Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Paraguay, Albania, Colombia, Ukraine, Serbia, Georgia, Philippines, Turkey, El Salvador, Malaysia, Uzbekistan, India, Kazakhstan, and Pakistan. We are forecasting major events for Turkey, El Salvador, Malaysia, and Pakistan.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

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Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Paraguay

Paraguay’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

Albania

For Albania, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Arrests in September, October and November: A joint operation involving Italian, Albanian, Swiss, and Polish authorities resulted in the arrest of 61 members of a criminal organization engaged in cocaine trafficking. Additionally, an anti-drug operation in Tirana led to the arrest of 24 individuals for distributing narcotics near schools and nightclubs. Furthermore, a fraud scheme involving fake diplomas led to the arrest of two Italian managers of Wisdom University in Tirana, implicating Albanian university officials in corruption scandals. In October, events in Albania included the arrest of former president Ilir Meta by the Special Prosecutor Against Corruption and Organized Crime on charges of money laundering, passive corruption, and property default. Former Socialist Party delegate Jurgis Cyrbja was also arrested for suspected connections with criminal gangs and abuse of office. Additionally, a protest organized by the opposition led to arrests for blocking transportation routes. There were also significant arrests related to drug trafficking in Korca and a large-scale bust of an immigration trafficking network involving international collaboration. In November, several anti-drug operations in Tirana and other areas in Albania led to arrests connected to cocaine trafficking networks.

• Censorship in October and November: Journalists in Albania were denied access by the Republican Guard while covering parliamentary developments on October 17th, 2024. Additionally, Democratic Party MPs expressed concerns over the use of indictments to silence journalists. Opposition MPs were also barred from entering the Assembly Hall by security forces. In November, efforts in Albania to combat strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAPPs) highlighted systemic legal pressures on journalists, leading to calls for EU-aligned legal reforms. Discussions emerged around controlling social media platforms like TikTok and Snapchat, with public opinion polls showing support for potential censorship. Additionally, the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor (SPAK) in Albania called attention to two journalists for alleged links with criminal organizations, a move that could have implications for media freedom and journalistic independence.

• Cooperation in September and October: Albania signed the Joint Declaration of Support for the Reconstruction of Ukraine, aligning with over 30 other countries in international rebuilding efforts. The country received approval from the EU to begin independent membership negotiations, having met criteria for the first chapters on fundamental rights. Albania also met with a US general to enhance NATO and defense ties. In October, Albania officially opened negotiations on the first group of chapters for its European Union membership at the Intergovernmental Conference. The Prime Minister of Albania met with the Turkish President during a state visit to discuss strengthening bilateral relations with agreements in agriculture and education. Additionally, the United Kingdom and Albania agreed to enhance their partnership in combating organized crime and illegal migration. The EU-Albania Stabilisation and Association Commission held its 18th meeting in Tirana, focusing on the rule of law, media freedom, and the fight against crime and corruption as key priorities.

• Corruption in September and October: There were reports of a major fraud scheme linked to the University College “Wisdom” in Tirana, where false diplomas were issued. Additionally, five municipal employees in Rrogozhina were imprisoned for misusing reconstruction funds. Former Prime Minister Sali Berisha was indicted for passive corruption related to property privatization. In October, the Durres prosecution arrested four businessmen in connection with a VAT fraud scheme that reportedly caused a $127 million loss to the state. Former Albanian President Ilir Meta was arrested on charges of money laundering and passive corruption. Additionally, Jurgis Cyrbja, a former Socialist Party President, faced arrest due to allegations of election corruption and support for criminal activities.

• Defamation Cases in September: A Democratic Party MP in Albania was sentenced to one year in prison for false claims in a defamation case, marking the first conviction of a politician for slander in the country. This event generated notable media attention and discussion.

• Election Activity in September: Vangel Tavo was officially given the mandate as mayor of Himara by the Central Election Commission after winning local elections held on August 4th. The upcoming 2025 parliamentary elections will include the diaspora vote for the first time, with preparations for Albanian migrants to vote via mail underway. Additionally, the High Judicial Council selected 8 new members for the Judicial Electoral College to manage election process complaints. Prime Minister Edi Rama and the Socialist Party have introduced new district leaders for the 2025 election campaign, and the Freedom Party President announced his candidacy for the elections in Tirana while unveiling the party’s economic program.

• Legal Actions in September and November: Former Albanian Prime Minister Sali Berisha was indicted by the Special Prosecutor for corruption. Democratic Party MP Ervin Salianji received a one-year prison sentence for false reporting in the Babale file. Additionally, former Himara Mayor George Goro was charged with abuse of office, and investigations into the sale of false diplomas by Wisdom College led to criminal proceedings involving several Italian nationals. In November, the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor in Albania issued 21 warrants against individuals allegedly linked to a criminal organization involved in cocaine trafficking. The Special Court sentenced the former Environment Minister and others to prison for corruption related to the Elbasan incinerator.

• Security Mobilization in October: Approximately 1,500 police officers were mobilized in Tirana to ensure security during an opposition protest. During Turkish President Erdogan’s visit to Tirana, over 700 police forces were deployed, resulting in roadblocks and increased security protocols in the city. The National Civil Protection Agency and the Armed Forces responded to severe weather conditions in the Vlora region, providing support and ensuring the safety of citizens.

