Table 1
Baseline results (2000M01 - 2024M12)
Loughran-McDonald Sentiment
Variable
dRt+1
dRt+2
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
βi -0.24*
(0.13) 		-0.27**
(0.13) 		0.20
(0.15) 		-0.28**
(0.13) 		-0.28**
(0.14) 		0.12
(0.15)
βπ 1.25
(0.97) 		1.02
(0.99) 		-0.09
(1.14) 		0.42
(0.96) 		0.40
(0.99) 		-0.92
(1.14)
βy 2.99***
(1.02) 		2.60**
(1.07) 		4.70***
(1.21) 		2.78***
(1.03) 		2.75**
(1.09) 		4.88***
(1.24)
βsent 0.93
(0.80) 		1.78**
(0.90) 		0.07
(0.81) 		0.81
(0.89)
βterm 11.99***
(1.65) 		11.70***
(1.62)
mfx+1 0.207 0.395 0.015 0.18
Pseudo-R² 0.035 0.039 0.274 0.027 0.027 0.257
Accuracy 0.794 0.794 0.828 0.797 0.797 0.831
χ² 11.87 13.2 93.51 9.24 9.25 86.74
Obs. 262 262 262 261 261 261
Robust standard errors are shown in between brackets. mfx+1 denotes the marginal effect of one S.D. increase of ECB sentiment on the probability of an interest rate increase (dRt+n = +1). *, ** and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively.