Introduction:

  • An apprenticeship is training in a trade that involves a combination of on-the-job training and technical training in the classroom (aka seats).
  • The NDP have big plans:
    • “…committing $1.5 billion to build 26,000 non-market housing units each year.”
    • “… invest $150 million over three years in SkilledTradesBC to double the trade apprentice seats from the current 26,000 to over 50,000.”

Goals:

  1. Use new apprenticeship registrations as a leading indicator for apprenticeship completions.

  2. Look inside the “black box” of apprenticeship.

    • What technical training levels are associated with delay and/or attrition?
    • For those who do not finish how many training levels do they typically complete?

New registrations: a leading indicator

  • We apply historic transition probabilities to the stream of new apprenticeship registrations.

  • We derive these transition probabilities based on Kaplan-Meier (non-parametric) estimation of historic survival data.

  • The main assumption is that these transition dynamics are stable over time

  • … likely to fail if government policy changes in a meaningful way.

In other words, we assume…

  • The arrival rate of new registrants is the constraint on the “production” of Journeypersons.

  • “Production” scales up/down with the arrival rate of registrants, without changes in attrition or delay.

How wrong is the assumption?

  • Doubling cohort size \(\sim\) completion rate decreases by 1.3%.
  • Doubling cohort size \(\sim\) duration increases by 3.6 months.
Proportion that complete Apprenticeship Duration
(Intercept) 0.306*** 23.583***
(<0.001) (<0.001)
log(cohort size) -0.013 3.569***
(0.051) (<0.001)
mean unemployment rate subsequent 4 years 0.022* 0.897
(0.027) (0.184)
Num.Obs. 600 600
R2 0.016 0.102
R2 Adj. 0.013 0.099
p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

A simple forecast based on registrations:

  • Assume for the sake of argument that 50% of those who register complete their apprenticeship, and they all take exactly 48 months to complete.
  • We would form our forecast by adding 48 months to the registration date, and divide the number of new registrants by 2.

A simple forecast:

Simple vs. slightly more realistic transistion probabilities.

Simple vs more realistic forecast:

Estimation:

  • We use Kaplan-Meier and historical completion data to estimate, rather than assume, the transition probabilities.
  • The transition probabilities are the joint probability of “survival thus far” (not yet a Journeyperson) and the instantaneous probability of “death” (graduation).
  1. Survival Curve: the probability of “survival thus far”.
  2. Hazard Rate: the instantaneous probability of “death”, conditional on survival thus far.

Are transition dynamics stable?

  • Yes: we can be more confident in forecasts.
  • No: are we doing better or worse over time?

The Apps:

  • Forecasting completions
  • Inside the black box

Potential co-op opportunities