• Protests in October and November: Protests in Albania included opposition supporters in Tirana demanding free elections. Nationwide demonstrations involved road blockages and confrontations with police over accusations of governmental corruption. Pensioners protested for higher pensions, while miners demanded representation and better working conditions; opposition MPs also demonstrated in Strasbourg to gather international support against the Albanian government. In November, in Tirana, the Democratic Party organized protests against the government, resulting in clashes with police and numerous arrests.

• Purge/Replace in September: The Independent Qualification Commission dismissed multiple prosecutors in Albania as part of a vetting process. The Interior Minister announced changes in the police leadership following the resignation of the General Director, and 22 police officers were suspended during an investigation into corruption.

• Lethal Violence in October and November: In Albania, a shooting in Shkodra resulted in the deaths of three individuals and injuries to another was believed to be a mafia-related incident. In November, recent events in Albania included the Dobrac massacre in Shkodra on October 30th, which involved a mafia assassination resulting in the deaths of four people.

• Non-lethal Violence in September and October: Acts of violence took place in the Albanian Parliament, where opposition deputies engaged in destructive behavior, resulting in property damage.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Arrests in Q1 2025, Q2 2025 and Q4 2024, and Legal Actions in Q1 2025 and Q2 2025.

Colombia

Colombia’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

Ukraine

For Ukraine, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in September and October: The National Coordination Center for Cybersecurity in Ukraine advised restricting the use of the Telegram app in government settings due to its use by Russian forces to spread disinformation. Later, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada banned the use of Telegram for officials on work devices due to national security concerns. Ukrainian camps banned Russian POWs from making phone calls, asserting compliance with the Geneva Conventions, while media outlets linked to Odessa businessman Adnan Kiwan were temporarily shut down. Ukrainska Pravda reported experiencing “systematic pressure” from the Ukrainian President’s Office, affecting press access The Ukrainian government’s support for a state-run TV telethon was criticized by the European Commission for a lack of media pluralism.

• Disaster in September: Floods in Central Europe disrupted rail traffic to and from Ukraine, leading to the temporary cancellation of several train routes. An earthquake originating in Romania was felt in Ukraine, while massive forest fires in Kharkiv’s Izuma region destroyed 1,620 acres of forest and damaged 350 homes.

• Purge/Replace in September: A significant government reshuffle occurred in Ukraine, involving key resignations and new appointments, including the resignations of the Foreign Minister, Strategic Industries Minister, and several Deputy Prime Ministers, as well as mass ministerial replacements approved by the Verkhovna Rada. Additionally, the dismissal of the Deputy Head of the Presidential Office and the Head of the state grid operator signaled a broader strategic realignment aimed at improving international political engagement and addressing energy security. Leadership changes in the Ministry of Defense and Strategic Development also took place in response to ammunition supply issues.

• Raids in October: Large-scale raids were conducted by TCC staff across multiple Ukrainian cities, including Kiev and Lviv, to verify the military records of men in public spaces as part of the Mobilization Act. The National Police of Ukraine carried out urgent searches at a construction company involved in state infrastructure repairs to address potential misconduct.

Forecasting

Due to the impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine’s data and the interruption of historical patterns that our models rely on to make predictions, we do not publish forecasts for Ukraine.

Serbia

For Serbia, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in October: In Serbia, there was significant engagement by environmental organizations, politicians, and international parties around a failed parliamentary attempt to pass a law banning mining. Additionally, protests occurred against the exploratory mining activities by Apollo Mineral Limited near Niš, with activists advocating for a halt to drilling operations due to environmental concerns. Furthermore, the group “Women for Change” conducted a silent performance in Aleksandrovac against femicide.

• Arrests in November: In Serbia, multiple significant arrests were made in connection with a protest in Novi Sad related to the demolition of a railway station canopy that resulted in 14 deaths. Additionally, a large-scale operation targeting the “Balkan Cartel” led to the arrest of eight individuals in various Serbian cities, suspected of involvement in international cocaine smuggling. Arrests of local activists occurred in Belgrade during protests against the demolition of the historic Old Sava Bridge, reflecting ongoing disputes over infrastructure changes.

• Censorship in October: The Independent Association of Journalists of Vojvodina highlighted pressures on journalists, pointing to media suppression. Additionally, a printing house in Stara Pazova refused to publish a book critical of the president, reflecting censorship issues. Serbia also faced EU pressure to ban RT, raising concerns about international influence on media freedom. Furthermore, journalists in Vranje experienced selective exclusion from a public event, indicating discriminatory media practices.

• Cooperation in October: There was ongoing dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina facilitated by the EU to normalize relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Additionally, Serbia signed 11 agreements with Turkey to enhance cooperation in various fields and announced a forthcoming energy agreement with the United States to bolster its electricity supply and attract American investments. Serbia also held discussions with China to increase economic cooperation.

