538, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1533 
## F-statistic: 285.6 on 2 and 3142 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,145 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_leit…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  61.6                    184.             0.243
##  2       1100072                  72.4                    179.             0.220
##  3       1100080                  74.1                    155.             0.292
##  4       1100098                  65.2                    189.             0.173
##  5       1100130                  73.3                    178.             0.399
##  6       1100148                  69.1                    178.             0.313
##  7       1100262                  79.5                    167.             0.308
##  8       1100296                  65.1                    186.             0.334
##  9       1100320                  65.6                    176.             0.151
## 10       1100338                  62.3                    176.             0.375
## # ℹ 3,135 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_leitura_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

black_brown_top_ses

Math

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.27
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.28
## R2 Without drop out 0.3784317
## R2 with drop out 0.3926537
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_math_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -83.561  -6.617  -0.470   5.804  77.929 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)               147.76667    2.81534  52.486   <2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_math_5th  -0.51132    0.01276 -40.087   <2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate          17.42232    2.03601   8.557   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 11.19 on 3127 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.3927, Adjusted R-squared:  0.3923 
## F-statistic:  1011 on 2 and 3127 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,130 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_math…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  49.3                    201.             0.251
##  2       1100023                  56.6                    198.             0.252
##  3       1100031                  47.7                    205.             0.200
##  4       1100049                  52.5                    204.             0.155
##  5       1100056                  40.9                    216.             0.203
##  6       1100064                  38.7                    216.             0.111
##  7       1100072                  57.7                    201.             0.223
##  8       1100080                  51.4                    205.             0.203
##  9       1100098                  43.3                    218.             0.212
## 10       1100106                  38.6                    200.             0.226
## # ℹ 3,120 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_math_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

Reading

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.24
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.27
## R2 Without drop out 0.2611636
## R2 with drop out 0.2855907
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_leitura_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -103.493   -5.477   -0.033    5.627   68.628 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                  138.46111    2.85423   48.51   <2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_leitura_5th  -0.43901    0.01446  -30.36   <2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate             19.43117    1.87920   10.34   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 10.43 on 3127 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2856, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2851 
## F-statistic:   625 on 2 and 3127 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,130 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_leit…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  73.9                    170.             0.251
##  2       1100023                  70.2                    182.             0.252
##  3       1100031                  63.1                    186.             0.200
##  4       1100049                  64.6                    187.             0.155
##  5       1100056                  57.5                    192.             0.203
##  6       1100064                  53.1                    196.             0.111
##  7       1100072                  71.0                    181.             0.223
##  8       1100080                  74.8                    185.             0.203
##  9       1100098                  60.3                    197.             0.212
## 10       1100106                  58.9                    182.             0.226
## # ℹ 3,120 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_leitura_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

black_brown_bottom_ses

Math

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.42
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.24
## R2 Without drop out 0.247296
## R2 with drop out 0.2485391
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_math_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -49.703  -6.287  -0.433   5.364  74.317 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)               111.67778    2.43988  45.772   <2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_math_5th  -0.33104    0.01177 -28.126   <2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate           3.33025    1.46398   2.275    0.023 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 10.37 on 3128 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2485, Adjusted R-squared:  0.2481 
## F-statistic: 517.3 on 2 and 3128 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,131 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_math…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  35.9                    208.             0.243
##  2       1100072                  53.3                    201.             0.220
##  3       1100080                  55.0                    179.             0.292
##  4       1100098                  53.9                    207.             0.173
##  5       1100130                  50.8                    201.             0.399
##  6       1100148                  58.6                    201.             0.313
##  7       1100262                  63.3                    180.             0.308
##  8       1100296                  59.3                    195.             0.334
##  9       1100320                  50.1                    194.             0.151
## 10       1100338                  50.8                    197.             0.375
## # ℹ 3,121 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_math_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>

Reading

## Correlation between 5th Grade  and Dropout Rate: -0.43
## Correlation between  Gain and Dropout Rate: 0.29
## R2 Without drop out 0.1753144
## R2 with drop out 0.1889349

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = avg_municipality_gain ~ avg_municipality_leitura_5th + 
##     avg_drop_out_rate, data = municipality_averages)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -44.956  -5.615   0.126   5.639  56.658 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                  104.61838    2.37767  44.000  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_municipality_leitura_5th  -0.25839    0.01273 -20.297  < 2e-16 ***
## avg_drop_out_rate              9.60733    1.32557   7.248 5.32e-13 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 9.331 on 3128 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1889, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1884 
## F-statistic: 364.3 on 2 and 3128 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
## # A tibble: 3,131 × 6
##    COD_MUNICIPIO avg_municipality_gain avg_municipality_leit…¹ avg_drop_out_rate
##            <int>                 <dbl>                   <dbl>             <dbl>
##  1       1100015                  51.5                    185.             0.243
##  2       1100072                  70.7                    181.             0.220
##  3       1100080                  65.6                    160.             0.292
##  4       1100098                  67.2                    188.             0.173
##  5       1100130                  65.6                    179.             0.399
##  6       1100148                  70.3                    182.             0.313
##  7       1100262                  82.4                    164.             0.308
##  8       1100296                  61.9                    185.             0.334
##  9       1100320                  66.6                    175.             0.151
## 10       1100338                  64.6                    178.             0.375
## # ℹ 3,121 more rows
## # ℹ abbreviated name: ¹​avg_municipality_leitura_5th
## # ℹ 2 more variables: predicted_gain <dbl>, residuals <dbl>