• Corruption in September, October and November: In Serbia, a budget rebalancing case involved the Mayor of Belgrade in allegations of directing 74 million euros to private transport companies instead of buying new buses. Additionally, the former vice-president of the Serbian List and others were indicted for crimes related to a violent incident in Banjska by the Kosovo Special Prosecutor’s Office. In October, a major corruption event in Serbia involved the illegal trade in oil derivatives, leading to the arrest of 17 people and uncovering a network smuggling fuel from North Macedonia. The Radio and Television of Serbia was accused of spending 3. 5 billion dinars (30 million euros) improperly on external productions. Additionally, a high-profile investigation dubbed “Dirty Badge” resulted in the arrest of nine individuals, including police and communal militia members, for abuse of power and influence peddling. In November, a tragic incident at the Novi Sad railway station, which resulted in 14 deaths, revealed corruption allegations involving secret contracts and non-existent permits in the construction sector.

• Defamation Cases in September: There were reports of cases involving Andrej Vučić against journalist Jelena Bulajić, and Belgrade Mayor Aleksandar Šapić against the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network and journalist Marko Vidojković. Serbian Ambassador Jelena Milić also initiated a defamation procedure against Savo Manojlović for statements made about her conduct.

• Legal Actions: In November, an investigation was launched following the collapse of part of the Novi Sad Railway Station in Serbia, resulting in the death of 15 people. The Higher Public Prosecutor’s Office is questioning individuals, including high-ranking officials. The lawsuit filed by Radivoje Jovović against “Večernje Novosti” for defamation focuses on allegations of extremism linked to ethnic tensions. Arrests and a trial for Belgrade police inspectors accused of abuse of official position and violence against civilians are ongoing.

• Legal Changes in October: The Serbian Parliament rejected an opposition proposal to ban lithium and boron mining, allowing projects with companies such as Rio Tinto to proceed. Proposed amendments to Serbia’s Criminal Code were criticized for potentially threatening human rights. Additionally, a draft law was adopted to provide social benefits to residents of the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija, though it faced criticism for potentially undermining EU dialogue agreements.

• State of Emergency in September: Serbia implemented measures including demands for free elections and the return of Serbian officials to their positions in response to the police seizure of Serbian institutions in northern Kosovo. Additionally, a multi-day blockade of administrative crossings towards Kosovo and Metohija was organized to protest the control of Kosovo police over Serbian institutions, affecting movement between central Serbia, Montenegro, and the region. Serbian institutions in northern Kosovo have been blocked for several weeks, causing employee concerns about returning to work amidst rising tensions.

• Security Mobilization in November: In Serbia, there was a large-scale police mobilization in Novi Sad, involving heavy police forces at key locations before a citizens’ protest following a tragic accident. Additionally, the demolition of the Old Sava Bridge in Belgrade was heavily guarded by special police forces who dismantled a blockade by activists. Furthermore, the Serbian Defense Ministry reported that Kosovo Police personnel crossed the administrative boundary into Serbia, which prompted calls for international intervention. Lastly, a strong police presence, including claims of snipers, was noted during the voting on the budget in the National Assembly.

• Protests in October and November: In Serbia, a large-scale protest against lithium mining was organized by environmental organizations and supported by opposition parties and citizens in locations including Loznica and Preljina. Educators across Serbia protested for better salaries and working conditions. Farmers in Serbia staged protests against the government’s plan to reduce subsidies for certified seeds. Additionally, gatherings were held in Belgrade against the demolition of the Old Sava Bridge and in Novi Beograd against the demolition of Hotel Yugoslavia, with participants expressing concerns over urban redevelopment plans. In November, protests occurred following the Novi Sad Railway Station canopy collapse, which resulted in 14 deaths.

• Purge/Replace in October and November: The Serbian Prime Minister announced a reconstruction of the government, indicating that some underperforming ministers would be replaced. The President recalled the head of Serbia’s mission to the United Nations, suggesting potential diplomatic changes. Two Members of Parliament left the Party of Freedom and Justice, signaling fragmentation within the opposition. In November, the Novi Sad railway station canopy led to the resignation of Goran Vesić, the Minister of Construction, Transport, and Infrastructure, and Tomislav Momirović, the Minister of Internal and Foreign Trade. Additionally, there were dismissals within the Serbian Railway Infrastructure and Radio Television Vojvodina, reflecting administrative changes in response to the tragedy.

• Non-lethal Violence: In November, protests in Serbia resulted in violent clashes between police and demonstrators in Belgrade, with injuries and arrests reported. Activists and an MP were attacked during protests against the demolition of the Old Sava Bridge in Belgrade. Several journalists covering anti-government protests in Serbia were also attacked, leading to condemnation from journalist associations.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Legal Actions in Q2 2025.

Georgia

For Georgia, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in September, October and November: Local youth in the Ozurgeti and Ambrolauri municipalities launched an environmental activism campaign supported by the European Union and the Caucasus Environmental Non-governmental Network to raise awareness about river pollution. Additionally, a group of Georgian NGOs urged the European Union to reconsider Georgia’s visa-free regime. In October, large-scale protests occurred in response to the ‘Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence,’ leading to legal proceedings in the Constitutional Court. Additionally, four opposition parties in Georgia sent a letter to EU Foreign Ministers, urging them to declare the country’s parliamentary elections illegitimate.

• Censorship in September: The election advertising clip of the coalition “Strong Georgia” was censored by the state-run TV company “Imedi.”

• Cooperate in September and November: Recent events included President Salome Zurabishvili’s mediation efforts for a political coalition between the “Strong Georgia” and “Gakharia for Georgia” parties, although no agreement was reached. Georgia and Armenia elevated their bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership during an official visit by the Armenian Prime Minister. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed military-technical cooperation with the occupied Tskhinvali region. In November, the Georgian Prime Minister met with the Slovak Prime Minister at the European Political Union Summit to discuss Georgia’s EU integration. The European Union and USAID collaborated on development projects in the Kakheti region. UN Women Georgia and the Eastern European Center for Multiparty Democracy launched the Women’s Leadership Academy to train women in politics.

• Corruption in September and October:The United States Treasury Department imposed sanctions on individuals associated with undisclosed corrupt activities. Additionally, accusations were made against Transparency International Georgia and the Choose Europe organization for allegedly engaging in pre-election campaigning. In October, there were reports of the misuse of administrative resources by the ruling party during the parliamentary election campaign, and the Prosecutor’s Office initiated investigations into alleged election fraud following multiple appeals. Additionally, a special operation in Tbilisi resulted in the arrest of 14 individuals involved in fraud and extortion targeting foreign citizens.

• Coup in November: President Salome Zurabishvili declared the Georgian Parliament session unconstitutional due to alleged massive election fraud. This development raised concerns about the legitimacy of the parliamentary proceedings in Georgia.

• Disaster in September: A fire in the Borjomi Valley forest prompted intensive firefighting efforts. Georgia experienced a significant increase in whooping cough cases, affecting even vaccinated individuals.

• Election Activity in September, October and November: A pre-electoral delegation from PACE concluded a visit to Georgia to assess preparations for the upcoming parliamentary elections in October 2024. Several parties, including “Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia,” “Strong Georgia,” and “Gakharia - for Georgia,” unveiled their election lists, outlining their political goals. In October, parliamentary elections in Georgia were closely monitored by international observers. Preliminary results reported by the Central Election Commission showed the Georgian Dream Democratic Georgia party leading with over 53% of the votes. Concerns were raised by the European Union and others about intimidation related to the elections. Voter turnout reached 58.94%. In November, the Central Election Commission of Georgia confirmed the parliamentary election results, reporting that the ruling party, Georgian Dream, won 53.93% of the votes. The Parliament scheduled presidential elections for December 14, 2024, with the inauguration to follow on December 29. Allegations of election rigging led to public demonstrations.

• Election Irregularities in September, October and November: Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze accused President Zurabishvili of violating the constitution by not maintaining neutrality during the pre-election period. Additionally, the State Department refuted claims of Russian military intelligence interfering in Georgia’s elections as “absolutely false.” The October elections were marred by allegations of ballot stuffing and electoral fraud. Concerns were also raised over voter intimidation, vote-buying, and interference by the US and Western embassies. In November, events in Georgia centered around allegations of electoral fraud and irregularities during the parliamentary elections, and the legitimacy of the election results were questioned by various international leaders. These issues led to the withdrawal of major opposition parties from the parliamentary process.

• Legal Changes in September: In Georgia, the adoption of the “Family Values and Protection of Minors” legislative package and the “Transparency of Foreign Influence Law” faced criticism from international bodies over concerns related to human rights and individual freedoms.

• State of Emergency in November: The Parliament of Georgia declared a state of emergency with a yellow security level indefinitely starting on November 26.

• Security Mobilization in October: In Georgia, additional security forces were deployed in the Gali region ahead of the October 26 parliamentary elections due to concerns about election-related violence

• Protests in October and November: Tens of thousands of Georgians participated in the “Georgia Chooses the European Union” march. Students from Tbilisi State University led a march towards the Parliament to protest against what they claim were rigged elections. In response to unpopular election results, protesters gathered near the Parliament to demand accountability following accusations of rigging and voter manipulation. In November, protests against the elections continued and were countered with police interventions.

• Raids in October: Police operations in Tbilisi led to the arrest of 14 individuals across five nightclubs. Raids were conducted on multiple organizations, including the Atlantic Council, just days before Georgia’s elections.

• Non-lethal Violence in October: The reported events in Georgia included tensions and incidents at various polling stations.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Raids in Q1 2025, and Lethal Violence in Q1 2025.

Philippines

For Philippines, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in September and October:Volunteers collected over 350,000 kilograms of trash during International Coastal Cleanup Day, supported by both government and community efforts. Advocates launched campaigns against the expansion of a coal-fired power plant near the Tañon Strait, and conservationists raised alarms over illegal encroachments in the Upper Marikina River Basin Protected Landscape. In October, the Pambansang Lakas ng Kilusang Mamamalakaya ng Pilipinas opposed ongoing reclamation projects in Cavite, citing environmental and socioeconomic concerns for fishermen. Protesters, led by the Asian Peoples’ Movement, launched an International Peoples’ Tribunal against the IMF and World Bank, critiquing their roles in inequality. Lastly, Ecowaste Coalition raised concerns about high lead levels found in reusable water bottles in Metro Manila, calling for stricter regulations to ensure consumer safety.

• Arrests in September: The former mayor of Bamban, Tarlac, was extradited to face charges linked to human trafficking and illegal gaming. Leaders of transport groups in Bacolod City were detained while protesting against a transportation modernization program.

• Cooperation in November: Senior enlisted personnel from ASEAN Armies participated in an annual meeting hosted by the Philippine Army to foster military cooperation among ASEAN states. The Philippine House of Representatives launched the “Tabang Bikol, Tindog Oragon” relief initiative to assist 150,000 Bicol residents affected by typhoons. Additionally, the Philippines signed the General Security of Military Information Agreement with the United States to improve classified information sharing, and held a meeting with the European Union to discuss maritime cooperation in the West Philippine Sea.

• Corruption in September: Several events in the Philippines included scrutiny of Vice President Sara Duterte regarding potential misuse of confidential funds and the arrest of former Budget Undersecretary Lloyd Christopher Lao in connection with the Pharmally scandal. Dismissed Bamban Mayor Alice Guo was charged with human trafficking and money laundering, while televangelist Apollo Quiboloy faced charges from the US Department of Justice for sex trafficking. Additionally, former Cebu City police chief Royina Garma was implicated in a bribery scheme linked to illegal gambling operations.

• Disaster in September, October and November: Tropical Storm Enteng caused significant damage in the Philippines, resulting in at least 20 deaths, alongside massive agricultural and infrastructure losses, widespread flooding, and landslides. Typhoon Julian prompted evacuations in Northern Luzon. Increased seismic activity at Mount Kanlaon and Taal Volcano led evacuations due to hazardous emissions, while a mpox outbreak prompted public health concernsin Metro Manila and CALABARZON. Additionally, earthquakes, including a magnitude 5.3 tremor in Quezon, added stress to regions already facing weather-related challenges. In October, severe Tropical Storm Kristine resulted in a death toll of 145 people and over 2 million affected across multiple regions in the Philippines, including Luzon. Super Typhoon Julian caused infrastructure damage worth over P934 million and impacted 242,973 people in Northern Luzon. Typhoon Leon evolved into a super typhoon, affecting areas like Batanes with its intense winds. A rise in dengue cases presented an ongoing public health concern in the Philippines. In November, the Philippines experienced a series of natural disasters, including Super Typhoon Pepito, which caused widespread destruction, significant flooding, and led to the evacuation of over 255,000 individuals. Severe Tropical Storm Kristine notably affected Batangas province with flooding and landslides resulting in at least 19 casualties. Typhoons Nika and Ofel also caused significant damage in Northern Luzon, impacting over 419,900 people and leading to large-scale evacuations. Additionally, continuous ash emissions from Kanlaon Volcano resulted in substantial agricultural damage and health concerns, while moderate earthquakes, including a magnitude 5. 7 tremor in Tarlac, were reported but caused only minor damage.

• Election Activity in September and October: The Commission on Elections (Comelec) in the Philippines reported over 5. 8 million new voter registrations as of August 31, 2023, ahead of the 2025 midterm elections. Former senator Francis Pangilinan announced his candidacy for the Senate, and former vice president Leni Robredo declared her intention to run for mayor of Naga City in the upcoming elections. In October, the filing of candidacies for the 2025 elections in the Philippines saw the involvement of notable figures such as former President Rodrigo Duterte, former Manila City Mayor Isko Moreno, and several former senators and officials, indicating significant political activity on both local and national levels. Additionally, former Sen. Gregorio Honasan and others announced intentions to seek electoral comebacks.

• Election Irregularities in November: Recent events in the Philippines include a push to postpone the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) parliamentary elections from 2025 to 2026 due to a Supreme Court ruling, with support from local leaders and the Office of the Special Assistant to the President.

• Legal Actions in October and November: Recent events in the Philippines included a Senate probe into the previous administration’s anti-drug campaign, with the former president accepting full responsibility amid allegations of crimes against humanity. Apollo Quiboloy testified before a Senate committee concerning allegations of human trafficking and sexual abuse. The Sandiganbayan acquitted a former senator and others in a plunder case involving pork barrel funds. In November, vice President Sara Duterte faced multiple legal challenges, including an impeachment complaint and criminal investigations, following her admission of ordering an assassination attempt on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. 

• Security Mobilization in October and November: A large-scale mobilization of over 31,900 police personnel was carried out across the Philippines to ensure public safety during the Undas observance. A joint military exercise, “Kamandag,” was conducted in the northern and western parts of the Philippines with participation from American and Filipino marines, focusing on regional defense tactics. Heightened security alerts were implemented by police forces during the filing of certificates of candidacy for elections. The Philippine National Police deployed 4,908 officers for disaster preparedness ahead of Super Typhoon Ofel.

• Raids in November: The Philippine National Police Anti-Cybercrime Group raided a gaming operator hub in Manila to counter cybercriminal activities, revealing cryptocurrency and scam operations. The Bureau of Customs seized P1.94 billion worth of dried tobacco and counterfeit goods in Bulacan. Additionally, the Bureau of Internal Revenue exposed P8.54 billion in tax liabilities from illicit cigarette manufacturers in Bulacan and Valenzuela City.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months.

Turkey

For Turkey, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in October: Human rights organizations in Diyarbakir held a joint press statement demanding an end to rights violations in Turkish prisons. Protests occurred across Turkey in response to the murders of two women, with participants using the slogan “women’s murders are political” to demand action against gender-based violence.

• Arrests in November: In Istanbul, police arrested 150 suspects in a large-scale operation against online drug traffickers. The Esenyurt Mayor was arrested on charges over a ten-year period, and the former AKUT President was apprehended for allegedly conspiring against the High Election Board. In addition, several arrests were made in connection to PKK/KCK terrorist activities, as well as members of the DEM Party being taken into custody over accusations related to inciting unrest.

• Censorship in October and November: The Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTÜK) revoked the broadcasting license of Open Radio in Turkey, and the Ankara 1st Criminal Judgeship of Peace blocked access to the social media application Discord following its alleged non-cooperation with security units. Additionally, RTÜK imposed a gag order on reporting a terrorist attack at the TuSAS facility in Ankara. The Antalya Governorate banned the screening of a documentary at the Antalya Golden Orange Film Festival, and journalists from People’s TV were removed from recording a Koran course in İzmir. In November, the Radio and Television Oversight (RTÜK) imposed fines and potential access barriers on broadcasters like Decision daily and Sputnik Turkey for unauthorized broadcasting without licenses. Journalists faced censorship as many were sentenced for cases related to freedom of expression and press. Various Turkish governors banned or restricted public demonstrations and media activities, including actions set for international advocacy days.

• Corruption in September: In Turkey, a large-scale investigation into forex fraud in Antalya led to the detention of 133 suspects accused of running a shell company offering fake counseling services. A crackdown on financial crime organizations resulted in 160 arrests for activities such as loan sharking and fraud. Additionally, an asset freeze was imposed on 16 individuals for allegedly financing terrorist organizations, following international requests.

• Defamation Cases in November: There were reports of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s lawsuit against former CHP President Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who faced significant legal consequences for alleged insults and defamation. Additionally, legal proceedings involved other individuals facing defamation charges.

• Legal Actions in September and November: The February 6, 2023 earthquakes in Turkey led to significant legal actions against contractors. Additionally, the trial concerning the Soma mining disaster,continues with challenges regarding expert witness testimonies. In November, president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pursued multiple lawsuits against former CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu for defamation and insults. The Yenidoğan Gang trial at the Bakırköy 22nd Heavy Penal Court included 47 defendants charged with misconduct leading to the deaths of multiple newborns in private hospitals. Tunceli Mayor Cevdet Konak was sentenced to 6 years and 3 months for affiliation with the PKK/KCK armed terror organization by the Tunceli Criminal Court.

• Protests in October and November: Workers in Turkey gathered in Ankara to protest for improved tax justice and living conditions, and Fernas Mining Workers marched from Soma to Ankara, protesting against low wages and inadequate safety measures. Women’s organizations held protests in several cities against gender-based violence. Additionally, workers at multiple unions, including those at Sarar, carried out strikes demanding better wages and working conditions. In November, there were reports of protests by miners in Ankara’s Nallıhan district against the privatization of the Çayırhan Termik plant. The arrest and replacement of certain municipal mayors with government-appointed trustees sparked protests across various cities. Additionally, strikes took place in Izmir after failed public contract negotiations, while gatherings occurred in Amasya and other cities to protest violence against women on an international awareness day.

• Purge/Replace in September: There were reports of a significant wave of resignations from the Welfare Party in Şanlıurfa after the departure of a prominent Metropolitan Mayor. Moreover, a governmental reshuffle involved replacing 12 governors throughout the country. Additionally, 41 members of the İYİ Party’s Executive Board resigned after a member MP stepped down, reflecting potential internal reorganization.

• Raids in October: A massive anti-narcotics operation in Istanbul led to raids in several districts, resulting in the seizure of 3. 5 tons of methamphetamine. A countrywide operation involved the arrest of 91 suspects across six counties, targeting organized crime groups under the operation names “Kuyu-34” and “Kuyu-35.” Concurrent raids at 31 locations across various cities were conducted to dismantle trafficking and organized crime networks.

• Non-lethal Violence in October: There was a terrorist attack at the Turkish Aviation and Space Industry A.Ş. facility in Ankara, carried out by PKK members, which resulted in 22 injuries.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted an increase in reporting Non-lethal Violence in Q1 2025.

We have not yet seen a spike in reporting on Non-lethal Violence in Q1 2025. Our standard models are still predicting an increase in reporting on Non-lethal Violence in Q1 2025.

Our standard models are predicting a jump in reporting on Lethal Violence in Q2 2025.

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Legal Actions in Q4 2024.

El Salvador

For El Salvador, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of July 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in November: Activists from the National Table Against Metal Mining in El Salvador protested against the President’s intention to reverse the country’s ban on metal mining. Volunteers from the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources, along with local organizations, engaged in environmental clean-up activities at Lake Ilopango and El Flor beach. Additionally, the REVERDES movement supported local protests against the environmental impact of Volcano Energy’s projects in the canton Cuntan.

• Censorship in September: Reports indicated that several dozen Salvadoran reporters and journalists were targeted with Pegasus spyware. Additionally, the government used tactics like financial audits and manipulation of advertising allocations to suppress critical media and independent journalism. The Association of Journalists of El Salvador reported that 19 journalists were blocked on social media by government institutions or officials.

• State of Emergency in October and November: The Legislative Assembly of El Salvador extended the emergency regime for 30 more days, marking the 31st such extension and continuing the suspension of certain civil liberties. In November, a state of emergency was declared in El Salvador due to Tropical Storm Sara and the proximity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in heavy rains and storms in various regions. The U.S. State Department lowered the travel alert level for El Salvador, reflecting perceived improvements in security despite ongoing concerns regarding arrests under the emergency regime.

• Security Mobilization in October: In the San Marcos district of El Salvador, the government deployed 2,000 soldiers and 500 police officers following intelligence reports of gang regrouping. Additionally, a military siege was conducted in the October 10th colony with extensive deployment of the National Civil Police and Armed Forces in response to gang activities.

• Protests in October: Teachers and school principals protested in San Salvador on October 6 against the exclusion of a salary scale for education in the 2025 budget. Municipal workers highlighted issues such as dismissals and salary arrears in a protest on October 27. On October 19, health workers and unions marched to defend a salary scale.

• Purge/Replace in October: The Supreme Court of Justice in El Salvador removed Judge Edelmira Violeta Flores Orellana. In the education sector, several educators, including the director of the National Institute of Usulután, were dismissed amidst public criticism of government policies. Additionally, the Ministry of Education’s dismissal of a teacher and union leader from the Salvadoran Magisterial Front led to accusations of political motivation due to his criticism of the administration.

• Lethal Violence in October: Multiple instances of femicide were reported in El Salvador.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Lethal Violence in Q1 2025.

Our shock models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months.

Malaysia

For Malaysia, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Corruption in November: The 1MDB scandal in Malaysia continued to unfold with court proceedings revealing the misappropriation of US$13 million by Jho Low and an associate, and ongoing legal actions concerning Najib Razak’s involvement in diverting funds. The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) investigated significant investment losses in FashionValet Sdn Bhd, linked to Khazanah Nasional Bhd and Permodalan Nasional Bhd, due to allegations of misappropriated funds. Kinabatangan MP and his wife were ordered to present a defense for corruption charges involving RM2.8 million following an appeal. The MACC also arrested two former general managers over suspected corruption in a RM60 million fertiliser procurement case, marking a crackdown on alleged misconduct within the agricultural sector.

• State of Emergency in September: A state of emergency in Malaysia was declared due to a monkeypox (mpox) outbreak.

• Raids in October: Investigations into GISB Holdings Sdn Bhd in Malaysia led to raids on 20 charity homes, rescuing 662 children and freezing 206 accounts.Police dismantled several drug trafficking syndicates in the Klang Valley and Johor, confiscating drugs valued at over RM24 million, while the Royal Malaysian Customs Department seized luxury vehicles and other commodities worth RM30.4 million at Port Klang.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted an increase in reporting Civic Activism in Q1 2025 and Q4 2024.

We did not see a spike in reporting on Civic Activism in Q4 2024. Our standard models are still predicting an increase in reporting on Civic Activism in Q1 2025.

Our shock models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months.

Uzbekistan

For Uzbekistan, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Arrests in November: In the Tashkent region, the deputy khokim of Chirchik city was detained for accepting a $1 million bribe in a land sale scheme. Tursuntash Kadirova was arrested in Turkey and extradited to Uzbekistan on human trafficking charges. The State Security Service detained individuals in Tashkent who were planning to join the Islamic State.

• Censorship in September, October and November: The Freedom of Religion and Religious Organizations Act in Uzbekistan imposed strict control over religious activities and the dissemination of religious materials. In November, uzbek authorities implemented mandatory censorship on audio-visual materials intended for media distribution, requiring an “intellectual examination” before broadcasting.

• Cooperation in September: Uzbekistan and Germany held significant talks in Samarkand, leading to a Joint Declaration and the signing of multiple bilateral documents. Uzbekistan also signed a memorandum of understanding with the US on critical minerals, enhancing their strategic partnership in mineral resource management. Additionally, an agreement with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was announced to implement $4 billion in infrastructure projects. Bilateral security cooperation discussions took place between Uzbekistan and Turkey, focusing on counter-terrorism, illegal migration, and organized crime.

• Election Activity in October: Elections were held in Uzbekistan on October 27 for deputies of the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis and local councils, with a voter turnout of 74.7% reported by the Central Election Commission. Early voting occurred from October 16 to 23, marking a first for the nation. Diplomatic missions facilitated the participation of Uzbek citizens abroad by establishing 57 polling stations in 40 foreign countries.

• Purge/Replace in November: The Chairman of the State Security Service was dismissed in connection to an attempted assassination case. The governor of Samarkand region was relieved of his duties, and a new acting governor was appointed. The entire Cabinet of Ministers resigned to pass powers to the newly elected Oliy Majlis, reflecting a routine shift of government powers. Additionally, numerous regional and law enforcement officials were replaced, signaling ongoing efforts to address governance issues and implement systemic reforms.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Purge/Replace in Q2 2025 and Q4 2024.

India

For India, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• State of Emergency in October: The government in Delhi, India, enforced Stage-2 emergency measures under the Graded Response Action Plan to combat severe air pollution, implementing strict strategies such as construction bans and vehicle restrictions that affected daily life. Additionally, in Manipur, an indefinite curfew was imposed in Churachandpur to address violence linked to alleged sexual harassment, limiting public movement and increasing ethnic tensions. In Karnataka, record rainfall and flooding in Bengaluru led to school and business closures.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted an increase in reporting Civic Space Index in Q1 2025, an increase in reporting Arrests in Q1 2025 and Q4 2024, an increase in reporting Legal Actions in Q1 2025, an increase in reporting Corruption in Q1 2025 and Q4 2024, an increase in reporting Purge/Replace in Q1 2025, and an increase in reporting Lethal Violence in Q3 2024.

We are no longer predicting an increase in reporting on Civic Space Index in Q1 2025.

We did not see a spike in reporting on Arrests in Q4 2024. We are no longer predicting an increase in reporting on Arrests in Q1 2025.

We are no longer predicting an increase in reporting on Legal Actions in Q1 2025.

We did not see a spike in reporting on Corruption in Q4 2024. We are no longer predicting an increase in reporting on Corruption in Q1 2025.

We are no longer predicting an increase in reporting on Purge/Replace in Q1 2025.

We did not see a spike in reporting on Lethal Violence in Q3 2024.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Legal Actions in Q1 2025, and Purge/Replace in Q1 2025, Q2 2025 and Q4 2024.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

Pakistan

For Pakistan, our data includes coverage through November 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in October and November: The Sindh Peoples Students Federation demanded the lifting of the ban on student unions through a press conference in Larkana. Additionally, a rally called for continued support and activism for the Kashmir cause. Advocates in Sindh and Punjab discussed the challenges faced by women agricultural workers at a leadership conference. In November, the detention of a political leader in Pakistan led to significant protests by his party, accompanied by international attention on the country’s human rights issues. In Lahore, a legal petition was filed demanding government action to address severe air pollution.

• Censorship in November: The Ministry of Interior in Pakistan directed the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority to block unauthorized Virtual Private Networks, citing misuse by terrorist groups. Additionally, the PTA blocked over 900,000 links to offensive content as part of a crackdown on illicit online material. The government also implemented partial suspensions of internet and mobile services during Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf protests, affecting platforms like WhatsApp and Instagram. Furthermore, the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority faced a court challenge over its restriction on live reporting of court proceedings.

• Cooperation in October: Pakistan hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Heads of Government Summit in Islamabad, which involved high-level delegations from member and observer countries. Pakistan also focused on deepening strategic cooperation with China and Saudi Arabia, resulting in significant agreements in areas such as economy, investment, and military relations. Additionally, a consensus on the 26th Constitutional Amendment was reached among major political parties. Furthermore, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed memorandums of understanding worth over $2 billion to boost economic collaboration.

• Defamation Cases in September: A defamation suit was filed by the brother of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister against the KP Governor over corruption allegations, while the Sindh High Court criticized a Federal Investigation Agency inquiry as defamatory towards the judiciary. Furthermore, former Prime Minister Imran Khan faced investigation by the Federal Investigation Agency’s Cyber Crime Wing after a controversial social media post.

• Legal Changes in September and October: The Supreme Court Practice and Procedure Amendment Ordinance was challenged in court, with critics claiming it could disrupt judicial independence. A new law regulating public gatherings in Islamabad raised concerns about civil liberties due to its restrictions on unauthorized protests. An amendment to the Election Act was passed, leading to criticism and disputes regarding its impact on democracy. In October, the 26th Constitutional Amendment in Pakistan, focused on judicial reforms, was passed by Parliament despite significant opposition.

• State of Emergency in October and November: A state of emergency was imposed in Islamabad and Rawalpindi during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, resulting in heavy security measures. In Punjab, Section 144 was imposed across multiple cities, restricting political gatherings due to security concerns and unrest. Lahore implemented a “Green Lockdown” to address severe smog conditions. A precautionary state of emergency was declared in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to threats of governor’s rule related to PTI’s protest activities, though the imposition was later denied. A health emergency was declared in Lahore and Multan due to hazardous smog, leading to school closures and partial lockdowns. A three-day curfew in Shakai Tehsil of Lower South Waziristan was imposed due to security operations.

• Protests in October and November: In Karachi, a major protest organized by Jamaat-e-Islami as part of the “Gaza Million March” expressed solidarity with Palestinians. In Islamabad, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) held protests at D-Chowk demanding the release of their founder and opposing constitutional amendments. Black Day observances were held by Pakistanis and Kashmiris worldwide to protest India’s occupation of Jammu and Kashmir, with demonstrations in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. In Balochistan’s Duki district, unrest followed a rocket attack on coal mines that killed at least 20 miners, leading to protests demanding action against the violence. In Islamabad, supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf demanded the release of a former Prime Minister and rejected a constitutional amendment. In Karachi, protests by different groups focused on environmental concerns over coal, prolonged power outages and water shortages, and alleged electoral malpractice.

• Purge/Replace in September: In Balochistan, the National Assembly seat was vacated by the BNP-M chief. A political reshuffle re-categorized 80 Independent members as part of the Sunni Ittehad Council in the National Assembly. The Lahore High Court undertook a major reassignment of 48 lower court judges across the province. In the Supreme Court, there was a change in the judges’ committee with one justice being replaced. Additionally, high-ranking officials in Jacobabad, Sindh, were suspended following security lapses affecting polio workers.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Arrests in Q1 2025.

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Defamation Cases in Q2 2025.